for IHS 2011 Journalism Application
Pre-election fall in oil-prices
So, we are looking at electoral decline in oil prices. And this is about the U.S. presidential election in November 2012.
$ 4 per gallon of gasoline is too high a price for Obama to stay popular.
The price of petrol on the top of the election campaign should be reduced.
It should be $ 2 a gallon or less. But hardly more.
One stepped or two stepped reductions?
The price reduction is the pre-election project, so the question arises: how many steps it will take. Will it be in one step (and that will end in 2011) or two steps. If it’s the second way it will happen right before the elections and this will give Obama full credits (and let him score maximum points).
The 2 stepped reductions will be planned in such a way that in 2011 the oil price will drop to a range of 60-75 dollars and a further drop of about 40-50% in 2012.
However, if it is one stepped the drop in prices will be seen in 2011, it will freeze in the range of 35-65 dollars (most likely 45-55) and will stay so low until at least November 2012.
If all goes in one step, then we should see the lowest of oil prices in the first half of November 2012.
Duration
The duration of this decline in oil prices is going to be long termed, starting now till the last months of 2012, unlike that of 2008-2009 which lasted only for 6months.
Dodd-Frank or 10 months at rally
From July 14 Dodd-Frank’s law come into force and it actually prohibits speculation with papers for oil. And the U.S. has already started criminal investigations against speculators and traders (for the year 2008).
July 14 - a symbolic date for the oil market. In this day in 2008 oil prices began falling.
And a month after the Dodd-Frank (23/07/10) started the second strongest in 25 years in the oil market rally, which ended a month before the law came into force.
It is worth noting an important fact - the law of the Dodd-Frank is a factor limiting growth oil prices for a long!
Oil corporations
The stated price of 55-65 dollars per barrel is more than satisfactory for the oil companies, as that was their target for 2010/2011 rally. It will result in no significant negative effects on the oil companies even as the prices fall by half. Everybody is happy, people vote for Obama who defended high oil prices and the oil companies have not suffered as they did in the summer of 2010.
It is reducing the price of oil without an actual ‘decline’.
OPEC or “Who's boss?”
This year Iran is in the seat of OPEC presidency. Almost all OPEC countries produce oil at maximum capacity and only Saudi Arabia produces at only to 75% capacity. At a Glance: Saudi Arabia's spare capacity - 3.2 million barrels, while OPEC’s spare capacity is 1 million barrels.
Saudi Arabia proposed at the June session of the OPEC meeting to increase production but Iran has assembled a coalition of other members of the OPEC, those who have been producing all that can be produced and S.A.’s decision to increase production had a crash.
In fact, Iran became the second center of power in OPEC. At the same time, Saudi Arabia lost its reputation for the U.S., because it openly promised to increase production which equals to reduced price.
A loss of reputation to Arabia - it is a serious factor, because in fact it lost of the king of Saudi Arabia. And that turned out that the SA is no longer able to guarantee production levels and the price. And Iran is taking control which is unacceptable.
translated to English
for the Ryazan State University Faculty of Economics
Ryazan, Ryazan State
15.06.2011
===========================================================================================================
Why libertarianism is the Russian economic miracle
There are various ways to explain the reasons for the backwardness of our country from the West, but in any way it’s hard to deny the fact that the existence of socialism in Russia in the XX century, which was a century of the scientific boom, increased this gap, even the Communists themselves confirm this.
During the first 5 years of Stalin’s reign, the economy witnessed a boom that could be compared to that of the pre-revolutionary economic era, despite the fact that analysts of the world have predicted that this will be seen only after a minimum of 30 years.
"We pretend we work, they pretend they pay us" - of course, that kind of system can’t be effective. Socialism as a system, that deprives a person of an incentive to work by him or herself or at least not as effective.
Increase in labor productivity in manufacturing through innovation did not bring significant dividends to "red directors", but the initiative of workers has been fully punished and hardly possible.
There is no socialist country that is or wasn’t a part of the Third World countries.
