My new obsession
So what was a passing interest has quickly grown into an obsession.
I am referring to my interest in what is commonly referred to as the Format Wars and the Console Wars. I just can't get enough of it. For those who don't know I am a hardcore supporter of the Wii and I prefer HD-DVD to Blu-Ray, but have no stakes in the format wars.
After thinking about this more I now at least understand where this obsession has come from, and understanding there is no longer harm in it, as long as I keep it under control.
I monitor a forum about HD Formats, where any press release about PS3, XBox360, or anything related to either format is posted, which has stopped me from annoying my wife and friends by constantly talking about it.
So in my opinion who will win?
While it is definitely too soon to call on either of these fronts, this is my prediction:
First off, there is good evidence that this generation of consoles will be the shortest yet, both Microsoft and Nintendo are known to be working on a new console that will be scheduled to be released as soon as 2010.
While everything I have seen indicates there is VERY strong demand for the Wii, I do not think it will outsell the XBox360. The XBox360 is currently at an estimates worldwide sales of 10.4 million, to Wii's 3 million and the PS3's 1 million shipped (estimated 870,000 sold).
If trends continue as they have been, next Christmas will be a very interesting time for the Console wars, as all three consoles will have enough supply to meet demand by that point.
Gamers continue to buy both the PS3 and the XBox360, however there is good evidence to support that many gamers are holding off on the PS3 until it gets good games (this explains why there are PS3's sitting in stores) there is still demand for the PS3 despite what some may tell you. Sony's biggest struggle is going to be facing up to XBox's 1 year lead and the surprising appeal of the Wii with a $600 price tag that is not likely to fall any time soon. They also have not been very successful in marketing the PS3 as the cheapest Blu-Ray player on the market, it is still viewed as a console.
Sony announced that they expect 5 million units sold by March. That means they are expecting about 500,000 more being sold in Japan (about 2.5 times what has already been sold there), another 2 million here in the US (estimated 670,000 currently), 1 million with the launch in Europe, and 1.5 million in Australia, the rest of North America, and the rest of the world (currently making up collectively about 100,000).
While Sony did do better than the XBox360 did in its first holiday season worldwide, it did not do better than the XBox in the US. Also many of the good games that are coming out have either an equivalent game for the XBox360 or the same game, whereas on top of that the XBox360 has some major titles including Halo3 coming out this year, which will boost sales and give them crucial media coverage right before the holidays.
It is unknown how the Wii will perform, they are sort of the wild card in the Console Wars, as they are targeting non-gamers as well as gamers, and many gamers are just buying Wiis on top of either the XBox360 or the PS3 (or both).
Now the Format Wars are a little more tricky. Its still too soon to give good estimates on it because there are supposed to be some major announcements at CES going on right now. (
intrepidreportr I am envious of you right now... I want to be in Vegas right now damnit!)
If things go as the rumor mill expect, there will be a $200 HD-DVD player announced. HD-DVD already announced that they picked up 4 more major manufacturers including some Chinese manufacturers meaning it is well within their capabilities to release a player that cheap.
Toshiba also just announced a $499 player that is capable of 1080p matching the best BD players at $200 less.
There are now 300 titles for the HD-DVD that are going to be released this year, IIRC that makes about 500 titles total by the end of 2007
So far on the BD (Blu-Ray Disc) side of the house they have announced a new player capable of 1080p at $699 which is the cheapest yet for BD besides the PS3.
Sony announced that they are completely dominating the Format wars with over 1 million Blu-Ray players sold (they are counting every PS3 as a player even though evidence is showing the number actually using it as such may be as low as 5%) and discounting the HD-DVD add-on to the XBox360 when comparing the total numbers (380,000 HD-DVD players to 1,240,000) If you include the add ons (460,000) those numbers are alot closer, and every XBox360 add on means a person who is watching movies on their XBox, unlike PS3s sold.
The Movie sales reflect this, HD-DVD movie sales overall have far outstripped sales for the Blu-Ray (though Blu-Ray is catching up now).
In a general comparison the two formats are now relatively equal on all fronts, HD-DVDs tend to have more advanced features and are cheaper however the BD have more studios (read more movies will be released in BD as long as the studios continue to support BD) including Fox, Sony, and Disney (though Disney is holding off on releasing any major titles ATM).
Bottom line is the Consumer wins on both fronts. Increased competition will make a better product, and its not likely the Format War will end any time soon, likely there will be no clear winner for the next 10 years.
