We've been at this for 40 years

Jun 22, 2010 02:24

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peak oil

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theheretic June 22 2010, 16:25:20 UTC
The USA has rationed gasoline twice in my lifetime. Once in 1973-74 during one of those wars with Israel, and again when Iran got all crazy in 1979. At that time they used the license plate number, the last one, to determine Odd-Even buying days, but I don't recall if they really limited how much fuel you could buy. It was also rationed during WW2 and people had to give out ration book coupons to be authorized to buy gasoline, sugar, flour, meat, etc. A modern rationing system would probably be a credit card that issues fuel every week but doesn't accumulate more than the max ration, so use it or lose it, no matter what the price is. Rations can also change, larger or smaller and they will probably shrink over time, squeezing out people or forcing them to combine rations and carpool, which is sort of the whole point. Its an economic incentive to carpool, go fuel efficient vehicle, or alt-fuel vehicle since leaving certain fuels unrationed is a good way to trick the public into conversion. Like a vehicle converted to run Natural Gas or LP Gas could be unrationed, or a much larger ration, thus getting people to buy them. Of course, that doesn't work if the fuel ends up rationed too, since you've now made your public distrust you and they'll want to Get Even. That's how revolution starts.

My personal answer to the fuel rationing problem and the delay between taxing fuel and the actual completion of valid mass transit systems is motorcycles because 250cc displacement bikes get 75 mpg, using old technology and its scalable. Not the answer in the rain or snow, but good enough the rest of the year. Its that or pure unemployment, and that's not going to fly either. If nobody works, eventually the farmers will stop feeding them.

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Throttling Etc. theheretic June 23 2010, 20:21:01 UTC
It worked. And when people today say "Oh, they won't ever ration gasoline" I say "Bullshit. They've done it three times in this country in the last 65 years. Of COURSE they'll do rationing again." People today are asinine morons who pretend that since things have been relatively stable since the Post-War period it will continue to be. Asinine pollyanna twits.

I'm reasonably sure my scenario will happen because its the least expensive, most effective, cheapest to implement while still being acceptably disruptive at the personal level. Trouble is, the current president doesn't appear to have the huevos to do it and may opt not to run again when his term ends, then his party would deliberately lose the presidency in order to put the onus of responsibility onto the other political party in hopes of causing backlash and resulting in a party win: "See, we didn't take away your SUVs and make you smell each other's armpits. It was those other guys. Vote for us!" Its amazing that partisan politics is so destructive and long term that they'd sooner destroy the entire country than take a short term loss or spin it into being the more responsible party, which is the smarter option. If the country is destroyed, the party loses. I think its possible neither party works on a Least-Best principle but instead on a "Take all you can so the other guy can't." thing like you see in business and kindergartens everywhere. I wasn't joking when I said that the world seems composed of 2 year olds managed by 4 year olds. Hah!

Anyway, rationing cards force people to conserve and they're flexible. People will have different reasons to support it. I expect lots of people will illegally store gasoline in jugs in their apartments so they have spare fuel for vacations or moving away. Its that or know a guy who has black-market fuel instead. They're also capable of keeping track of multiple rations. Say you want to offer a 10 gal/week ration of E100, a 4 gal./wk of E10 (gasoline), or 7 gal of E85. If your vehicle can run E85 (like most modern cars) this ration will still allow you most of the freedom you have now. If you can run E100, and pay for the necessary mods, you get a lot more fuel out of it, and know you aren't helping the damned arabs or Hugo Chavez, which is bragging rights same as owning a Prius, even if the Prius is a bit of a joke.

Anyone who converts to a motorcycle can do their commute on less than the ration if they're smart about it, which retains their independence and leaves them with the most free time rather than waiting at stops and stations smelling other people's armpits. This armpit thing is definitive. Public transit is all about the sweaty armpits and long waits. A motorcycle riding suit in the summer is sweaty too, but at least its your own.

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