Война в Грузии
Сразу оговорюсь: я не буду излагать свое мнение. Во-первых, просто не хочу влезать в полемику; во-вторых, мне вообще сложно составить какое-либо мнение, поскольку с двух полюсов я слышу диаметрально противоположную информацию, а третьего авторитетного источника найти не могу. Поэтому догадываюсь, что истина где-то рядом (предположительно, посередине), но какова она - не знаю. Но меня спрашивали - как к этому относятся в США? - и на этот вопрос я хочу ответить. По возможности беспристрастно (это означает - не надо искать в моих словах скрытых симпатий и антипатий).
Официальная позиция Вашингтона известна. Буш, МакКейн и Обама выступили с заявлениями, в которых однозначно осудили Россию как агрессора и поддержали Грузию как крошечную демократию в опасности. Госсекретарь Кондолиза Райс подчеркнула, что сейчас не 1968 год, когда СССР мог въехать в Чехословакию на танках и "get away with it". Но официальная позиция - это официальная позиция. Однако вот как выглядит обложка свежего выпуска журнала Time (того самого, что выбрал Путина Person of the Year-2007):
(Картинка мелковата, поэтому поясняю: слева от человеческой фигуры - подпись Russian soldier on road to Tbilisi, справа - заголовок - How to Stop a New Cold War. What Russia's invasion of Georgia tells us about today's world.)
В самом журнале несколько статей про Россию. Одна из них - A Question of Honor. Russia's assault on Georgia was wrong - but predictable. How humiliation can shape national interest - проводит мысль, что "Russia is not alone in believing that amassing military strength or using violence helps restore self-respect and honor".
Центральная статья (автор - Zbigniew Brzezinski, который был National Security Adviser to President Carter) еще более жесткая. Запад, как и следовало ожидать, не пришел в восторг от российского трюка с раздачей паспортов жителям Южной Осетии. Российская "миротворческая" деятельность на грузинской территории расценивается как долговременная провокация.
This conflict has been brewing for years. Russia has deliberately instigated the breakup of Georgian territory. Moscow has promoted secessionist activities in several Georgian provinces: Abkhazia, Ajaria and, of course, South Ossetia. It has sponsored rebellious governments in these territories, armed their forces and even bestowed Russian citizenship on the secessionists. These efforts have intensified since the emergence in Georgia of a democratic, pro-Western government. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's resentment toward Georgia and its President, the U.S.-educated Mikheil Saakashvili*, has seemingly become a personal obsession.
The international community has not done enough to push back. In recent weeks, a series of incidents along the fragile cease-fire lines that cut across Georgian territory helped prompt the escalation of violence, including Georgia's abortive effort to remove the "government" of South Ossetia, a small region with a population of about 70,000 people. That rash action was perhaps unwise, but it is evident from Russia's military response that Moscow was waiting for such an act to provide a pretext for the use of force. Large Russian contingents quickly swept into South Ossetia and then into Georgia, sending tanks to Gori and bombing Gori and the capital, Tbilisi.
* Я и раньше слышала, что Саакашвили учился в США. А теперь угадайте, где именно? Во-первых, в Columbia Law School (где получил Master of Laws degree в 1994), а во-вторых (та-да-да-дам!) - в The George Washington University (брал классы в Law School в 1995)! Мир тесен.
Итак, ввод российских войск в Грузию Запад рассматривает однозначно.
Moscow's ruthless attempt to suborn, subdue and subordinate this tiny, independent democracy is reminiscent of Stalin's times. The assault on Georgia is similar to what Stalin's Soviet Union did to Finland in 1939: in both cases, Moscow engaged in an arbitrary, brutal and irresponsible use of force to impose domination over a weaker, democratic neighbor.
Но еще более важно - что Запад планирует предпринять.
The question now is whether the global community can demonstrate to the Kremlin that there are costs for the blatant use of force on behalf of anachronistic imperialist goals.
Войны никто не хочет, в том числе холодной. Однако многие беспокоятся, что российская нефть может заткнуть рот Европе, и тогда Америка будет фактически бессильна.
The West needs to respond to Russia's aggression in a clear and determined manner. That doesn't mean with force. Nor should it fall into a new cold war with Russia. But the West, particularly the U.S., should continue to mobilize the international community to condemn Russia's behavior. ... Russia must be made to understand that it is in danger of becoming ostracized internationally. This should be a matter of considerable concern to Russia's new business élite, who are increasingly vulnerable to global financial pressure. Russia's powerful oligarchs have hundreds of billions of dollars in Western bank accounts. They would stand to lose a great deal in the event of a Cold War-style standoff that could conceivably result, at some stage, in the West's freezing of such holdings.
Подведу итог заключительной цитатой.
