<< //I haven’t for example, been able to understand whether free trade is really as good as they say.//
I do not think there is a definite answer to that, the answer depends on what kind of economic activity you are involved in. >>
I was simply thinking of present-day US trade policies. At its most naive, when I walk into a store, see a lot of Chinese products, and ask a question if this is anything I should worry about, the prevailing attitude (not to say prevailing ideology) is that yes, it is a good thing for the US. I am just not so sure.
<< //... being able to understand the side effects of possible solutions takes a much deeper knowledge. The assumption is that there are people out there who have enough understanding that they can provide the type of oversight//
I do not think there are such people. For once, I am a great believer in The Law of Unintended Consequences that seems to trample all other laws where large number of humans are involved. Secondly, even if there were people who could foresee all or most of these side effects, the probability that those "seers" could get to ears and minds of the powers that be, would be very small indeed.
The truth is that the world is ruled by alpha people whose main talent is getting to the top and bending other people to their wills.>>
I wrote it a bit tongue in cheek, but it must be said, that somehow human society in general, and Western society in particular, have managed to progress despite all odds. Clearly, somebody somewhere somehow has managed to put in place reasonable policies, or at least 'reasonable' enough not to do too much harm. :)
As for alpha males, there are enough checks and balances in the system, it's just that any prevailing ideology of a generation inevitably gets pushed past its limits of viability, triggering a swing that will eventually go too far in the next generation.
//I walk into a store, see a lot of Chinese products, and ask a question if this is anything I should worry about, the prevailing attitude (not to say prevailing ideology) is that yes, it is a good thing for the US. I am just not so sure//
I am not sure either. For once, the US is losing lots of very useful skills that have to do with ability to actually manufacture things. Secondly, the trade deficit: although the bulk of money paid by the US consumers for Chinese goods stays in the hands of US importers, distributors and retailers, the portion of funds that find its way to China is large enough to cause the weakening of the US economic position vis-a-vis China in the long run.
OTOH, we have lots of less expensive Chinese products in the short run, so the US consumers have had a higher standrds of living over the last fifteen years, plus lots of people in the US made lots of money importing and reselling Chinese goods to the US public.
However, if you ask me, I do not want to mortgage my children's and grandchildren's future for cheap iPods and sneakers now.
//any prevailing ideology of a generation inevitably gets pushed past its limits of viability, triggering a swing that will eventually go too far in the next generation.//
Yes, in our youth we saw how excesses of collectivist 60's and 70's gave rise to the Thatcher-Reagan free-market conservative backlash. It might very well be that we are about to witness a swing in the oppositr direction right now.
And yet, I run into a news item like this - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122445840565148489.html - and realize yet again that I won't be able to untuit my way on free trade. Like I said before, I have a feeling free trade and finance are two areas I will not be able to put off educating myself on in somewhat greater depth forever.
//Yes, in our youth we saw how excesses of collectivist 60's and 70's gave rise to the Thatcher-Reagan free-market conservative backlash. It might very well be that we are about to witness a swing in the opposite direction right now.//
I've been having a feeling for a while that the current polarization of the US politics may be a holding pattern, an interlude before collectivist sentiments take over. One could say more and more people here feel the US should become a bit more like Europe. Obama's presidency may speed up the process, although there are, and will be, enough forces at work that the exact outcome is unpredictable at this point. Perhaps it will be the US that's more like Europe, but in a uniquely American way. Then again, maybe not - we do live in interesting times.
I do not think there is a definite answer to that, the answer depends on what kind of economic activity you are involved in. >>
I was simply thinking of present-day US trade policies. At its most naive, when I walk into a store, see a lot of Chinese products, and ask a question if this is anything I should worry about, the prevailing attitude (not to say prevailing ideology) is that yes, it is a good thing for the US. I am just not so sure.
<< //... being able to understand the side effects of possible solutions takes a much deeper knowledge. The assumption is that there are people out there who have enough understanding that they can provide the type of oversight//
I do not think there are such people. For once, I am a great believer in The Law of Unintended Consequences that seems to trample all other laws where large number of humans are involved. Secondly, even if there were people who could foresee all or most of these side effects, the probability that those "seers" could get to ears and minds of the powers that be, would be very small indeed.
The truth is that the world is ruled by alpha people whose main talent is getting to the top and bending other people to their wills.>>
I wrote it a bit tongue in cheek, but it must be said, that somehow human society in general, and Western society in particular, have managed to progress despite all odds. Clearly, somebody somewhere somehow has managed to put in place reasonable policies, or at least 'reasonable' enough not to do too much harm. :)
As for alpha males, there are enough checks and balances in the system, it's just that any prevailing ideology of a generation inevitably gets pushed past its limits of viability, triggering a swing that will eventually go too far in the next generation.
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I am not sure either. For once, the US is losing lots of very useful skills that have to do with ability to actually manufacture things. Secondly, the trade deficit: although the bulk of money paid by the US consumers for Chinese goods stays in the hands of US importers, distributors and retailers, the portion of funds that find its way to China is large enough to cause the weakening of the US economic position vis-a-vis China in the long run.
OTOH, we have lots of less expensive Chinese products in the short run, so the US consumers have had a higher standrds of living over the last fifteen years, plus lots of people in the US made lots of money importing and reselling Chinese goods to the US public.
However, if you ask me, I do not want to mortgage my children's and grandchildren's future for cheap iPods and sneakers now.
//any prevailing ideology of a generation inevitably gets pushed past its limits of viability, triggering a swing that will eventually go too far in the next generation.//
Yes, in our youth we saw how excesses of collectivist 60's and 70's gave rise to the Thatcher-Reagan free-market conservative backlash. It might very well be that we are about to witness a swing in the oppositr direction right now.
Reply
//Yes, in our youth we saw how excesses of collectivist 60's and 70's gave rise to the Thatcher-Reagan free-market conservative backlash. It might very well be that we are about to witness a swing in the opposite direction right now.//
I've been having a feeling for a while that the current polarization of the US politics may be a holding pattern, an interlude before collectivist sentiments take over. One could say more and more people here feel the US should become a bit more like Europe. Obama's presidency may speed up the process, although there are, and will be, enough forces at work that the exact outcome is unpredictable at this point. Perhaps it will be the US that's more like Europe, but in a uniquely American way. Then again, maybe not - we do live in interesting times.
Reply
Reply
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