My election analysis
Hello all,
I have spent more than a week on this project, crunching the data when I have had time to do so between work, school, family, and OTO matters. It is my breakdown of each state's polling results over the last several months of the Presidential Election cycle. Seeing these and how they have been trending have given me the opportunity to predict which candidate will take each state. Based on this data, I believe I have good numbers to show, with little doubt, who will be winning this election.
Alabama (9):
This is a strong center of Republican support, like many southern states.
Projected Winner: McCain
Alaska (3):
This is Palin’s home state and a Republican stronghold. A definite win for Republicans.
Projected Winner: McCain
Arizona (10):
This is McCain’s home state, and they will be loyal.
Projected Winner: McCain
Arkansas (6):
Arkansas may be Bill Clinton’s home state, but McCain has definitely found a home state here in the polls for Election 2008.
Projected Winner: McCain
California (55):
Few states are better friends to Democrats than California. This one’s a no-brainer.
Projected Winner: Obama
Colorado (9):
Colorado is a battleground state that has zigzagged quite a lot in the polls during this election. However, beginning in October, there has been a definite trend showing Obama gaining in strength. I think that he may take this one.
Projected Winner: Obama
Connecticut (7):
Connecticut, like all northeastern states this election, is strongly for Obama.
Projected Winner: Obama
Delaware (3):
This is Joseph Biden’s home state. It is diehard Democratic.
Projected Winner: Obama
District of Columbia (3):
Tiny, but it represents the strongest percentage of support for Obama in the Union.
Projected Winner: Obama
Florida (27):
These are some of the most contested electoral votes in the nation. The two candidates fought over this state through August and September, but Obama has begun to pull away in October. With these trends, things are looking worse and worse for McCain. Given all this, I have to give this one to Obama.
Projected Winner: Obama
Georgia (15):
There could be an upset here. McCain support has been solid all through the election year, but as of late the polls on Obama have been on an upswing. If this trend continues as it has been, the two candidates could be at a dead heat on Election Day. McCain may take this one, but Obama has a longshot chance.
Projected Winner: Tossup
Hawaii (4):
Obama was born in Hawaii and is a Democratic stronghold.
Projected Winner: Obama
Idaho (4):
Idaho is a Republican stronghold.
Projected Winner: McCain
Illinois (21)
Obama is an Illinois Senator. This state is his for keeps.
Projected Winner: Obama
Indiana (11)
Indiana is traditionally one of the jewels in the Republican crown. In this election cycle, however, the Republican dominance is very thin. I think that McCain will probably take this state, but the weakness of his support here should serve as a wake-up call.
Projected Winner: McCain
Iowa (7):
Bush ended up taking this state in 2004, but Obama has completely blown away McCain this time according to the polls. This is one of the upsets of this election cycle.
Projected Winner: Obama
Kansas (6):
Kansas is McCain country like many of its neighbor states.
Projected Winner: McCain
Kentucky (8):
Kentucky is firmly in the Republican camp.
Projected Winner: McCain
Louisiana (9):
Without question, Louisiana will go to McCain.
Projected Winner: McCain
Maine (4):
Obama’s lead here has been shrinking in recent days, but he has held a lead here for the duration of this election season. I don’t see him losing it just yet.
Projected Winner: Obama
Maryland (10):
This is a very safe ten points for the Democrats. Obama is way ahead.
Projected Winner: Obama
Massachusetts (12):
Massachusetts is a Democratic stronghold.
Projected Winner: Obama
Michigan (17):
Obama’s lead here was fairly thin in the past, but more recently took a huge surge. I think he has run away with this one.
Projected Winner: Obama
Minnesota (10):
The polls have gone up and the polls have gone down, but Obama has stayed on top here time and time again throughout the vast majority of the election. I see a Democratic victory in this state:
Projected Winner: Obama
Mississippi (6):
Support for McCain here has remained pretty constant here. He will take it.
Projected Winner: McCain
Missouri (11):
For most of this election season, McCain spent the majority of the time on top. As Election Day grew nearer, however, so did the polling results. I’m not sure how this one will turn out.
Projected Winner: Tossup
Montana (3):
McCain’s lead in the polls in Montana hasn’t always been consistent here, but there is enough of a trend to know who is favored here overall.
Projected Winner: McCain
Nebraska (5):
This is a typical heartland state. Obama doesn’t have a chance here.
