Madigan’s Demur Sets Up Illinois Scramble
Folks here in Illinois are still shaking their heads over the announcement by popular Attorney General Lisa Madigan that she will not be running for Governor or Senate. She was the dam behind which a river of ambitious Democrats were contained. They all hoped that she would open the floodgates to advancement by declaring for higher office. Boy, were they disappointed.
Most observers were convinced until recently that Madigan would follow the fondest dreams of her father, Speaker of the House and Illinois Democratic Party Chair Michael Madigan and run for governor. Meanwhile she was the open choice of the White House and Rahm Emanuel to make the run for Barack Obama’s old Senate seat against terminally damaged Blagojevich appointee Roland Burris.
Instead the diminutive and youthful Madigan announced that she would “stay in the job I love” and run for a third term. The mother of two small children ages 1 and 4, her claim of family commitments have plausibility. And she is certainly young enough to have chances for advancement in the future. Likely those chances looked better to her than the murky waters she faced in the wake of scandal and budget melt down that have tainted the prospects of Illinois Democrats despite an ever widening advantage in voter registration, a wildly popular home town hero as President, and the perennial shoot-themselves-in-the-foot mopery of state Republicans.
Whether it was secret polling or shrewd political instincts, Madigan opted for safety. Here is a score card of some of the players scrambling for position in the wake of Madigan’s decision.
For Senate:
Roland Burris was on everybody’s short list as an immediate lame duck-make that dead duck-unable to wash off the stench of his appointment. Indeed a continual water-torture drip of new revelations indicate that the Freshman Senator was even less forthcoming about his solicitation of the former disgraced governor and his top aids than previously disclosed. But Burris is a proud-some say arrogant-man. Despite hints that he would be satisfied with a “career toper” appointment, he had indicated that he may run for re-election. But today reports are circulating that he will announce Friday that he is out of the race but will finish his term. He doesn’t have any money and likely can’t raise much. But if a Democratic Primary field had gotten crowed and he could paint attempts to oust him as racial, he might have squeaked by on the basis of big turn outs by African Americans. He would then have been creamed by almost any warm body the Republicans could put up.
State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulis is now the consensus front runner. He has a lot going for him, including proven vote getting skills. Even younger than Madigan, Giannoulis has strong personal and political ties to Obama and might be expecting covert help from the White House now that Madigan is out of the picture. But President and his operatives might conclude that the Illinois race is too toxic to become involved in, particularly if race becomes an issue. Giannoulis is a charismatic candidate and great campaigner. He can raise serious money, particularly from the large-and generous-Greek community. He has been courting progressives with things like his support for workers at Hartmarx and blogging on the Daily Kos. On the negative side there have been a few bumps that could be made into mountains during his term as Treasurer and there have been questions of how deep his personal involvement in his father’s suspect banking operations might be.
Christopher (Chris) Kennedy, the eighth of Bobby Kennedy’s many children has let it be known that he is interested in the race. Outside of his name and family connections, he is largely unknown in the state despite managing his family’s Merchandise Mart in Chicago for a number of years. He has a modest reputation as a promoter of “green business” practices. Despite presumed participation in the city’s high level social life, it is hard even to find a news photo of the presumptive candidate or statements on public issues. Still, he can raise a ton of money quickly and can presumably bring his illustrious family to his aid. He may hope that the President’s deep political debt to the Kennedy clan for their support at a critical juncture in his race for the nomination might effectively check Giannoulis’s personal connections. Some believe that he may enjoy the quiet support of Mayor Richard M. Daily, although no public commitment has been made. On the downside, word of his likely candidacy has stirred up zero enthusiasm among rank-and-file party members and activists and cousin Caroline’s fate in New York is evidence that plenty of folks are unwilling to automatically swallow a cipher wrapped in the Kennedy mantle.
Many Black politicians fervently wished for an alternative to Burris. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. thought he could be the one. But he has been caught up in the Blagojevich soap opera and his wife, Chicago Alderman Sandi Jackson, has also been ensnared in that mess and has been criticized for being paid large sums under her maiden name for services to her husband’s congressional campaign. Jackson can’t even count on the unified support of Chicago black politicians. He has a long running feud with some powerful aldermen and ward committeemen. Like Giannoulis and Madigan, he has a long personal and political relationship with the President, but may have jeopardized that with grousing about Obama not getting behind him in his feverish drive to convince Blagojevich to appoint him to the Senate. No other major Black political figure had been willing to enter the race until Burris’ withdrawal. Now to challenge Burris a scramble to put forth a serious Black candidate will begin. Congressman Danny Davis might think of a run, as could any number of Chicago Aldermen and state legislators. Obama might even prevail on his aid Valerie Jarrett, who withdrew from consideration by Blagojevich when word got out that Obama was pushing her candidacy, to enter the race.
On the Republican side Rep. Mark Kirk, who announced his candidacy as Madigan was renouncing hers is the Great White Hope of the Republican establishment. He has an undeserved reputation as a moderate and “maverick” based almost exclusively on his support of environmental causes. He has won twice in his increasingly Democratic North Shore Congressional seat. He is photogenic and well spoken, the darling of the local media. National Republicans are prepared to pump megabucks into his campaign in order to embarrass the President and steal what should be a safe Democratic seat from a deep blue state. And he is the kind of non-ideological “moderate” Republican that Illinois voters have supported in the past. He would be the toughest possible Republican to beat in a General Election. The trouble is, he may never get a chance to make the race. He is despised by the conservative base for lack of purity and fire. Many would rather loose the race than elevate a “Republocrat.” Several pipsqueak lock-and-load right-wingers are eyeing the primary, along with a few “respectable” but obscure state legislators. If enough of them stay in the race the famous GOP circular firing squad will take care of them and let Kirk seize the nomination. But if the kids can stop squabbling amongst themselves and unite around a single candidate-particularly one rich enough to self finance his campaign, Kirk might never make it to the big dance.
