URGENT ALERT--US TARGETING IRAN
While the peace movement focuses on preventing the Resident’s escalation-cum-surge in Iraq and the Senate dithers over the mildest of non-binding resolutions against it, the administration is reported to be locked into an attack on Iran, perhaps as early as the end of the month.
Such a move is George W.’s only option to “change the conversation” in America from his failed Iraq policy, his assault on constitutional rights, and the dangerous revelations that seem to be spinning out from the Scooter Libby trial. The Dark Sith Lord Cheney has assured him that opening hostilities with Iran will rally the American people to him and stymie a timid Democratic Congress from “acting against the troops under fire.” As an added bonus it could even open the door to sweeping new domestic restrictions on privacy, speech, and assembly. It’s a dangerous gamble, but one which a president with messianic delusions, a maliciously ambitious power-behind-the-throne, and their devoted army on Neo-Con Orcs are willing to make.
The game has been afoot for some time. It was implied in the original conception of a never-ending “War on Terror” with multiple battlefields. Iran was identified from the beginning as one of the “Axis of Evil.” But the original Neo-Con conception envisioned an easy victory in Iraq transforming that country into a permanent forward military base from which to dominate the Middle-East and the southern tier of former Soviet republics.
While the original simple RISK strategy of being able to pick off enemies one by one by massing armies on their boarders has long been rendered obsolete, Iran never dropped off of the eventual target list.
For a while the possibility that a new, moderate government might take power in Iran and seek a diplomatic accommodation with the West, threatened these ambitions. But by relentlessly impugning Iranian national pride, by refusing to enter into any meaningful negotiations directly and by interfering with European efforts, the administration was able to assure the triumph of hardliners over pro-western moderates in the last Iranian presidential election.
And what a special gift MAHMOUND AHMADINEJAD has been. This repellent little ideologue, reputed to be one of the architects of the 1979 HOSTAGE CRISIS, is a strutting thug and vicious anti-Semite Holocaust denier who has been eager to push his confrontation with the West over the development a possible nuclear weapons to the brink. The Vice President could not have wished for a better partner in his dance of death.
Tensions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been mounting for two years as the US has adroitly maneuvered the Europeans and the United Nations into supporting its demands for total Iranian surrender on the issue. Each threat of diplomatic condemnation or economic sanctions by the West has brought back more belligerence from Ahmadinejad. Not only has he announce repeatedly that Iran has made this or that step toward manufacture of possible arms grade plutonium, he has publicly tested a range of sophisticated rockets and missiles-thanks to North Korean technology-capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.
Despite the fact that international arms experts believe that Ahmadinejad’s bark is ten times worse than his bite-that the Iranians are years away from assembling a usable nuclear arsenal-the American administration has been able to relentlessly hype the dangers of “weapons of mass destruction” in an eerie parallel to the charges leading to the Iraq debacle. And the Iranian President’s bluster has only lent a credibility to the charges that Bush would have otherwise already forfeited.
Meanwhile the Iraq disaster has opened the door to Iranian ambitions in that country. It had long supported the Shiite majority against its old Suni/Baathist enemy. It has been a long term dream of the ruling Iranian clerics to either draw Iraq’s eastern Shiite provinces into a new Greater Iran or if the local Shiite Arabs demurred from Persian domination, at least a compliant satellite state. The turmoil in Iraq unleashed by the American invasion ultimately led to the acsension of Iranian Shii’a allies to dominance of an American sponsored “democratic government” and the ensuing undeclared civil war.
Long complaining about Iranian meddling in Iraq, Bush has recently upped the rhetoric on that front as well. American troops invaded an Iranian Consulate in the Kurdish north and arrested 5 diplomats. Subsequently a policy of “arresting or killing” any Iranian agents found in Iraq “abetting the terrorists” was announced. Some even suspect that a recent highly publicized ambush which killed five Americans GIs (including one outspoken war critic), might have been a covert operation meant to be blamed on Iran.
Those are the background conditions on which Bush and company plan to justify war. The actual military preparations have been on going for some time and Pentagon sources, alarmed at the rush to disastrous war, have been leaking warnings that the plans are nearly complete and that execution of them can be expected at any time.