Projected Winner: McCain
Nevada (5):
Nevada is a battleground state. Both candidates are going to be fighting for this one.
Projected Winner: Tossup
New Hampshire (4):
New Hampshire tends to be a bit more conservative than the other New England states, but you wouldn’t know it in this election. Democratic support here is strong.
Projected Winner: Obama
New Jersey (15):
New Jersey, like northeastern states in general, are Democratic base
Projected Winner: Obama
New Mexico (5):
The polls have gone back and forth all through the election process, but have stayed predominantly on the Democratic side. I think that Obama has this one.
Projected Winner: Obama
New York (31):
Lots of safe electoral points for Obama here.
Projected Winner: Obama
North Carolina (15):
This state represents the furthest influence of Obama into Dixie. Last election, there was no question of Republican strength here. Now, it could go either way.
Projected Winner: Tossup
North Dakota (3):
This is a heartland state that was very strongly for Bush in 2004. A look at the polls there now show how much things have changed. There have been some very wide zigs and zags in the polling numbers. McCain may prevail here, but I have my doubts.
Projected Winner: Tossup
Ohio (20):
This state, just like last election, is a battleground state. There is a lot of ups and downs for both candidates in Ohio and it should be monitored carefully.
Projected Winner: Tossup
Oklahoma (6):
Strong McCain support here-unquestionable.
Projected Winner: McCain
Oregon (7):
Oregon has sided with Obama throughout the campaign and is not going to stop now. The Dems will win here.
Projected Winner: Obama
Pennsylvania (21):
This state is a Democratic stronghold. Obama will win here.
Projected Winner: Obama
Rhode Island (4):
The smallest state in the Union is not small when it comes to support for Obama.
Projected Winner: Obama
South Carolina (8):
This is Republican base. No surprises here.
Projected Winner: McCain
South Dakota (3):
True to its heartland roots, South Dakota is safe Republican territory.
Projected Winner: McCain
Tennessee (11):
Like most Southern states, Tennessee will go to the Republicans.
Projected Winner: McCain
Texas (34):
The Lone Star State is the brightest star in the Republican constellation of support. Obama won’t be able to catch up to McCain here.
Projected Winner: McCain
Utah (5):
Utah is among the strongest supporters of Republicans for President in the Union.
Projected Winner: McCain
Vermont (3):
Vermont is a very strong Democratic stronghold.
Projected Winner: Obama
Virginia (13):
This one is a shocker. Liberals from the suburbs of D.C. have made a difference here. Democratic strength has been mounting from a Summer of dead heat polling. The numbers go up and the numbers go down, but the trends show that this state will finish blue.
Projected Winner: Obama
Washington (11):
This year, like last year, Washington has been a consistently Democratic state. Obama will take this one.
Projected Winner: Obama
West Virginia (5):
McCain’s support has been steadily eroding here as of late. I’m not sure just at this point who is going to take this one.
Projected Winner: Tossup
Wisconsin (10):
Obama’s lead here is not very strong, but it has been largely consistent, and that is all that is needed to point to a victory here:
Projected Winner: Obama
Wyoming (3):
Wyoming is in the heart of Republican territory. It will go for McCain.
Projected Winner: McCain
Breakdown:
Projected Democratic:
California (55)
Colorado (9)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Florida (27)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Iowa (7)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New Mexico (5)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)
Washington (11)
Wisconsin (10)
Total (313)
Projected Republican:
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Utah (5)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Wyoming (3)
Total (154)
Projected Tossup:
Georgia (15)
Missouri (11)
Nevada (5)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (20)
West Virginia (5)
Total (71)
These projections are made based on state polling data from http://www.electoral-vote.com. If you doubt any of my conclusions, have a look here and see for yourself.
Criteria:
If the polls favor a candidate over an extended period of time and the trend points to them retaining this lead, then it is projected that the said candidate will take the state on November 4. If polls have been zigzagging for a considerable amount of time or the graphs are trending towards a tie by Election Day, the state is labeled a tossup. Judgments have been made as objectively as possible.
Projected results:
Not counting the tossup states, Obama wins by a landslide at 313-154. If McCain gets all of the tossup states (which is unlikely), he gets 225 points and loses. If he gets all these and gets Florida as well, Obama still wins 286-252. If he gets all of the tossup states, Florida AND Virginia, Obama STILL wins at 273-265.
Barring a BIG shake-up or disaster, this appears to point to a clear Obama victory for this year’s Presidential elections.
