TF Doomed...
I was looking over 2007's planned film releases like any good film nerd does, and noticed a couple of things about Transformer's release date.
First of all, 2007 is a busy year for films, with June and July really being loaded up. June includes Disney/Pixar's "Ratatouille" along with "Ocean's 13", the new Die Hard movie and the next Fantastic Four movie (more on this later). Both "Live Free or Die Hard" and "Ratatouille" come out on June 29th. The week before TF's release in theaters.
This means that a lot of parents will be taking their kids to see Pixar's Ratatouille and a lot of adults will be seeing Live Free or Die Hard the week before a release that should do relatively well. The problem is that most people don't go see a movie two weekends in a row, and could skip Transformers when it comes out the next week.
Another problem these two films would bring is the fact that you'll have a powerhouse company (Pixar) and a powerhouse franchise (Die Hard) taking fans away from the Transformers film over the July 4th holiday weekend, further weakening the success that Transformers could possibly have. Truthfully there's not much you can do now that Transformers has steaked their claim and has already begun advertising the film with this release date.
Finally(and possibly most damaging), I'm sure we all remember the fact that Fantastic 4 once held the same date as Transfomers, but moved to June 15th. We were all very happy at might Transformers looked to have, and the fact that it looked like Transformers would be the big July 4th weekend movie.
But here's the thing, I think there's another reason why Fantastic Four decided to change places. Transformers will more likely than not open on July 4th, which is a Wednesday giving them a 5 day "opening weekend" which would include the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th. Historically July 4th openings do really well, and movies with a Wednesday opening are almost always considered "Blockbusters", which helps out the public's perception of a movie.
But here's the thing. Do you know what movie is scheduled to open the following weekend, on Friday July 13th? Right now it looks like hugging Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix holds that distinction. Now we all know that Harry Potter has HUGE openings. We're talking about the fact that none of them have opened to less than $85 Million with the most recent flick coming in at $100 Million plus.
So, that basically means that Transformers, if it stays where it is, will have 5 days and change before it's knocked down the charts below Harry Potter's massive take.