The Georgian crisis is a critical test for Russia. If Putin sticks to his guns and subordinates Georgia and removes its freely elected President - something Putin's Foreign Minister has explicitly called for - it is only a question of time before Moscow turns up the heat on Ukraine and the other independent but vulnerable post-Soviet states. The West has to respond carefully but with a moral and strategic focus. Its objective has to be a democratic Russia that is a constructive participant in a global system based on respect for sovereignty, law and democracy. But that objective can be achieved only if the world makes clear to Moscow that a stridently nationalistic Russia will not succeed in any effort to create a new empire in our postimperial age.
Официальная позиция Вашингтона известна. Буш, МакКейн и Обама выступили с заявлениями, в которых однозначно осудили Россию как агрессора и поддержали Грузию как крошечную демократию в опасности. Госсекретарь Кондолиза Райс подчеркнула, что сейчас не 1968 год, когда СССР мог въехать в Чехословакию на танках и "get away with it". Но официальная позиция - это официальная позиция. Однако вот как выглядит обложка свежего выпуска журнала Time (того самого, что выбрал Путина Person of the Year-2007):
(Картинка мелковата, поэтому поясняю: слева от человеческой фигуры - подпись Russian soldier on road to Tbilisi, справа - заголовок - How to Stop a New Cold War. What Russia's invasion of Georgia tells us about today's world.)
В самом журнале несколько статей про Россию. Одна из них - A Question of Honor. Russia's assault on Georgia was wrong - but predictable. How humiliation can shape national interest - проводит мысль, что "Russia is not alone in believing that amassing military strength or using violence helps restore self-respect and honor".
Центральная статья (автор - Zbigniew Brzezinski, который был National Security Adviser to President Carter) еще более жесткая. Запад, как и следовало ожидать, не пришел в восторг от российского трюка с раздачей паспортов жителям Южной Осетии. Российская "миротворческая" деятельность на грузинской территории расценивается как долговременная провокация.
This conflict has been brewing for years. Russia has deliberately instigated the breakup of Georgian territory. Moscow has promoted secessionist activities in several Georgian provinces: Abkhazia, Ajaria and, of course, South Ossetia. It has sponsored rebellious governments in these territories, armed their forces and even bestowed Russian citizenship on the secessionists. These efforts have intensified since the emergence in Georgia of a democratic, pro-Western government. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's resentment toward Georgia and its President, the U.S.-educated Mikheil Saakashvili*, has seemingly become a personal obsession.
The international community has not done enough to push back. In recent weeks, a series of incidents along the fragile cease-fire lines that cut across Georgian territory helped prompt the escalation of violence, including Georgia's abortive effort to remove the "government" of South Ossetia, a small region with a population of about 70,000 people. That rash action was perhaps unwise, but it is evident from Russia's military response that Moscow was waiting for such an act to provide a pretext for the use of force. Large Russian contingents quickly swept into South Ossetia and then into Georgia, sending tanks to Gori and bombing Gori and the capital, Tbilisi.
* Я и раньше слышала, что Саакашвили учился в США. А теперь угадайте, где именно? Во-первых, в Columbia Law School (где получил Master of Laws degree в 1994), а во-вторых (та-да-да-дам!) - в The George Washington University (брал классы в Law School в 1995)! Мир тесен.
Итак, ввод российских войск в Грузию Запад рассматривает однозначно.
Moscow's ruthless attempt to suborn, subdue and subordinate this tiny, independent democracy is reminiscent of Stalin's times. The assault on Georgia is similar to what Stalin's Soviet Union did to Finland in 1939: in both cases, Moscow engaged in an arbitrary, brutal and irresponsible use of force to impose domination over a weaker, democratic neighbor.
Но еще более важно - что Запад планирует предпринять.
The question now is whether the global community can demonstrate to the Kremlin that there are costs for the blatant use of force on behalf of anachronistic imperialist goals.
Войны никто не хочет, в том числе холодной. Однако многие беспокоятся, что российская нефть может заткнуть рот Европе, и тогда Америка будет фактически бессильна.
The West needs to respond to Russia's aggression in a clear and determined manner. That doesn't mean with force. Nor should it fall into a new cold war with Russia. But the West, particularly the U.S., should continue to mobilize the international community to condemn Russia's behavior. ... Russia must be made to understand that it is in danger of becoming ostracized internationally. This should be a matter of considerable concern to Russia's new business élite, who are increasingly vulnerable to global financial pressure. Russia's powerful oligarchs have hundreds of billions of dollars in Western bank accounts. They would stand to lose a great deal in the event of a Cold War-style standoff that could conceivably result, at some stage, in the West's freezing of such holdings.
Подведу итог заключительной цитатой.
The Georgian crisis is a critical test for Russia. If Putin sticks to his guns and subordinates Georgia and removes its freely elected President - something Putin's Foreign Minister has explicitly called for - it is only a question of time before Moscow turns up the heat on Ukraine and the other independent but vulnerable post-Soviet states. The West has to respond carefully but with a moral and strategic focus. Its objective has to be a democratic Russia that is a constructive participant in a global system based on respect for sovereignty, law and democracy. But that objective can be achieved only if the world makes clear to Moscow that a stridently nationalistic Russia will not succeed in any effort to create a new empire in our postimperial age.