I am referring to my interest in what is commonly referred to as the Format Wars and the Console Wars. I just can't get enough of it. For those who don't know I am a hardcore supporter of the Wii and I prefer HD-DVD to Blu-Ray, but have no stakes in the format wars.
After thinking about this more I now at least understand where this obsession has come from, and understanding there is no longer harm in it, as long as I keep it under control.
I monitor a forum about HD Formats, where any press release about PS3, XBox360, or anything related to either format is posted, which has stopped me from annoying my wife and friends by constantly talking about it.
So in my opinion who will win?
While it is definitely too soon to call on either of these fronts, this is my prediction:
First off, there is good evidence that this generation of consoles will be the shortest yet, both Microsoft and Nintendo are known to be working on a new console that will be scheduled to be released as soon as 2010.
While everything I have seen indicates there is VERY strong demand for the Wii, I do not think it will outsell the XBox360. The XBox360 is currently at an estimates worldwide sales of 10.4 million, to Wii's 3 million and the PS3's 1 million shipped (estimated 870,000 sold).
If trends continue as they have been, next Christmas will be a very interesting time for the Console wars, as all three consoles will have enough supply to meet demand by that point.
Gamers continue to buy both the PS3 and the XBox360, however there is good evidence to support that many gamers are holding off on the PS3 until it gets good games (this explains why there are PS3's sitting in stores) there is still demand for the PS3 despite what some may tell you. Sony's biggest struggle is going to be facing up to XBox's 1 year lead and the surprising appeal of the Wii with a $600 price tag that is not likely to fall any time soon. They also have not been very successful in marketing the PS3 as the cheapest Blu-Ray player on the market, it is still viewed as a console.
Sony announced that they expect 5 million units sold by March. That means they are expecting about 500,000 more being sold in Japan (about 2.5 times what has already been sold there), another 2 million here in the US (estimated 670,000 currently), 1 million with the launch in Europe, and 1.5 million in Australia, the rest of North America, and the rest of the world (currently making up collectively about 100,000).
While Sony did do better than the XBox360 did in its first holiday season worldwide, it did not do better than the XBox in the US. Also many of the good games that are coming out have either an equivalent game for the XBox360 or the same game, whereas on top of that the XBox360 has some major titles including Halo3 coming out this year, which will boost sales and give them crucial media coverage right before the holidays.
It is unknown how the Wii will perform, they are sort of the wild card in the Console Wars, as they are targeting non-gamers as well as gamers, and many gamers are just buying Wiis on top of either the XBox360 or the PS3 (or both).
Now the Format Wars are a little more tricky. Its still too soon to give good estimates on it because there are supposed to be some major announcements at CES going on right now. (
intrepidreportr I am envious of you right now... I want to be in Vegas right now damnit!)
If things go as the rumor mill expect, there will be a $200 HD-DVD player announced. HD-DVD already announced that they picked up 4 more major manufacturers including some Chinese manufacturers meaning it is well within their capabilities to release a player that cheap.
Toshiba also just announced a $499 player that is capable of 1080p matching the best BD players at $200 less.
There are now 300 titles for the HD-DVD that are going to be released this year, IIRC that makes about 500 titles total by the end of 2007
So far on the BD (Blu-Ray Disc) side of the house they have announced a new player capable of 1080p at $699 which is the cheapest yet for BD besides the PS3.
Sony announced that they are completely dominating the Format wars with over 1 million Blu-Ray players sold (they are counting every PS3 as a player even though evidence is showing the number actually using it as such may be as low as 5%) and discounting the HD-DVD add-on to the XBox360 when comparing the total numbers (380,000 HD-DVD players to 1,240,000) If you include the add ons (460,000) those numbers are alot closer, and every XBox360 add on means a person who is watching movies on their XBox, unlike PS3s sold.
The Movie sales reflect this, HD-DVD movie sales overall have far outstripped sales for the Blu-Ray (though Blu-Ray is catching up now).
In a general comparison the two formats are now relatively equal on all fronts, HD-DVDs tend to have more advanced features and are cheaper however the BD have more studios (read more movies will be released in BD as long as the studios continue to support BD) including Fox, Sony, and Disney (though Disney is holding off on releasing any major titles ATM).
Bottom line is the Consumer wins on both fronts. Increased competition will make a better product, and its not likely the Format War will end any time soon, likely there will be no clear winner for the next 10 years.