AT LAST-ELECTION DAY
Election Day in my Yard
It is a picture perfect Election Day in McHenry County. The sun is shining, the mid-afternoon temperatures in the low 70’s, autumn foliage in full glory. The culmination of months-even years-of effort will be known soon. I am as confident as I am exhausted.
Long time readers of this blog will remember that I was an early supporter of Senator Barack Obama, endorsing his candidacy even before the memorable official announcement of candidacy that cold day in Springfield. I wrote extensively of his primary battles. But while Obama has not exactly disappeared from the blog in recent months, readers have noted an emphasis on local races. This has probably killed my slender chances to ascend to the heights of blog-o-sphere punditry. Most folks who do not live here could not care less about our obscure races.
Election Day is a little different for a county Democratic official. Even where our favorite son is expected carry the state by as much as 20 points. This is traditionally the most reliably Republican county in Illinois. Despite my fervent support of Obama, my time and effort has mostly been taken up with the nuts and bolts of translating enthusiasm for the top of the ticket on down the ballot to the un-sexy races for legislative seats, county offices, and county board members. And that has been reflected on this blog.
So months have gone by filled with stuffing literature bags, canvassing, marching in parades, staffing a booth at the County Fair, strategizing with candidates, drafting press releases, posting signs, answering phones and e-mail, attending fund raisers, schmoozing with voters encountered in the supermarket and on the streets, walking my precinct. And most of that effort has been in support of the down ticket candidates, as reflected in my blog entries.
I have not been able to travel to Iowa, Wisconsin, or Indiana with the Obamaniacs, knocking on doors and making a difference in battleground states. Most weekends I have been here concentrating on this or that County Board race. Neither have my evenings been free to join in the many phone banking for Obama opportunities. I’ve missed the thrills of the big rallies, except the vicarious buzz I can get from my TV and computer screens. Sometimes I feel like I’ve missed the romantic struggle, the ecstatic thrill of this election.
But down here in the trenches, we tell ourselves that we are doing our part to make this truly a transformational election. Our McHenry County Democratic Party goal has been to “Turn McHenry County Blue.” We want to be part of a permanent re-alignment of American politics. We want to take this bastion of Republicanism where the old rural and small town culture meets the advancing exurban sprawl of Chicago. We want to be part of a national trend turning these reliably conservative ring suburbs in a progressive direction. To do that we have to elect the state representatives; the State’s Attorney, Auditor, and Coroner; the County Board members.
How will we do? Nobody polls these races. The most experienced politicians can only stick their wetted fingers in the air to guess the direction of the wind. My guess is that we carry McHenry County for Obama, Senator Durbin, and Congresswoman Melissa Bean. Bob Abboud will put an unexpected scare in Congressman Don Manzullo.
State Representative Jack Franks, long the camel nose under the tent of Republican dominance, will of course waltz away in his uncontested race. Bob Kaempfe will significantly cut the margin of victory of Representative Mike Tryon, who now doubles as GOP County Chair. Bill Gentes once held the edge in his race for shared Lake/McHenry/Cook county district open State Senate seat. But he needlessly lied about his employment status to newspaper editorial boards, hurting him in the stretch. He can still pull it off with a strong ground game, but it will be close. As will Rich Garling’s race against an incumbent in a cross boarder State House race with the edge to Mark Beaubien.
It will be tough to oust incumbents in the county wide races. After being frightened to death by being outvoted in the spring Primary and after falling behind Democratic Party fundraising for the last two years, the candidates infused their campaigns with rivers of cash, much of which they have spent like drunken sailors. They can flood mailboxes, air radio and even cable TV advertising, produce signs by the hundreds, splurge on newspaper advertising, and even use robo calls. But they haven’t matched determined ground game and door-to-door campaigning of the Democrats. Much of the money has probably been wasted. They are also beset by deep divisions between ascendant red meat, ditto head conservatives and the old Country Club guard. Wounds from their divisive State’s Attorney primary have not healed. Moderate Republicans are abandoning the top of the tickets like rats from a sinking ship. Many other usually reliable GOP voters are demoralized and may not turn out in their usual numbers. So State’s Attorney candidate Thomas Cynor, Auditor candidate, Kerry Julian, and Coroner contestant David Bachmann are to some degree relying on a weakened Republican turnout and genuine Obama coattails. In addition Bachmann stands to receive support of some of incumbent State’s Attorney Louis Bianchi’s supporters bitter at Coroner Marlene Lantz’s out spoken support of his primary opponent. On the other hand Cynor and Julian could get a boost from the supporters of the disappointed loser in that race.
County board races are tough because it is hard to get voters attention. But many of our candidates have run exceptionally strong races and there is dissatisfaction with entrenched Republican dominance of the Board. We could win 2 to 5 County Board seats depending on Democratic down draft. Among the candidates with the best shots are Paula Yensen in District 6, Anita Harmon in District 2, and Bob Ludwig in District 5. James McTague in District 1 and Kathy Bergan Schmidt in District 3 are darker horses, but within striking distance with a big enough Democratic turnout.
Well, it’s about time to take off for a round of poll watching. I guess I’ll find out soon enough how these local obsessions turn out. And, oh yes, how big Obama’s nationwide victory is.
I’ll see some of you tonight at Govner’s Pub in Lake in the Hills for the victory party.