Expecto Patronus: or How the Wizarding World Really Works (Part 1)

[pharnabazus]

This essay is very long so I'm breaking it up into parts, but it's really meant to be read all together, with each section building on the previous ones.

Comments

[pharnabazus]

I think that Muggle technology is helpless before magic (it won't even work where there's a lot of magic around). Both have developed considerably in the last few centuries, especially in terms of communication, but wizards have always had the edge.

The chief weakness of wizards (in the event of a hypothetical conflict with Muggles) is their comparative lack of numbers; to even maintain their own numbers (and hence maintain their hegemony over goblins and other magical peoples) they need new blood from the Muggle world. Ron is almost certainly right in saying that if it weren't for the Muggle-born, "we'd have died out."

For every wizard there are probably several thousand Muggles. That means it would be almost impossible for a wizarding caste to rule Muggles directly, even if it were the full time job of nearly all wizards - but Muggles can still be manipulated (and hence more easily controlled) by subterfuge, secrecy, and (above all) misinformation. Magic has a far greater potential to control Muggle society, as long as Muggles don't know it exists. You can't fight any opponent, if you don't know he exists.

I suspect that (if Muggles knew about wizards - let us say, if memory charms no longer worked) a conflict would be a very messy business. Some Muggles would (in time) work out how magic worked, and they would probably have at least some wizards on their side. Both worlds have their internal divisions, and wizarding unity in the face of Muggles is actually a consequence of Secrecy. So it wouldn't simply be a matter of wizards on one side, and Muggles on the other. In the short term, Dark curses like Imperius could be used to set Muggle powers against one another. Ultimately, I think that for a wizarding victory to be secure the wizards would have to cull Muggle numbers drastically (probably by setting Muggle nations against each other) and this would horrify most wizards (at least under present conditions). Quite apart from the inhumanity, the risk of fallout of various kinds would be horrendous.

Anyway, the idea of working out how to end separation isn't even discussed in the wizarding world. I think this must mean that thoughtful wizards are genuinely terrified of what might happen if Wizarding Secrecy came to an end.

[anyro]

True, but regarding the importance of total numbers, I disagree. Think how very few people rule this RL world through money and weapons. Experts on the importance of economic giants say fewer people rule the world today than it was the case in the times of Absolute monarchies. Do you think magic would have so much less power than money?

[pharnabazus]

What you are suggesting is (in effect) a return to the age of wizard-kings.

Well, you do have a point. Technology has certainly made possible a centralisation of power that no ancien regime could dream of matching, frustrated as they were by local vested interests and poor communications.

The real problem is that any financial oligarchy (if a small enough minority) needs a much larger number of willing servants to make its will felt. A wizarding oligarchy would be the same. To fully control the Muggles, they would have to recruit large numbers of Muggle collaborators, and give them access to magical technology (ready-made charms, magical artefacts) - some of which would surely leak out, along with knowledge of the true powers, capabilities and weaknesses of the wizarding world. This could be extremely dangerous, if wizards ever got divided, as they surely would. It's the need to keep hidden from Muggles (and the consequent siege mentality) which keeps the wizarding world so united in the first place.

Actually, powerful economic interests can best get their way by borrowing the tactics of the wizarding world, by keeping a low profile and hiding themselves behind elected semi-puppets. It is actually easiest for wizards to control Muggles (should they wish to) by adjusting their present course, than by attempting to interfere openly.

My point is that if the wizarding world were known to Muggles, they could (in theory) plan against it. True power always lies in secrecy. If no one even knows you exist, they simply can't react against you, and certainly can't overthrow you.

Having said that, a centralisation of power in the Muggle world in some ways could serve wizarding interests. The fewer people share real power, the easier it must be to keep an eye on them.

[anyro]

Why would a wizard oligarchy have to dish out its power to collaborating Muggles? The financial oligarchy seems to work just fine without magic.

