The Human Tsunami -- Tracking the Summer of Love Toward Death

[peristaltor]

People occassionally accuse me of being cynical. I don't think I am. I am just seeing the world around me, and extrapolating on possible causes and effects. Sometimes I project these extrapolations toward tomorrow.

Take the Baby Boomers.

Comments

[beachofdreams]

Actually, after reading this I started to think about the possibilities for a post-retirement Green economy. It goes something like this:

Given the foreseeable rise in energy costs (and perhaps many commodities viz. a possible carbon tax (is the latter too much to ask?)), and given the fact that a frenzy of liquidation of assets will free up money to be disposed of some other way, is it not concievable that this disposable cash will be directed (given energy prices/taxes) along more localized, 'home/community' improvement lines? After all, I can't see grandma and grandpa deciding to travel the world when air travel is that much more expensive, or deciding to buy that winnebago they've always wanted by the same token. Instead, they may want to invest in a new solar or wind powered home (as long as local regulations don't get in the way); some new landscaping, or they may just settle in and decide to invest into their communities.

The economy will shift whether or not the boomers decide to cash in. Perhaps this is the energy and shift in zeitgeist that is needed in order to give rise to a higher degree of sustainable development in the future.

Of course, like you say, there will be casualties in the process, and deficits like the one that you described above will no doubt prove reparative measures to be very challenging to implement. Then again, we could always try to shift the tax burden (like I said above and on the peak oil board several weeks ago) to carbon, and off of income; that might, at the very least, soften the blow; then again it may not. I mean, I don't have a very good knowledge of economics (well, I do have somewhat of a knowledge, but I need to brush up and read a few books), but I think (and hope) that this might be where we are headed.

[plantyhamchuk]

(I'm about to make some gross generalizations here)
The only problem is that, if the stereotypes hold true, the boomers wouldn't be interested in investing in their homes, or other long term type things. Having worked hard all their lives, raising kids, investing, many view retirement as "me time". The time when the finally get to cash in and use all the money, travel, enjoy time with their grandkids, etc. A home? They won't be around to enjoy it. Perhaps some will be interested in leaving some kind of positive legacy, but only if they grow out of the whole "me generation" thing.

[peristaltor]

After all, I can't see grandma and grandpa deciding to travel the world when air travel is that much more expensive, or deciding to buy that winnebago they've always wanted by the same token.

Actually, I spoke with a coworker the other day, who has a sister that works in a credit union. She was amazed that loan requests for RVs are on a sharp increase, even given fuel prices. That was one of the reasons I wrote yesterday.

It does defy rationality.

plantyhamchuk's observation about the self-centered Me Generation thinking seems to apply here.

It's also the very reason I started home_effinomic. I hope to explore ways to improve home consumption efficiencies in ways that help the bottom line. This appeals to both sides of what many call a irreconcilable divide; those that care about environmental issues, and those that give a crap only about their disposable income.

This (should it catch on) would also divest the market of assets before the retirees need to liquidate to pay for housing and medical care. Such an early withdrawal could seriously soften the unBoom.