If to take a look as the modern Russia, we can see that everything that is under the Government control is rotten while private businesses are fairing better. As an example we can compare commercial dental and other non-profit medicine in Russia. Commercial is totally leading.
If to estimate countries with the market or mixed economy systems, it becomes clear that most things are well in those countries, which for the longest time provide the market mechanisms to its selves. Its difficult to find an exception to this rule, for example, in the Baltic States liberal Estonia is the most advanced , while its Georgia in the Caucasus , in Indo-China it is Singapore, and in North America it is the U.S.
Market economy is the best living system in economics. Not so long ago by the standards of World's history the welfare state was considered an unattainable utopia, but now any other way of living is unacceptable. The welfare state may have arisen from the desire of the people who believe that such a thing could exist.
As far as the market is free, it is stronger. For 72 years of Socialism, Russia occupied a very bad position in world’s capitalistic community. Now we are trying to enter the economic mainstream, which now is the economy of the developed capitalist countries. We did not consider one thing: these countries have already developed. We won’t catch them if we go with the same speed, with the way they are. Liberalization of the economy - that is the guarantor of this needed speed. It’s a guarantor because the market is as efficient as freer as it is, we can see this in other capitalist countries. The most radical capitalist ideology, is preserving the existence of the state libertarianism.
As described above, the maximum capitalism has the most powerful economy and the maximum well-being of citizens as its consequence.
The famous Latin proverb states that, while we stand on a spot and others move on, we in turn are moving backwards. Unfortunately, we have stood for too long, while others have moved on - It's time to go. Go faster.
translated to English
for the Generation P newspaper
Ryazan, Ryazan State, Russia
27.01.2011
============================================================================================================
Russian People
The Russian people have always been famous for their courage and selflessness. And this selfleness and the Russian spirit often brought Russians into a deep impasse. During the Soviet times, the people were forced to build for the country, for the people and for the parties. Russian people sincerely believed that they doing good business, and they willingly worked, and worked even in vain, because it was in the spirit. However, the basic principle of market economy is to operate as efficiently as possible and get maximum benefit for themselves. That's what Russians always lacked.
Russian doctors are ready to take the bullets out of the eyes for 300 rubles per day, but because there is no one who could do it instead them. And just because miners, factory workers and other underprivileged sections of the population, without thinking that, once they boycott a government policy against them, they will force the government to treat them differently, better. This is the main principle of non-violent revolution, the refusal of execution.
Thus, the light principle of self-sacrifice and heroism is working against Russians. According to statistics, about 30 percent of Russians are deeply convinced that it is better to live here and take bribes than to go into more advanced ways in terms of civil liberties in the country.
One of the biggest flaws of the Russian people is disbelief. Despite the willingness to punch the brickwork by head in the name of holy purpose, our people do not believe in the possibility of changing the situation, especially if the government indirectly confirms this. Today, at an opposition rally in the city of half a million citizens, only a few dozen people showed up, but when the next pawn of United Russia hold their shares in support of the government, promising everyone who came a hundred rubles, there will be sea of people. Nothing changes. Then those people with at the government rally will buy beer with these few hundred rubles and will complain about their low salary, bad roads in the country and how expensive housing and accommodation has become, and they will blame the government. But this is not the fault of the Government. It's the fault of the people who allow the government to do with them whatever it likes.
Imagine a village where every month everybody gives money to the general budget. The village has a headman, who makes an oath to serve the village and honestly manage the budget. Immediately after the election, people forget about him, because people believed that he would act fairly. From the budget he gives 5% on the content of a physician, 5% - for the undertaker, 5% - at the precinct, and the rest he keeps for himself, just because he is headman.
Do not think that in Europe politicians are walking the streets and handing out candies. Almost all Norwegian adults are members of 2-4 community organizations, thus, putting them in full control of its powers.
In Italy, each of the central square of every city is constantly packed with protesters. These people are fighting for their rights. That is what is called civil society
Based on this, only those willing to fight for their liberty deserves a better life.
