Indian shadow over Nepal
Momin Iftikhar
India's neighbours are long used to living with the pain of an unrelenting hegemony but Nepal can be singled out as its most hapless victim; notwithstanding the fact that there are many common bonds that could have formed the basis of a strong and enduring relationship. The two nations are strongly bounded by culture, religion and history yet their relations have remained prickly ever since independence. The overbearing tone of this interaction was set by none other than Pandit Jawhar Lal Nehru, who crafted the highly unjust Indo-Nepal Treaty of 1950, to keep Nepal under its thumb. Speaking to the Indian Parliament he bared the contours of the aggressive Indian Policy towards Nepal. "We are interested in our country's security ... therefore much that we appreciate the independence of Nepal, we can not risk our security by anything not done in Nepal that leads to weakening of that frontier," he said in his speech to the Indian Parliament in December 1950. Guided by such unambiguous directive, to secure Nepal as a springboard for conducting subversive agenda against China, Indian agencies and establishment set about translating Nehru's vision into a reality with a malicious zeal.
India has tried every trick in the book to gain control over Nepal as a vassal state by seeking destruction of all institutions that stood in its way. Nepal's Monarchy and the Royal Nepalese Army fully realized the pernicious Indian design and resolutely tried to resist the inexorable turn of events but thanks to Indian machinations, now lay routed and defunct. The Maoists movement, that was nurtured and sustained by Indian agencies, has won some astounding victories in Nepal and that should have been a cause of satisfaction and celebration for their long time Indian mentors. However in a queer twist of events, reminiscent of India's experience with the LTTE in Sri Lanka, Maoist top leadership which had remained Indian protegees have turned against their erstwhile masters. As things stand, India's well crafted script for Nepal seems to be unravelling, and at an alarming pace. But disappointed as India is with the evolving milieu, it is making all out efforts to get a handle on the situation and is working overtime to turn the situation around.
At the political front Indian planners never believed that Maoists would be able to make a transition as a political force, least of all, the rise of Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Comrade Prachandra) as the Prime Minister of Nepal. Indian policy planners are thoroughly piqued with the initiatives that he has taken so far. Tough anti India rhetoric calling for a review of the Indo Nepal Treaty of 1950 has not amused India nor his efforts to steer Nepal away from the Indian domination to a posture that is more balanced vis-a-vis China. He told Karan Thapar: "Our people feel that the Treaty (of 1950) lacks in equality and that it is not beneficial for Nepal... We want to revise it according to new necessity." Of the provisions that Nepal now wants abrogated are those dealing with open borders and the defence purchase provisions that requires Nepal to consult Delhi before planning for its military requirements outside of India. Another sensitive issue pertains to the recruitment of Nepali Gurkhas in the Indian Armed Forces which Prachandra wants to review in order to attain the status of a sovereign nation. "It is an important topic. Now we are about to draft a new Constitution and that will guide us for Nepal's vital interests... We are looking at rapid economic development so that our youth don't have to look employment in other countries," he told the interviewer.
Nepal's efforts to steer a diplomatic course away from the Indian hegemony has irked Delhi. Indian diplomats were visibly unhappy once Prachandra undertook his first visit to China instead of sticking on to the well grooved precedence of taking a sojourn to India; in line with the unwritten protocol governing the dynamics of the Indo Nepal relations. Growing Nepal China relations have rankled India which, it fears would seriously curtail Indian capability for raking trouble for China in the Tibet Region. It will be now difficult for India to orchestrate the activities of Tibetan `refugees' in Nepal which had been used to rake trouble in Tibet as well as were instrumental in causing embarrassment to China by taking out demonstrations in line with the Indian dictates. The anti China propaganda emanating from Nepal and funded by India would also cease to act as source of embarrassment from Nepalese soil. Nepal's compulsion to diversify its relations with the outside world outside of the Indian hegemony is causing the two countries to move closer. It is worth noting that Nepal had previously opposed China's entry in SAARC where currently it enjoys the status of an observer. A positive transformation in political environment enabling Nepal to exercise sovereignty in exercise of its national will is taking place, much to India's chagrin.
The rise of Maoists in Nepal and their transition into a political force realizes some of the worst Indian nightmares insofar its impact on the Naxalites -ideological soul mates of Nepalese Maoists - active across a wide swath of India, is concerned. The hardcore of Maoists leadership that humbled the established order in Nepal was trained in India in the Jharkhand and Goya areas of Bihar. Maoist supreme, Dr. Babu Ram Bhattaria was educated in Delhi and developed his political philosophy for revolution in Nepal through his contacts in the Communist Party of India RAW cultivated him as an up and coming asset under whose guidance he proved himself to be an asset. Time is now ripe for the Naxalites to cash in the bonds of camaraderie that were developed between the two guerrilla forces over decades. Naxalites are the major security threat now faced by India and if they demand their pound of flesh from their Maosits comrades in Nepal, the Indians can see a marked intensification of the insurgency in the hinterland.
Much might have been lost by India in Nepal but still she has her cards to play. The four party coalitions that rules Nepal includes the Nepalese Congress and the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum that represents the Terai region. It is a matter of opportunity and timings before India calls upon its protegees in the Nepalese political system to wreck the new order that is struggling to find its feet in the uncertain and uncharted era in Nepal. The integration off the Maoist cadres with the Nepalese Army is another thorny issue fraught with possibilities of friction and exploitation. Nepal is a proven hunting ground for RAW where it has intensified its activities to inject instability and mayhem. Two dozen armed groups, operating in the Terai Region with strong Indian cross border connections have started an insurgency. To enforce subservience, India is certain to exploit its economic stranglehold over Nepal as well which is totally dependent on its overbearing neighbour for all imports. Stage is all set and Indian shadow over Nepal is bound to get darker in days to come.