Remodeling the Economic Future

[peristaltor]

Decades ago I dated a chess player, a very good chess player, one who trained with chess masters and knew first hand many of the names in competition at that time. One day in the smokey basement pub where chess players meet to play, she came back from a game downright pissed off

Comments

[peristaltor]

". . . it shatters the parameters of the perceived reality of their chosen endeavor."

Exactly. Why invest in a good education in whatever field when it doesn't work against competition unknown to the teachers? And don't get me started on scholarly investment in theory. They have a saying in science -- that it advances one funeral at a time.

[pope_guilty]

Reminds me of boardgame enthusiasts who cry about games where a first timer has any chance at all.

[peristaltor]

Really, if you can't share flaunt your expertise by crushing n00bs, what's the point in playing?

[ankh_f_n_khonsu]

This was a well-connected, thorough essay. Cheers for sharing!

Unless I'm mistaken, you seem to think of these misguided economic projections as "failures", whereas I see them as successes. An outcome that produced wealth disparity on the scale we're living with now didn't happen by accident. To connect it back to your governing metaphor, rather than trying to catch a meal, it's a little like a chess master toying with a school of fish.

Have you seen Adam Curtis's "The Mayfair Set"?

[peristaltor]

Thanks!

As to "failure" verses "success," I think one would have to define either. I find fault in the economists that hyped the expansion while downplaying or dismissing the exposure that led to the bubble's pop. Yes, this could have been deliberate; but that would have required massive coordination. I'm not saying it wasn't coordinated, just that an alternative explanation -- that the mental models adopted by most economists combined with their financial needs -- removes many of the variables needed to maintain a global conspiracy.

Essentially, there are enough known human tendencies and foibles that, when applied to a situation like this, obviate a conspiracy of all. It's Occam's Razor. Those that participated in the buildup wanted to, perhaps wholeheartedly, perhaps knowing what might happen, perhaps because they needed the money; those that warned of impending doom were simply dismissed.

I have not seen "Mayfair." Not on Netflix.

[ankh_f_n_khonsu]

I think you might be front-loading "global conspiracy" with a bit of bias. There's a common set of values underlying the game being played, but that doesn't mean they're all in bed together.

Politics is the conspiracy of the unproductive but organized against the productive but unorganized. - Joseph Sobran

[albionwood]

Great post! Ties in with a lot of what I've been reading and pondering lately

[peristaltor]

"One thing about high-level chess, much of it is about getting into your opponent's head."

I just flashed on those lessons. Her instructor was indeed not only relating historic games, he was suggesting that certain strategies might lead to certain outcomes, and then suggested certain historic counter-strategies to foil those offensive strategies. He was indeed teaching her how to get into a match-level opponent's head in order to anticipate the probable next moves, not (as I assumed) teaching her the pros and cons of various known strategies.

But yeah, with enough memory a computer need only mentally conjure an entire history of games based on playing with itself, or simply following a trail of probable moves too complex for the human opponent. Great point!