Baloch Dissidents Cannot Make Balochistan Independent
By Asif Haroon Raja
The reason why foreign powers have got attracted towards Balochistan is because of its strategic importance and wealth. It has Makran coastline in the south, which connects it with Iran in the southwest and Afghanistan in the northwest. It has a seaport at Gawadar that was built by China. Gawadar along Makran coastline lies at the opening of Strait of Hormuz. Balochistan has huge quantities of natural gas, and unexplored oil reserves apart from gold, copper and variety of other costly mineral resources.
More importantly the USA wants to control the port of Gawadar, and eventually start its dream oil pipeline from Central Asia through Afghanistan. Geo-strategic and economic interests of the USA and its allies together with vested groups within Balochistan working upon foreign agenda and ineptness of provincial government has made the situation volatile.
Population of Balochistan is 8 million out of which the Baloch and Brahvis are 0.4 million, the Pathans 3.5 million and settlers' 0.5 million. Within Baloch dominated areas, Sindhi-Balochis residing in Sibi and Jacobabad areas comprising Jamalis, Magsis are peaceful and friendly. Pat Feeder Canal and Katchi dam help them in their agriculture. Those living in Quetta and immediate surroundings are involved in business activities and smuggling and pose no threat to the federation. Pashtuns do not have the germs of separation.
They are better educated and prosperous and are pro-Pakistan and do not subscribe to the Baloch separatist agenda. They are fully involved in cloth business, transportation and agriculture, fruit-growing and also in smuggling. Shia Hazaras are pro-Pakistan and do not support Baloch nationalists seeking separation of Balochistan. People living along the Makran coast known as Makranis have made fishing as their main source of earning and except for a small number all are peaceful people. Sizeable number of Makranis has settled in Karachi (Lyari).
Only those Balochis residing in Turbat and surroundings towards the coastal side are trouble makers. Their numbers do not exceed 3to 5 lacs and those who have shifted to the hills and are actively involved in terrorism are about 2-3500. Small portion of Baloch dominated Naushki is connected with Helmand province of southern Afghanistan. Naushki route, along which a large desert patch acts as a barrier, was used as a supply route but has now been effectively blocked. Another route via Zhob through Pashtun belt is difficult for foreign agencies and Baloch rebels for their operation because of non-cooperation of the Pashtuns.
Owing to demographic and geographic constraints, the small segment of trouble creators is in no position to achieve independence of Balochistan. Moreover, after Nawab Akbar Bugti, the nationalists are deprived of a popular leader.
The runaway Sardars trying to stir up Baloch nationalism and espousing the cause of independent Balochistan are unpopular and have no standing among the great majority of Balochis who are loyal to the concept of Pakistan.
CIA, MI-6, RAW and RAAM are deeply involved in Balochistan. Brig Neel, the Consul General in Indian Consulate in Kandahar helped by Afghan National Directorate of Security has been the major coordinator to keep the pot of insurgency in Balochistan on the boil. India's focus has been on students and teachers of schools and colleges in Balochistan, particularly within Baloch dominated regions and Quetta.
It has invested huge amounts to subvert the Baloch youth and make them anti-Pakistan. Indians invite Baloch teachers and professors to India and bribe them. RAW's sustained efforts resulted in making the Baloch students sing their own Baloch national anthem, and hoist Baloch flags instead of Pakistan flag on school/college buildings. Hatred against Pakistan, Pak Army and Punjabis has been ingrained into the young and impressionable minds of Baloch students.
One reason of continuing deterioration of law and order in Balochistan is the reversal of Gen Musharraf's policy of A and B Areas. Over 95% territory had been converted to A Area under police control which produced good results and helped in keeping law and order under control. The current provincial government reversed his policy in 2008 and handed over control of 95% territory to Levies and only 5% to Police.
While 48% population resides in cities, 52% live in rural areas in Balochistan. The Levies are recruited from the Baloch tribes strictly on the recommendations of the Baloch Sardars. As such the Sardars exercise total control over the Levies. While the provincial police has been politicized and made ineffective, Levies are used by MPs as per their desires who are empowered to give salaries to them.
The criminals after committing crimes in cities slip to B Areas, which are within grasping reach (half an hour to one hour distance), where the police cannot meddle. Since the entire Balochistan government including the chief minister is involved in criminal activities, it takes no interest in catching the criminals.
It lacks the political will to improve the security situation in the province and to address the genuine grievances of the Baloch. Control of B Areas by the Levies suit the Pashtuns as well since they too are heavily involved in smuggling.
The military operations of all sorts were stopped in May 2008 under federal government's orders once Haqooq-e-Balochistan package was approved. Since then no covert or overt operation has been conducted and not a single Army personnel is involved on any operational duty as is being alleged by some Baloch leaders. Majority of Frontier Corps (FC) wings are deployed along the Afghan-Iran border, while others are on protection duties and receive orders directly from the Interior Ministry. The FC is called out to engage in most troubled areas under orders of the provincial and federal governments. It is helping in keeping the vital Karachi-Turbat-Quetta, Sibi-Bolan-Quetta roads and Coastal Highway open.
Although work on converting Kohlu and Sui into military cantonments has been stopped under Federal government's orders and Sui garrison has been converted into Pakistan Educational City, cantonments in my humble view not only help in promoting education and bringing prosperity, but also facilitate the Army to promptly respond to the natural disasters in affected areas as well as to foreign threats.
45% cadets in Cadet College near Sui functioning for over a year are Baloch. All Baloch graduates should be given jobs in government departments to help checkmate the trend among the misled youth to join insurgent forces for money. Handing over Gawadar Port to Singapore was unwise. Reportedly, efforts are in hand to transfer the operational charge of the port to the Chinese.
Balochistan will continue to simmer for quite some time because of involvement of too many foreign actors, but will not break off as feared by some since the troublesome Baloch do not have the ability to develop critical mass and unless critical mass is developed, insurgency cannot turn into a province wide insurgency as was the case in East Pakistan.
The problem for the USA is that BLA together with BRA and BLF are not able to break away Balochistan from Pakistan. The trouble makers supporting the terrorist groups don't even have support of 10% Balochi population.
With this narrow support base confined to limited space, the dissidents are neither capable of building mass movement nor have the ability to defeat the security forces.
That is why their exiled leaders keep urging foreign powers to step in and make Balochistan an independent state as had been done in former East Pakistan in 1971. However, this thought must not make us complacent. What is urgently required is to control the ongoing simmering by removing socio-politico-economic grievances of the people of Balochistan and above all making the province stable and peaceful. Target killers and those pursuing foreign agenda must be brought to justice otherwise the patriots will get disillusioned.