Wrapped up

Oct 17, 2011 14:33

Blogs aren't dying; I'm just getting older and busier. I spent last weekend just recovering (and very pleasant it was too), and I certainly didn't feel like writing anything about the economy. I didn't even buy a Financial Times or Guardian on Saturday. And I didn't miss them.

I did manage to catch up with a movie (Barry Lyndon, just the 35 years late) and a TV series (the US version of The Killing which, to my shock, actually stops half-way through the Danish series!) There will be a Series 2 next year, presumably completing the whole of the first series of Forbrydelsen series 1. However, there was a fairly dramatic diversion from the original plot at the end of episode 13 (or was it episode 12?) and one has to feel that the series fell away from its earlier more faithful devotion to the Danish original. Series 2 will also be 13 hours long, meaning that it will be longer than the original series in Denmark (by some six hours) and will probably head off even more into its own territory.

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The training is going sort of well. Just a five-day illness had a fairly bad effect on the training schedule, but I'm now back on track. I managed two tough weight sessions and two tough cardio sessions from Monday to Thursday last week, but then I just chilled out for three days, which is not good. On the plus side, I kept to a fairly reasonable diet (lots of steak, eggs, no cheese, no chocolate biscuits), although I do now have a sad penchant for honey on toast.

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On Friday euro-dollar hit #1.3850, so I took out a small short position, planning to increase it if it goes up to 1.400 and if it goes down to 1.3680. Well, that was what I thought I had done, but it was Friday, so I was at just about my most tired for the week. Only after clicking "trade" did I see that I had gone short on Cable (£/$) rather than €/$. Whoop.s. Cancelling the Cable trade stratightaway would cost me £6, so I just let it run, and went short €/$ as well. It makes my position a bit larger than I would like at this level, where I think there's probably a 60% chance that it will go up to $1.4000. But we're now in a situation where the good news for the euro is mainly factored in, whereas the bad news could have a strong downward impact.

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I'm still winning this month at cards, nearly all on pokerstars. I still can't hit gold on that darned PAS/RTR freeroll on Party (EV, $50). This time I managed to run 77 into QQ and AA on a QJ7 DS board. Luckily I'd built up a stack, so I was only put back to 14BB. That carried on until my KTs on the button was called by 99 in the BB, and I got no help (as usual, in this tourney, which is a total bok).

Although over the years Party Poker has been my biggest winner (some $38k-worth), I've never gained anything from its various possible bonuses. After eight years I've never had a sniff of the bad beat jackpot (I know one player who got two in a week!), which, given the hands I've played on Jackpot tables, seems a bit harsh. Neither have I ever had a decent cash in the normally 70-runner or so PAS/RTR freerolls. That's particularly galling because I play just as well as I do on the Stars tourneys, but never seem to get a much-needed break.

The profit this month on cards has pushed me back into the black for the year, by a minuscule amount. I'm determined to get the overall open play line into the black by the end of the year (if not the open-play line for 2011). I'm currently about a grand down on Stars over the past three and a bit years (the No Limit period), with about $19k paid in rake. Obviously I'm in front overall because of various bonuses, tournament freerolls and so on. But I really would like to get the open play numbers into the black. (In terms of EV, btw, I'm about $2k in the black, but even after 600k hands it's possible to run bad to the tune of 30 buy-ins).

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