It was long assumed that the US would let the Israelis, who greatly fear Iranian nuclear ambitions, conduct a preemptory attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. But those facilities are super-hardened, buried under hundreds of feet of reinforced concrete and widely disbursed over the mountainous nation. Military experts believe that Israel tested some of America’s newest and most powerful “bunker busting” bombs and technology against hardened Hezbollah sites in their summer war in southern Lebanon. But Hezbollah troops survived that bombardment and emerged to engage Israeli troops in bloody combat (see the archives from the August 30th entry LUNDY'S LANE AND LEBANNON--"BY GOD REGULARS!" ) From that point on it was apparent that a successful Israeli strike in Iran would require nuclear weapons, American super-jumbo DAISY CUTTER (and their even larger, newer kin) bunker busters not yet transferred to Israel, or direct American participation in the attack.
Meanwhile the U.S. military has been going beyond the planning phase to pre-positioning of forces. Naval power in the Persian Gulf has been boosted. A second full aircraft carrier battle group is nearing the gulf as we speak. Heavy bombers-both trusty old B-52s and newer B-1Bs and B-2s-based in the US and the Indian Ocean Island of DIEGO GARCIA have been placed on alert and have run test long distance missions. The Defense Minister of a former Eastern block nation last week let it slip that air bases in his country have been cleared for use in action against Iran-important because bases in Germany, Turkey and other NATO states are almost surely will be unavailable for an offensive war on Iran.
The plan now seems to be to allow Israel to strike first, with American support. This counts on the Iranians to strike back against American forces in the area. They are known to have dug in numerous anti-ship missiles capable of striking and sinking American ships in the Gulf. These are the decedents of the EXOCET class of missiles which sank a British cruiser during the FAULKANDS WAR. Although that attack was launched from an Argentine jet, the Iranian missiles are hidden in caves and bunkers along the length of the Persian Gulf and are quite capable of hitting ships within it. It is not inconceivable that US ships could purposefully be placed as inviting targets with the hope that incoming missiles could be shot down. If one was hit and destroyed, however, it would only magnify the excuse to fire back and become a REMEMBER THE MAINE rallying cry for the war at home. Those who think this is a far fetched scenario have forgotten the documented case of the attack of the USS MADOXX and the resultant GULF OF TONKIN RESOLUTION.
Other scenarios involve some Iranian provocation in Iraq (or an act that can be plausibly blamed on them), or, better yet some act of domestic terrorism that can be tied (however tenuously) to the Ayatollahs.
The administration seems to be under the delusion that war against Iran can be fought mainly with air and naval forces with perhaps peripheral engagement by troops in Iraq and Afganistan confronting Shii’a uprisings there in support of Iran.
Less deluded observes don’t believe it for a moment. War against Iran would almost surely become regional, if not global. Iran probably has the power, as it has long claimed, to close the Persian Gulf to shipping and damage petroleum instillations in Saudi Arabia the Gulf States causing an instant international energy crisis and a crippling attack on Western economies.
Syria, in a defensive alliance with Iran would surely be drawn in. Although that might be to the liking of the Neo-Cons who always aimed to get to Syria sooner or later, the last thing the US military wants or needs is yet another war front. In addition Hezbollah forces in Lebanon would rise against the shaky government there and launch attacks on Israel. Shiite minorities throughout the Gulf would be inflamed against “moderate” Suni states.
If Iraqi based Kurds take advantage of the opportunity to launch a “war of liberation” for the Iranian ruled cousins-and they are already training to do so-the crisis could spread even to NATO ally Turkey, which has long battled Kurdish separatists and has vowed never to allow the establishment of a Kurdish state. That could drive moderate (and militarily powerful) Turkey into the arms of Jihadist Islam.
In addition, other international powers could be drawn in. China depends on Iran for a significant portion of its oil supplies. North Korea, already a de-facto ally providing technical support to Iranian rocket forces, and feeling that it is inevitably the next target of American aggression, could launch its long feared attack on the South. Even resurgent Russia might be tempted to enter the fray directly or indirectly if it seems possible to eliminate the United States as super power.
However it unfolds, observers inside and outside the military are becoming convinced that the Resident and company are committed to action soon.
Only the most dramatic action may now be able to avert disaster. The Peace Movement needs to re-focus its attention to stopping the next war. Congress must act now to explicitly deny the Resident the authority to launch operations against Iran, including a refusal to authorize any funds for the adventure. Bush and company must not be allowed to argue that Congress has ceded its war making authority to the Administration in this instance under the broad authorization of a “War on Terror.” PEACE ACTION, among other groups has launched a petition to Congress. UNITED FOR JUSTICE AND PEACE has compiled articles and links with which an activist can arm herself.
But the time for petitions grows short. The anti-war movement and all of the allies it can muster must take to the streets NOW.
The clock is ticking. Tomorrow may be too late.