Прогноз на декаду
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead: наши перспективы на следующие десять лет в свете неизбежного возобладания искусственного интеллекта над человеческим.
Прогнозы - дело неблагодарное, и, конечно же, никто не знает, что именно произойдет, но этот текст интересен как окно в мировоззрение людей, непосредственно вовлеченных в OpenAI и подобные им организации.
Довольно депрессивное чтение, на мой вкус. Например:
How all of this plays out over the 2030s is hard to predict (and a story for another time). But one thing, at least, is clear: we will be rapidly plunged into the most extreme situation humanity has ever faced.
Human-level AI systems, AGI, would be highly consequential in their own right-but in some sense, they would simply be a more efficient version of what we already know. But, very plausibly, within just a year, we would transition to much more alien systems, systems whose understanding and abilities-whose raw power-would exceed those even of humanity combined. There is a real possibility that we will lose control, as we are forced to hand off trust to AI systems during this rapid transition.
More generally, everything will just start happening incredibly fast. And the world will start going insane. Suppose we had gone through the geopolitical fever-pitches and man-made perils of the 20th century in mere years; that is the sort of situation we should expect post-superintelligence. By the end of it, superintelligent AI systems will be running our military and economy. During all of this insanity, we’d have extremely scarce time to make the right decisions. The challenges will be immense. It will take everything we’ve got to make it through in one piece.
The intelligence explosion and the immediate post-superintelligence period will be one of the most volatile, tense, dangerous, and wildest periods ever in human history.
And by the end of the decade, we’ll likely be in the midst of it.
Или:
By the time the decade is out, we’ll have billions of vastly superhuman AI agents running around. These superhuman AI agents will be capable of extremely complex and creative behavior; we will have no hope of following along. We’ll be like first graders trying to supervise people with multiple doctorates.
[...]
Simply put, without a very concerted effort, we won’t be able to guarantee that superintelligence won’t go rogue (and this is acknowledged by many leaders in the field).
И т.п.
Прогнозы - дело неблагодарное, и, конечно же, никто не знает, что именно произойдет, но этот текст интересен как окно в мировоззрение людей, непосредственно вовлеченных в OpenAI и подобные им организации.
Довольно депрессивное чтение, на мой вкус. Например:
How all of this plays out over the 2030s is hard to predict (and a story for another time). But one thing, at least, is clear: we will be rapidly plunged into the most extreme situation humanity has ever faced.
Human-level AI systems, AGI, would be highly consequential in their own right-but in some sense, they would simply be a more efficient version of what we already know. But, very plausibly, within just a year, we would transition to much more alien systems, systems whose understanding and abilities-whose raw power-would exceed those even of humanity combined. There is a real possibility that we will lose control, as we are forced to hand off trust to AI systems during this rapid transition.
More generally, everything will just start happening incredibly fast. And the world will start going insane. Suppose we had gone through the geopolitical fever-pitches and man-made perils of the 20th century in mere years; that is the sort of situation we should expect post-superintelligence. By the end of it, superintelligent AI systems will be running our military and economy. During all of this insanity, we’d have extremely scarce time to make the right decisions. The challenges will be immense. It will take everything we’ve got to make it through in one piece.
The intelligence explosion and the immediate post-superintelligence period will be one of the most volatile, tense, dangerous, and wildest periods ever in human history.
And by the end of the decade, we’ll likely be in the midst of it.
Или:
By the time the decade is out, we’ll have billions of vastly superhuman AI agents running around. These superhuman AI agents will be capable of extremely complex and creative behavior; we will have no hope of following along. We’ll be like first graders trying to supervise people with multiple doctorates.
[...]
Simply put, without a very concerted effort, we won’t be able to guarantee that superintelligence won’t go rogue (and this is acknowledged by many leaders in the field).
И т.п.