Comments | peak_oil: Peak Production Rates Due to Multiple Simultaneous Causes

peebeebaynut in peak_oil

Peak Production Rates Due to Multiple Simultaneous Causes

May 26, 2009 06:29

It is important to realize that the reason for peak production need not be entirely geological. If the geologically-driven oil production rate peak coincides with economic collapse and a downturn in industry then the oil production rates will be reduced along with the consumption of oil. There is only so much room to store produced oil and when ( Read more... )

Comments 7

albionwood May 26 2009, 15:32:31 UTC

Exactly as predicted by Stuart Staniford on TOD several years ago - the "bumpy plateau."

peebeebaynut May 27 2009, 11:00:59 UTC

I think that the bumpy plateau is behind us now.

peebeebaynut May 27 2009, 11:13:29 UTC

There's a feedback loop here. The geological limitations of extracting oil caused run away prices as the supply strained to meet demand. Then the economy fell apart at $147/barrel oil and now the collapse of the economy is further reducing the viability of producing oil and therefor the production rate. We will not get out of this.

We are past the peak of world oil production which was July 8, 2008 at 74.82 million barrels a day for conventional crude, lease condensate and Canadian tar sands.

albionwood May 27 2009, 15:17:28 UTC

I agree that is one possible interpretation, but it's not the only one. We may never again hit that peak production (for either geologic or economic reasons, or both), but we may very well bounce back up to the 2005-07 levels for a while. The feedback loop works both ways: a resurgent economy can support a higher price, causing increased production. (Recoverable reserves are dependent on price as much as geology.)

I do agree that we aren't getting out of this; the long decline has begun. The critical question is how the decline will manifest. So far, things have played out almost exactly as Staniford predicted, so I'd look to his analysis first. If I was still paying attention anyway; too busy growing food.

sirveri May 28 2009, 08:59:20 UTC

I'm not 100% sure we're at maximal storage yet. Since for several quarters they weren't able to pump enough to meet demand and were drawing down on storage stocks. It really depends on how quickly we rebound from the economic downturn. Just because we're not producing more, does not mean we can't produce more, pumps can be shut off and turned on. Plus not all new supply source expansions were canceled. It's entirely possible we could see another oil production ramp up, and that ramp up could exceed production levels of '08 if it is done properly.

In conclusion, while we may have hit peak oil due to political reasons, it is not as easy to ascertain that as it is for geological concerns. If we see a major field production collapse, then it will be safe to say that we hit political peak oil in '08. Until then the 'true' peak is still on the table. No sense repeating the club of romes mistake.

peebeebaynut May 29 2009, 23:51:31 UTC

If we see a major field production collapse...

I wonder what happened to the second most productive oil field complex in the world anyhow? Oh yeah...

( ... )

sirveri May 30 2009, 02:17:44 UTC

It is a good article, however I don't know what sorts of technical innovations they have applied to the field. Are they using steam or salt water injection to pump the pressure up to sustain output? If not then that field could in fact make a come back. Plus that collapse occured before the world outstripped supply, and during that time period while the supply ceiling didn't expand, it also didn't contract. So perhaps I should rephrase my statement to say, if we see a major oil exporter have a major decline in production...

Doesn't hurt or help me to be cautious here, we're just random people who have no ability to affect anything talking about stuff on the internet.