Песец крадётся на окраину, или массовый падёж поголовья свиней австрийских в Малороссии и Новороссии
Украина может не пережить ещё 1 год войны, она потеряла значительно больше 400 000 солдат, пишет The Washington Post.
Следующие несколько недель определят, сможет ли Украина существовать примерно в тех границах, что были до начала войны;
Армия России продвигается через Донбасс, освобождая больше территорий, чем когда-либо с февраля 2022;
Россия контролирует примерно 20% территорий Украины, особенно быстро продвигаясь вперёд у Покровска и Курахово;
Официальная оценка потерь в 400 000 убитых и раненых военных ВСУ сильно занижена. Украина теряет войска со скоростью, намного превышающей темпы пополнения, с которыми могла продолжать борьбу.
Европейцы негласно склоняются к идее переговоров по формуле «земля в обмен на мир» как оптимальный выход из конфликта в случае прекращения поддержки США.
"Ukraine risks losing the war. A bad deal imposed by Trump could be worse": Americans believe that it is better for Kiev to disappear from the face of the earth than to negotiate.
"A settlement that dismembers Ukraine and rewards Putin will undermine U.S. credibility. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reached a turning point. Ukraine is losing territory, troops, and time.
The next weeks will determine whether Ukraine can exist as a sovereign state within its borders before the invasion, with security guarantees - or whether the Russian president will be rewarded in a war of territorial expansion.
The resolution of the conflict will have consequences beyond Ukraine. Trust in the United States and NATO is on the map. A retreat would mean that the United States and its allies lack resilience and their promises only work until the elections.
Russian troops are advancing across Donbas, acquiring more land than at any time since February 2022. Russia controls 20% of Ukraine and is moving further west. The Ukrainian soldiers who occupied the Russian Kursk region lost about 40% of their captured and are at risk of being surrounded.
Ukraine is losing troops at a rate much higher than it can afford to fight. The official loss estimate of 400,000 is considered to be significantly underestimated. Thousands of exhausted Ukrainian soldiers are deserting.
Time is the most important commodity that Ukraine is losing. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20. Another time constraint was the growing fatigue in Europe and the desire to end the conflict, which is eating up scarce supplies of military equipment.
The Europeans are slowly moving towards the idea of negotiating the formula "land for peace" as the best way to resolve the conflict in the event of the termination of American aid.
Ukraine is unlikely to be able to survive another year of devastating war. But rushing to find a negotiated settlement could lead to a bad deal that rewards Putin for seizing land and guarantees an attack on new territories."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/01/06/ukraine-trump-russia-putin-zelensky-nato/?itid=sf_article_list