For those of you still unfamiliar with M. King Hubbert and his now-famous theory of "peak oil," do look up Wiki entries on his name and theory. If you don't, not only will this entry seem curious (if not completely unhinged), but so will reality.
If you're still curious about what this might mean for, well, everyone on earth, (
join me as I point out landmarks on the road to simplicity. )
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Ah, a good point. The answer is yes, that is exactly what's happening. Your following point about the "real cost-benefit of buses versus cars" doesn't apply to the transit officials, though, since they don't pay for the cars.
Remember, most municipal transit agencies started as for-profit alternative transport competing against horses, stages, and horse and electric trolleys. Only later were they de-privatized, once cars began to compete effectively and the for-profit no longer made profit. Much of the profit mindset of operations still exists.
We'll see how much taxpayers are willing to shell to keep transit alive. It will depend, I think, on how difficult it becomes to do business without it.
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Also, I'm planning on getting my backup/secondary electric bike fixed this week.
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The news that Orion is closing, on the other hand, exposes a flaw in the system: reliance on government for these kinds of services. I predict that something else will emerge to help people move about, but I have no idea what that will be.
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I think the flaw here is how governments are funded, and the particular susceptibility of their funding structures to suffer during economic downturns. Change that structure, change the profitability of technological solutions bridging the downturn in energy availability.
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4) Move the business that depend on low-wage workers back towards the low-wage workers, back towards the inner-ring suburbs and the city, and make the white-flight upper middle class and rich people be the ones who do the long-distance commuting. Or else find some way to carve out gated whites-only upper-middle-class and rich enclaves downtown again. Either way, shorten the commute for workers.
As I say, it wasn't even seriously considered. But with the era of Cheap Oil coming to a grinding halt, I remain confident that #4 is the one they're going to have to eventually choose. But they'll fight it tooth and nail to the last possible minute, no matter what it costs them and no matter what it costs the country and no matter what it costs the world.
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I agree, the forth is the most likely long-term option, and the one that will be fought the hardest. The segregation opportunities brought by cheap petroleum-fueled transport are found frickin' everywhere. There's a parkway in New York deliberately built with 9-foot overpass crossings, too low for buses, to deter the bus-riding black folk from visiting the beach.
For another more local example, here in Seattle we are now tearing down The Alaska Way Viaduct over our waterfront, built back in 1949. It was built to re-route traffic passing through downtown from the North end (north of the Ship Canal) heading to build airplanes at Boeing (just south of downtown). Why didn't Boeing workers simply move closer to the factory (other than airplane noise, I mean)? Boeing jobs were white and good- ( ... )
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