Bad Predictions

[theheretic]

Six or seven years ago, most of us were pretty active on this Community following the rise in oil prices. When the price swiftly rose to $147/bbl and gasoline was $4.50/gal, Peak Oil was mainstream news and the sky was the limit. I'm just as guilty as everyone else here proclaiming rationing and panic hoarding of fuel and food and we devolved subthreads about survivalism and what to buy for the pantry and what firearms are appropriate for urban vs rural collapse states, and whether to flee for the boonies today or next week.

We were all wrong. I was wrong. The extremely unlikely happened. The price went back down. Here's some examples of predictions that failed.

• Ras Tanura hasn't been blown up.
• The Arabs are still pumping oil.
• Gasoline is expensive but not rationed. People still commute to work by car.
• Aircraft still carry passengers and more than one airline is still operating daily.
• Iran isn't actually at war with the USA.
• The Israelis aren't a glowing radioactive glass cinder on the Eastern Med.
• Egypt isn't a happy democracy.
• The USA is still occupying Iraq and Afghanistan despite the economic costs.
• Electric cars are selling or leasing to upper middle class people with money.
• Poor people drive used cars and are not taking up motorcycles or scooters for their fuel economy.
• Mass transit isn't really very effective or affordable and there aren't many streetcar lines at all. Even Portland had to give up Fareless Square.

Really, we got a lot wrong. The election in the USA won't change much. Its possible that the EU bankers will compromise just enough to get rich without destroying the European Union or driving out the debtor nations (HIPIGS) into Default. The EU may actually hang together. That would shock me, but the last 6 years have shocked me. Humans seem to prefer to be Frogs in the Pot of Slowly Boiling Water. I guess it's easier to pretend the New Normal is A-OK! than to admit things are getting worse. Stupid humans.