EDWARDS OUT--Democratic Cards Shuffled, Redelt
Things are moving at lightning speed now in Presidential politics. Today, on short notice, John Edwards went to New Oreleans to announce his withdrawal from the Democratic race only days after vowing to stay in to the Convention. Two days ago his campaign announced a major 10 state media buy ahead of the Tsuenami Tuesday primaries on February 5.
What happened? We’ll leave it to the memoirs of inside dopesters and the author of the next Making of a President tome to lay out the exact sequence of events. But it probably went something like this. First, despite a glimmer of hope that he might beat out Hilary Clinton for second place in his native South Carolina, he finished third trailing badly. Money, always a challenge, began to dry up. The media became obsessed with the Clinton/Obama soap opera dividing the leading candidates into icons of race and gender. Then, a flurry of major endorsements for Obama, including Edwards old running mate John Kerry and culminating with the Kennedy Coronation.
Finally, it became apparent that Hillary would use her muscle to harvest the delegates of Michigan and Florida which had been banned by the Democractic National Committee for moving their primaries up. Edwards and Obama had observed party rules and not campaigned in either state. Clinton allowed her name to remain on the Michigan ballot and ran stealth campaigns in both states without breaking the letter of the rule against personally campaigning in them. After a predictable blow-out win, she swept into Florida and announced her intention to appeal to the DNC to seat the delegates, in direct contradiction of the agreement all candidates signed. Although Clinton would have done well in Florida anyway-the older skewing voter base and heavy edge in women registered-the numbers would have been much closer if her rivals had competed. And in Michigan, with its large Black population, big labor vote, and in an economic crisis Obama, or conceivably Edwards himself with his message of economic populism, might have won outright. I am sure this last Clinonesque betrayal offended Edwards sense of simple justice.
The unknowable, at least for now, variable is the precarious state of Elizabeth Edwards’ health. The doughty Mrs. Edwards has been campaigning under what amounts to a death sentence for months after her breast cancer returned with a bleak prognosis. Together the couple vowed to fight on and the progressive populism of the campaign seemed fueled by their mutual sense of a mission to literally transform America. Did her prognosis suddenly worsen? We don’t know, but in informal interviews with the press after John’s withdrawal announcement, she replied to queries about who her husband might now support with the off hand remark that for a while, “he will be supporting me.”
Of course the question of who will get Edwards’s support is a matter of considerable interest. So far he is holding his cards close to the vest. Both other candidates-and Bill Clinton-have spoken with him over the past two days. Obama acknowledges that he directly asked Edwards. The Clinton are more publicly coy, but you can be sure that they are engaged in a full court press wielding both the carrot and the stick. Edwards told reporters that he would confer with both camps before making an announcement.
Many an innocent goat has gone to its death today as pundits sift their entrails for signs. Some note that many Edwards staffers and high level volunteers feel closer to Obama as an agent of change. Obama is less tied to the web of Washington lobbyists and interest groups that Edwards has come to despise. His refusal to take PAC money and interest in lobby reform speaks to them. Similarly, they mistrust Clinton on trade, particularly the family dedication to “Free Trade” pacts like NAFTA and CAFTA. No amount of backtracking on the campaign trail has convinced them that Hillary has changed her spots on this issue.
On the other hand those that prefer to read detailed demographic reports on voters in the early primaries have concluded that for all of his populist rhetoric, Edwards has scored best among self-described conservative Democrats. He has also, at least in the South, been the refuge for white men. His voters have split on second choices with an edge going to Hilary-perhaps due to her strong union ties and lingering affection for her husband. Some feel that Edwards might be inclined to follow the lead of his rank and file supporters rather than his professional staff and idealist volunteers.
There is also the question of promises. Hillary remains the favorite to win the nomination with her superb machine, deep pockets, Bill Clinton nostalgia-although Bill may be in the process of wearing that thin-an edge in women voters, and the possibility that, in the end, a lot of white voters will not be able to bring themselves to vote for a Black man. It that’s the case, then Hillary is in a much better position to make a wink-and-nod offer of a high position in her administration than is Obama.
What ever the outcome, the American people and the Democratic Party owe a deep debt of gratitude to John Edwards for courageously brining the nation’s class divide front and center once again. Neither Obama or Clinton will be able to ignore those issue now. To some degree or another both have to integrate Edward’s progressive vision into their own.
I just think Obama will mean it.