...and like a drunken sailor on shore leave heading towards a brothel with a pocket full of cash, I log onto my trading account and pour money into QLD. So sick.
I was the first person commenting on others lists that the dow would tank to 8000. I now think that's the bottom and am looking to go long on the market and QLD is like QQQQ on steroids. Here are a few reasons why I think we'll come out of this bottom sooner than most people think: My various justifications for investing in the stock market now are below...and in no particular order:
1. The P/E ratios(lower is better) of S&P500 companies is half of what it was during the last market lows 5 years ago at these similar S&P500 price levels. This means to me that it's mostly fear driving down prices. 2. Warren Buffet says be greedy when people are fearful. 3. Warren Buffet says he is currently moving all his money into US stocks and is also betting billions on the indexes being higher years from now than they are currently. He used Berkshire stock as collateral I understand. 4. I've been watching US currency go up ever since the stock market tanked. In my opinion, if our economy was really bad, all the money leaving the stock market wouldn't go straight into US dollars. I think everyone is merely in "time out" mode waiting to throw all that money right back into stocks. 5. I've heard several economists say OPEC needed to cut production in order to keep gas prices from falling. In my opinion, this is contradictory to any recession. In our previous recessions, we made the gas prices drop to less than a dollar/gallon. If economists want to keep gas prices higher, to me, that means they aren't too worried about a recession. 6. For the first time in years, I'm seeing new technologies that I think can boom our economy...alternate energies...solar, wind, etc. and electric cars. Both technologies not only offer jobs, but will result in products that make energy cheaper and put more dollars in consumer pockets. 7. The stock market ALWAYS soars when a democrat is president. 8. Barack Obama is intent on getting tax money back from rich americans and companies who avoid taxes by changing citizenship/business addresses to Cayman/Bahama islands. This extra money will add to our bottom line and strengthen the dollar even more. 9. If you look at the last STEEP Dow declines, there has always been a steep bounce back up within 5 months. I think when you combine that with a new Dem President, it may give the stock market a very steep move up. 10. You can ignore many current stock losses because the stock market always tanks this time of year and some rich guys like kerkorian intentionally sell losses in order to write them off only to buy them again after the new year...thus resulting in the January effect lifting the market. 11. The books I have on the stock market all say that when the stock market tanks, it tanks very hard, very quickly, so, once there is a gigantic slide, it's actually very safe to invest in the market since there is much less chance of further tanking...unless of course something happens like Iran testing a nuke. Similarly, If you look at the past few steepest declines, they are followed by a steep rise to the next support level...which would be somewhere between the Dow10k-11k range.
My various justifications for investing in the stock market now are below...and in no particular order:
1. The P/E ratios(lower is better) of S&P500 companies is half of what it was during the last market lows 5 years ago at these similar S&P500 price levels. This means to me that it's mostly fear driving down prices.
2. Warren Buffet says be greedy when people are fearful.
3. Warren Buffet says he is currently moving all his money into US stocks and is also betting billions on the indexes being higher years from now than they are currently. He used Berkshire stock as collateral I understand.
4. I've been watching US currency go up ever since the stock market tanked. In my opinion, if our economy was really bad, all the money leaving the stock market wouldn't go straight into US dollars. I think everyone is merely in "time out" mode waiting to throw all that money right back into stocks.
5. I've heard several economists say OPEC needed to cut production in order to keep gas prices from falling. In my opinion, this is contradictory to any recession. In our previous recessions, we made the gas prices drop to less than a dollar/gallon. If economists want to keep gas prices higher, to me, that means they aren't too worried about a recession.
6. For the first time in years, I'm seeing new technologies that I think can boom our economy...alternate energies...solar, wind, etc. and electric cars. Both technologies not only offer jobs, but will result in products that make energy cheaper and put more dollars in consumer pockets.
7. The stock market ALWAYS soars when a democrat is president.
8. Barack Obama is intent on getting tax money back from rich americans and companies who avoid taxes by changing citizenship/business addresses to Cayman/Bahama islands. This extra money will add to our bottom line and strengthen the dollar even more.
9. If you look at the last STEEP Dow declines, there has always been a steep bounce back up within 5 months. I think when you combine that with a new Dem President, it may give the stock market a very steep move up.
10. You can ignore many current stock losses because the stock market always tanks this time of year and some rich guys like kerkorian intentionally sell losses in order to write them off only to buy them again after the new year...thus resulting in the January effect lifting the market.
11. The books I have on the stock market all say that when the stock market tanks, it tanks very hard, very quickly, so, once there is a gigantic slide, it's actually very safe to invest in the market since there is much less chance of further tanking...unless of course something happens like Iran testing a nuke. Similarly, If you look at the past few steepest declines, they are followed by a steep rise to the next support level...which would be somewhere between the Dow10k-11k range.
Reply
Leave a comment