I have spent more than a week on this project, crunching the data when I have had time to do so between work, school, family, and OTO matters. It is my breakdown of each state's polling results over the last several months of the Presidential Election cycle. Seeing these and how they have been trending have given me the opportunity to predict which candidate will take each state. Based on this data, I believe I have good numbers to show, with little doubt, who will be winning this election.
Alabama (9):
This is a strong center of Republican support, like many southern states.
Projected Winner: McCain
Alaska (3):
This is Palin’s home state and a Republican stronghold. A definite win for Republicans.
Projected Winner: McCain
Arizona (10):
This is McCain’s home state, and they will be loyal.
Projected Winner: McCain
Arkansas (6):
Arkansas may be Bill Clinton’s home state, but McCain has definitely found a home state here in the polls for Election 2008.
Projected Winner: McCain
California (55):
Few states are better friends to Democrats than California. This one’s a no-brainer.
Projected Winner: Obama
Colorado (9):
Colorado is a battleground state that has zigzagged quite a lot in the polls during this election. However, beginning in October, there has been a definite trend showing Obama gaining in strength. I think that he may take this one.
Projected Winner: Obama
Connecticut (7):
Connecticut, like all northeastern states this election, is strongly for Obama.
Projected Winner: Obama
Delaware (3):
This is Joseph Biden’s home state. It is diehard Democratic.
Projected Winner: Obama
District of Columbia (3):
Tiny, but it represents the strongest percentage of support for Obama in the Union.
Projected Winner: Obama
Florida (27):
These are some of the most contested electoral votes in the nation. The two candidates fought over this state through August and September, but Obama has begun to pull away in October. With these trends, things are looking worse and worse for McCain. Given all this, I have to give this one to Obama.
Projected Winner: Obama
Georgia (15):
There could be an upset here. McCain support has been solid all through the election year, but as of late the polls on Obama have been on an upswing. If this trend continues as it has been, the two candidates could be at a dead heat on Election Day. McCain may take this one, but Obama has a longshot chance.
Projected Winner: Tossup
Hawaii (4):
Obama was born in Hawaii and is a Democratic stronghold.
Projected Winner: Obama
Idaho (4):
Idaho is a Republican stronghold.
Projected Winner: McCain
Illinois (21)
Obama is an Illinois Senator. This state is his for keeps.
Projected Winner: Obama
Indiana (11)
Indiana is traditionally one of the jewels in the Republican crown. In this election cycle, however, the Republican dominance is very thin. I think that McCain will probably take this state, but the weakness of his support here should serve as a wake-up call.
Projected Winner: McCain
Iowa (7):
Bush ended up taking this state in 2004, but Obama has completely blown away McCain this time according to the polls. This is one of the upsets of this election cycle.
Projected Winner: Obama
Kansas (6):
Kansas is McCain country like many of its neighbor states.
Projected Winner: McCain
Kentucky (8):
Kentucky is firmly in the Republican camp.
Projected Winner: McCain
Louisiana (9):
Without question, Louisiana will go to McCain.
Projected Winner: McCain
Maine (4):
Obama’s lead here has been shrinking in recent days, but he has held a lead here for the duration of this election season. I don’t see him losing it just yet.
Projected Winner: Obama
Maryland (10):
This is a very safe ten points for the Democrats. Obama is way ahead.
Projected Winner: Obama
Massachusetts (12):
Massachusetts is a Democratic stronghold.
Projected Winner: Obama
Michigan (17):
Obama’s lead here was fairly thin in the past, but more recently took a huge surge. I think he has run away with this one.
Projected Winner: Obama
Minnesota (10):
The polls have gone up and the polls have gone down, but Obama has stayed on top here time and time again throughout the vast majority of the election. I see a Democratic victory in this state:
Projected Winner: Obama
Mississippi (6):
Support for McCain here has remained pretty constant here. He will take it.
Projected Winner: McCain
Missouri (11):
For most of this election season, McCain spent the majority of the time on top. As Election Day grew nearer, however, so did the polling results. I’m not sure how this one will turn out.
Projected Winner: Tossup
Montana (3):
McCain’s lead in the polls in Montana hasn’t always been consistent here, but there is enough of a trend to know who is favored here overall.
Projected Winner: McCain
Nebraska (5):
This is a typical heartland state. Obama doesn’t have a chance here.
Projected Winner: McCain
Nevada (5):
Nevada is a battleground state. Both candidates are going to be fighting for this one.