Therefore, today's Russians do not deserve to live better.
translated to English
for the Ryazan State University Faculty of the Social Science
29.04.2011
So, we are looking at electoral decline in oil prices. And this is about the U.S. presidential election in November 2012.
$ 4 per gallon of gasoline is too high a price for Obama to stay popular.
The price of petrol on the top of the election campaign should be reduced.
It should be $ 2 a gallon or less. But hardly more.
One stepped or two stepped reductions?
The price reduction is the pre-election project, so the question arises: how many steps it will take. Will it be in one step (and that will end in 2011) or two steps. If it’s the second way it will happen right before the elections and this will give Obama full credits (and let him score maximum points).
The 2 stepped reductions will be planned in such a way that in 2011 the oil price will drop to a range of 60-75 dollars and a further drop of about 40-50% in 2012.
However, if it is one stepped the drop in prices will be seen in 2011, it will freeze in the range of 35-65 dollars (most likely 45-55) and will stay so low until at least November 2012.
If all goes in one step, then we should see the lowest of oil prices in the first half of November 2012.
Duration
The duration of this decline in oil prices is going to be long termed, starting now till the last months of 2012, unlike that of 2008-2009 which lasted only for 6months.
Dodd-Frank or 10 months at rally
From July 14 Dodd-Frank’s law come into force and it actually prohibits speculation with papers for oil. And the U.S. has already started criminal investigations against speculators and traders (for the year 2008).
July 14 - a symbolic date for the oil market. In this day in 2008 oil prices began falling.
And a month after the Dodd-Frank (23/07/10) started the second strongest in 25 years in the oil market rally, which ended a month before the law came into force.
It is worth noting an important fact - the law of the Dodd-Frank is a factor limiting growth oil prices for a long!
Oil corporations
The stated price of 55-65 dollars per barrel is more than satisfactory for the oil companies, as that was their target for 2010/2011 rally. It will result in no significant negative effects on the oil companies even as the prices fall by half. Everybody is happy, people vote for Obama who defended high oil prices and the oil companies have not suffered as they did in the summer of 2010.
It is reducing the price of oil without an actual ‘decline’.
OPEC or “Who's boss?”
This year Iran is in the seat of OPEC presidency. Almost all OPEC countries produce oil at maximum capacity and only Saudi Arabia produces at only to 75% capacity. At a Glance: Saudi Arabia's spare capacity - 3.2 million barrels, while OPEC’s spare capacity is 1 million barrels.
Saudi Arabia proposed at the June session of the OPEC meeting to increase production but Iran has assembled a coalition of other members of the OPEC, those who have been producing all that can be produced and S.A.’s decision to increase production had a crash.
In fact, Iran became the second center of power in OPEC. At the same time, Saudi Arabia lost its reputation for the U.S., because it openly promised to increase production which equals to reduced price.
A loss of reputation to Arabia - it is a serious factor, because in fact it lost of the king of Saudi Arabia. And that turned out that the SA is no longer able to guarantee production levels and the price. And Iran is taking control which is unacceptable.
translated to English
for the Ryazan State University Faculty of Economics
Ryazan, Ryazan State
15.06.2011
===========================================================================================================
Why libertarianism is the Russian economic miracle
There are various ways to explain the reasons for the backwardness of our country from the West, but in any way it’s hard to deny the fact that the existence of socialism in Russia in the XX century, which was a century of the scientific boom, increased this gap, even the Communists themselves confirm this.
During the first 5 years of Stalin’s reign, the economy witnessed a boom that could be compared to that of the pre-revolutionary economic era, despite the fact that analysts of the world have predicted that this will be seen only after a minimum of 30 years.
"We pretend we work, they pretend they pay us" - of course, that kind of system can’t be effective. Socialism as a system, that deprives a person of an incentive to work by him or herself or at least not as effective.
Increase in labor productivity in manufacturing through innovation did not bring significant dividends to "red directors", but the initiative of workers has been fully punished and hardly possible.
There is no socialist country that is or wasn’t a part of the Third World countries.