For Governor:
Governor Patrick Quinn would be the happiest man in Illinois today if he wasn’t wrestling with a confrontation with the Democratic Legislature over the budget crisis, which threatens to shut down state government and “gut the entire social services safety net” in the middle of a Depression. Certainly his path to winning re-nomination is smoother even if his chances in November are dicey. Quinn, a career “reformer”, earnest as a Boy Scout, honest as ol’ Abe himself, was seen as a breath of fresh air following the Blago nightmare. But the honeymoon was short lived. With the oratorical skills of a middle school social studies teacher and the charisma of a boiled potato, the new Governor is clearly out of his depth. His proposed reforms of tainted campaign fiancé laws-among the loosest in the nation-have largely gone no where in the General Assembly and have alienated go-along-get-along politicians of both parties. His proposed 50% increase in the state income tax was greeted unabashed glee by Republicans and abject terror by Democrats. His announced slashing of social services funding has been universally denounced as “hold people hostage” and has already decimated programs and agencies around the state. Now he has announced massive State Government lay-offs in a 1$ billion slash to state operating funds that will result in more than 2,500 layoffs. Neither of these actions have moved the deadlocked legislature. He has his held up a long awaited capital infrastructure plan that is chock-full of road and other projects backed up for years and which would be a powerful “jobs and stimulus” tonic to the state economy saying that he will not allow bonded road building to go forward without a budget. Although Quinn is not without his supporters and admirers, they can’t break the logjam in the legislature. They also can’t raise much money. And Quinn’s own attempts to raise a war chest have been mocked for failing to uphold the lofty promises of reform that have been is career signature. He is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. Now he has a shot at winning a contested primary, but Republicans lie in the weeds eager to tie him to Blagojevich and to Democratic majorities in both houses that can’t seem to do their jobs.
Without Madigan in the game, there is no clear alternative to Quinn. Perhaps State Comptroller Dan Hynes could step up. He had been planning to run for Madigan’s job. But she is staying put and not being suicidal he can’t challenge her. Hynes has been increasingly critical of both the Governor and the General Assembly. He has a power base in the Cook County organization. He could presumably shift gears and emerge as a credible alternative. Others are now undoubtedly testing the waters, but the rumor mill has not produced any names likely to inspire great enthusiasm.
Fortunately for Democrats the Republican race is crowed by midgets and whats-his-names. Among the announced or expected luminaries to throw their hats in the ring are DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom, hardly a household word, and a slew of state house denizens including Sen. Matt Murphy of Palatine, Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington, and Sen. Kirk Dillard of Hinsdale, the best known among them. Others in the race are the usual GOP gadfly/nut job types, “pundit” Dan Proft and Adam Andrzejewski, whose ambition seems to be challenging Blagojevich for the most unpronounceable name in politics. All of these will have to dive to the far right to try to win the Republican nomination. And they will pound each other with relentless negative advertising. The emerging candidate will be so bloodied and discredited that even Pat Quinn might survive.
Down Ticket:
A bunch of folks looked to move up the ladder by claiming Lisa Madigan’s job. We have already noted Hynes, but at least he has the reasonable option of running for governor. State Rep. Julie Hamos has been running around the state for nearly a year trying to line up support for a statewide race, presumably Attorney General. She now needs to weigh her options. Staying in the Senate appears to be out as she has already announced that she would not seek re-election. She could seek Giannoulis’ job-or Hynes’ if he opts to run for governor. Some say that even the chief executive job or the Senate seat are possibilities, but I don’t think she has the name recognition or the fund raising oomph for either of those.
McHenry County’s own State Representative Jack Franks has also been laying the groundwork for a run at Attorney General. Franks got plenty of state wide and even national attention as the most relentless of Blagojevich’s many critics. He has carved out a safe seat in traditionally Republican territory and has held it election after election by virtue of an outstanding ground operation and superb constituent service, He tested the waters for a possible run against Blago four years ago but demurred to the Governor’s overwhelming fundraising prowess. He, like Hamos, could try for one of the open constitutional officer seats. His family has banking interests, so perhaps Treasurer or Comptroller is not out of the question. Perhaps he could convince his self-proclaimed buddy, popular Secretary of State Jesse White that it is time to retire. The Secretary of State job has been a historic launching pad for the Governorship. But it is unlikely that Franks could realistically try for Governor or Senate. As the most conservative Democrat in the General Assembly, Franks is not apt to generate much enthusiasm in Chicago or even the closer-in suburbs. He decision to bail out of his commitment to Obama and endorse Hillary Clinton is a political mistake he probably already regrets. David Axelrod and Emanuel have long memories even if the President is more forgiving. They are in a position to crush his aspirations if they get too big. The other problem is that Franks is something of a technophobe. He has never even maintained a campaign web site or used TV. He has always been about a shoe leather ground game. That won’t be enough in a state wide race. If stymied, Franks, unlike Hamos, can retreat to an absolutely safe seat.
Who is the biggest loser in all of this? Hands down it is the hapless Joe Birkett. The Dupage County State’s Attorney announced a second bid for Attorney General just before Madigan’s announcement believing he would be going for an open seat. Madigan crushed Birkett in her first run and he was on the ticket for Lt. Governor in 2006. Madigan has grown in both stature and popularity as is absolutely unbeatable as an incumbent. Birkett does not even have the option of re-evaluating and maybe running for Governor because he can’t even count on the united support of the powerful Dupage County COP machine with two other local county politcos already in the race.
“May you live in interesting times,” is an ancient Chinese curse. And these indeed are interesting times for Illinois Democrats.