Projected Winner: Tossup
New Hampshire (4):
New Hampshire tends to be a bit more conservative than the other New England states, but you wouldn’t know it in this election. Democratic support here is strong.
Projected Winner: Obama
New Jersey (15):
New Jersey, like northeastern states in general, are Democratic base
Projected Winner: Obama
New Mexico (5):
The polls have gone back and forth all through the election process, but have stayed predominantly on the Democratic side. I think that Obama has this one.
Projected Winner: Obama
New York (31):
Lots of safe electoral points for Obama here.
Projected Winner: Obama
North Carolina (15):
This state represents the furthest influence of Obama into Dixie. Last election, there was no question of Republican strength here. Now, it could go either way.
Projected Winner: Tossup
North Dakota (3):
This is a heartland state that was very strongly for Bush in 2004. A look at the polls there now show how much things have changed. There have been some very wide zigs and zags in the polling numbers. McCain may prevail here, but I have my doubts.
Projected Winner: Tossup
Ohio (20):
This state, just like last election, is a battleground state. There is a lot of ups and downs for both candidates in Ohio and it should be monitored carefully.
Projected Winner: Tossup
Oklahoma (6):
Strong McCain support here-unquestionable.
Projected Winner: McCain
Oregon (7):
Oregon has sided with Obama throughout the campaign and is not going to stop now. The Dems will win here.
Projected Winner: Obama
Pennsylvania (21):
This state is a Democratic stronghold. Obama will win here.
Projected Winner: Obama
Rhode Island (4):
The smallest state in the Union is not small when it comes to support for Obama.
Projected Winner: Obama
South Carolina (8):
This is Republican base. No surprises here.
Projected Winner: McCain
South Dakota (3):
True to its heartland roots, South Dakota is safe Republican territory.
Projected Winner: McCain
Tennessee (11):
Like most Southern states, Tennessee will go to the Republicans.
Projected Winner: McCain
Texas (34):
The Lone Star State is the brightest star in the Republican constellation of support. Obama won’t be able to catch up to McCain here.
Projected Winner: McCain
Utah (5):
Utah is among the strongest supporters of Republicans for President in the Union.
Projected Winner: McCain
Vermont (3):
Vermont is a very strong Democratic stronghold.
Projected Winner: Obama
Virginia (13):
This one is a shocker. Liberals from the suburbs of D.C. have made a difference here. Democratic strength has been mounting from a Summer of dead heat polling. The numbers go up and the numbers go down, but the trends show that this state will finish blue.
Projected Winner: Obama
Washington (11):
This year, like last year, Washington has been a consistently Democratic state. Obama will take this one.
Projected Winner: Obama
West Virginia (5):
McCain’s support has been steadily eroding here as of late. I’m not sure just at this point who is going to take this one.
Projected Winner: Tossup
Wisconsin (10):
Obama’s lead here is not very strong, but it has been largely consistent, and that is all that is needed to point to a victory here:
Projected Winner: Obama
Wyoming (3):
Wyoming is in the heart of Republican territory. It will go for McCain.
Projected Winner: McCain
Breakdown:
Projected Democratic:
California (55)
Colorado (9)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District of Columbia (3)
Florida (27)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Iowa (7)
Maine (4)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New Mexico (5)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Virginia (13)
Washington (11)
Wisconsin (10)
Total (313)
Projected Republican:
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Utah (5)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Wyoming (3)
Total (154)
Projected Tossup:
Georgia (15)
Missouri (11)
Nevada (5)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (20)
West Virginia (5)
Total (71)
These projections are made based on state polling data from http://www.electoral-vote.com. If you doubt any of my conclusions, have a look here and see for yourself.
Criteria:
If the polls favor a candidate over an extended period of time and the trend points to them retaining this lead, then it is projected that the said candidate will take the state on November 4. If polls have been zigzagging for a considerable amount of time or the graphs are trending towards a tie by Election Day, the state is labeled a tossup. Judgments have been made as objectively as possible.
Projected results:
Not counting the tossup states, Obama wins by a landslide at 313-154. If McCain gets all of the tossup states (which is unlikely), he gets 225 points and loses. If he gets all these and gets Florida as well, Obama still wins 286-252. If he gets all of the tossup states, Florida AND Virginia, Obama STILL wins at 273-265.
Barring a BIG shake-up or disaster, this appears to point to a clear Obama victory for this year’s Presidential elections.