If to take a look as the modern Russia, we can see that everything that is under the Government control is rotten while private businesses are fairing better. As an example we can compare commercial dental and other non-profit medicine in Russia. Commercial is totally leading.
If to estimate countries with the market or mixed economy systems, it becomes clear that most things are well in those countries, which for the longest time provide the market mechanisms to its selves. Its difficult to find an exception to this rule, for example, in the Baltic States liberal Estonia is the most advanced , while its Georgia in the Caucasus , in Indo-China it is Singapore, and in North America it is the U.S.
Market economy is the best living system in economics. Not so long ago by the standards of World's history the welfare state was considered an unattainable utopia, but now any other way of living is unacceptable. The welfare state may have arisen from the desire of the people who believe that such a thing could exist.
As far as the market is free, it is stronger. For 72 years of Socialism, Russia occupied a very bad position in world’s capitalistic community. Now we are trying to enter the economic mainstream, which now is the economy of the developed capitalist countries. We did not consider one thing: these countries have already developed. We won’t catch them if we go with the same speed, with the way they are. Liberalization of the economy - that is the guarantor of this needed speed. It’s a guarantor because the market is as efficient as freer as it is, we can see this in other capitalist countries. The most radical capitalist ideology, is preserving the existence of the state libertarianism.
As described above, the maximum capitalism has the most powerful economy and the maximum well-being of citizens as its consequence.
The famous Latin proverb states that, while we stand on a spot and others move on, we in turn are moving backwards. Unfortunately, we have stood for too long, while others have moved on - It's time to go. Go faster.
translated to English
for the Generation P newspaper
Ryazan, Ryazan State, Russia
27.01.2011
============================================================================================================
Russian People
The Russian people have always been famous for their courage and selflessness. And this selfleness and the Russian spirit often brought Russians into a deep impasse. During the Soviet times, the people were forced to build for the country, for the people and for the parties. Russian people sincerely believed that they doing good business, and they willingly worked, and worked even in vain, because it was in the spirit. However, the basic principle of market economy is to operate as efficiently as possible and get maximum benefit for themselves. That's what Russians always lacked.
Russian doctors are ready to take the bullets out of the eyes for 300 rubles per day, but because there is no one who could do it instead them. And just because miners, factory workers and other underprivileged sections of the population, without thinking that, once they boycott a government policy against them, they will force the government to treat them differently, better. This is the main principle of non-violent revolution, the refusal of execution.
Thus, the light principle of self-sacrifice and heroism is working against Russians. According to statistics, about 30 percent of Russians are deeply convinced that it is better to live here and take bribes than to go into more advanced ways in terms of civil liberties in the country.
One of the biggest flaws of the Russian people is disbelief. Despite the willingness to punch the brickwork by head in the name of holy purpose, our people do not believe in the possibility of changing the situation, especially if the government indirectly confirms this. Today, at an opposition rally in the city of half a million citizens, only a few dozen people showed up, but when the next pawn of United Russia hold their shares in support of the government, promising everyone who came a hundred rubles, there will be sea of people. Nothing changes. Then those people with at the government rally will buy beer with these few hundred rubles and will complain about their low salary, bad roads in the country and how expensive housing and accommodation has become, and they will blame the government. But this is not the fault of the Government. It's the fault of the people who allow the government to do with them whatever it likes.
Imagine a village where every month everybody gives money to the general budget. The village has a headman, who makes an oath to serve the village and honestly manage the budget. Immediately after the election, people forget about him, because people believed that he would act fairly. From the budget he gives 5% on the content of a physician, 5% - for the undertaker, 5% - at the precinct, and the rest he keeps for himself, just because he is headman.
Do not think that in Europe politicians are walking the streets and handing out candies. Almost all Norwegian adults are members of 2-4 community organizations, thus, putting them in full control of its powers.
In Italy, each of the central square of every city is constantly packed with protesters. These people are fighting for their rights. That is what is called civil society
Based on this, only those willing to fight for their liberty deserves a better life.
Therefore, today's Russians do not deserve to live better.
translated to English
for the Ryazan State University Faculty of the Social Science
29.04.2011