My point is: Either, magic is powerful enough to rule & save the world. In this case, why don't the witches and wizards do so? (True, they would fight among themselves about who exactly got to rule, and maybe some might want to save rather than rule the world, but a little war & dead civilians has never hurt any real power very much.) Or, magic is just not powerful enough, and witches and wizards are in danger. What's the big point about magic then, anyway? Bannishing cushions?

[persephone_kore]

I think that Muggle technology is helpless before magic (it won't even work where there's a lot of magic around). Both have developed considerably in the last few centuries, especially in terms of communication, but wizards have always had the edge.

Hmmm... well, I imagine you're right about direct opposition, but on the other hand, some Muggle technology eliminates the need to rely exclusively on human reflexes. (Also, what counts as Muggle technology? Magic can alter the laws of physics or how they apply, but they usually seem to operate fairly predictably when nothing is actively changing them. I got the impression it's primarily electronics that fail to work due to ambient magical interference....)

Hm. The threshold for the interference would be interesting, too. Electronics don't work at Hogwarts -- but that's a thousand-year-old institution expressly FOR doing and learning to do magic, much of it presumably a bit on the inefficient side, and is heavily enchanted besides. How intense does the ambient magic have to be to cause interference? How complex do the electronics have to be -- or is it just any electrical current going haywire? Would a battery-operated radio, say, fail to work in the Black house? Fail to pick up? Short out? Explode? Would magnetic cassette tapes be wiped clean? How about the Weasley house? (Lock picks, which are not electronic, seem to be perfectly fine, but Fred and George refer to it as doing things the Muggle way. Are locks and keys as opposed to charms also the Muggle way, or would going to that point lead before long to the question of whether walls instead of enchantments are considered Muggle?)

Okay, I'm just meandering verbally now. Still, I did originally have a point, which was that building up enough ambient magic for Muggle technology to stop working might not be terribly easy or effective in most situations. *g*

[neotoma]

How complex do the electronics have to be -- or is it just any electrical current going haywire?

So far as I know, it's only the electronics that go haywire -- Hermione pointing out that electronic bugs won't work at Hogwarts.

But the chemical reactions needed to make wood burn are the same that make gunpowder burn -- and wood *definitely* burns at Hogwarts. All Muggles need to do to capture Hogwarts is scale back to 19th century military technology.

Napoleon took most of Europe with early 19th century tech, and he was fighting similiarly equipped foes. Wizards against Muggles would be a slaughter, even given that as individuals Wizards can kill easily and frequently -- they're outnumbered thousands to one, limited to line-of-sight (as far as we know), and really really *bad* at working together. Muggles have numerical superiority, organization, and artillery on their side.

[persephone_kore]

Hmm.

I suppose one difficulty from the Muggles' side of things would be finding it. Carelessly as some wizards seem to rely at times on Muggles' simply not believing what they see and thus dismissing it (not the first place I've seen that ploy, either), concealment does seem to be pretty well developed.

But then I guess that goes back to the point of how the easiest thing for the wizards to do is maintain secrecy.

[pharnabazus]

Yes, to a Muggle Hogwarts would appear as an empty ruin in an uninhabited part of the mountains. Neither their eyes nor their technology would detect anything.

There also seems to be quite a system of Muggle-repellant charms, with some sort of mental manipulation effects. A Muggle that got too close would simply not want to get any closer, and would be bombarded with suddenly urgent reminders of other things he ought to be doing. (I suppose a really strong-minded Muggle who know what was happening might be able to resist these pressures, especially if a renegade wizard provided some sort of charm to protect him.)

Of course, the Black house in Grimmauld Place would have had even stronger protections than Hogwarts, even before Dumbledore made himself the Order's Secret-Keeper. It is actually Unplottable, so to a Muggle it simply doesn't even exist. The same might be true of Diagon Alley.

[kinsfire]

Of course, I find myself wondering if magic can affect a satellite photograph...or a nuke...