Muddling through
There was an interesting piece from James Mackintosh in the FT on Saturday, where he acted the grim reaper for equities. He observed (and I paraphrase here) that if we recovered and interest rates went up, the appeal of equities relative to gilts would collapse, whereas if the economy did not recover, current dividend levels were unsustainable,
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Another difference this time round is that it has been far more central London-centric. The older shift was more generally dispersed throughout the more employed and better paid South-east. The newer shift has been based on foreign cash buying top-flight central London properties and the rest benefiting from a trickle-down effect.
Vodafone has been a stock of mine for some time as well (I bought it when it stopped being capital growth and started paying good divis)! I think that they did a special dividend about five years ago, and that's about the most exciting thing that has happened to it. Up to about 24 stocks now, I think. Sold half my William Hill (up nearly 100% in a couple of years) and put that plus some dividend cash into Land Securities. Also put in money for the Direct Line float, which has also done ok.
I have to agree that we'll be in for a semi-Japan situation (with stagflation rather than deflation) for five years. I really can't see interest rates going up during that period (famous last words, of course) because to do so would bring about a depression to end all depresions. What government would do that voluntarily?
I've ordered a sale of my 100% index-linked allocation in my Informa pension fund, BTW. I think ILs are fully priced now. Will tell you where my money has gone when the deal is made. Perhaps you can guess?
PJ
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