US politics

[overload74]

Super Tuesday today.

Choose wisely, Yanks. I don’t think you can do worse that the last eight years, but please don’t feel need to prove me wrong.

Comments

[overload74]

At this stage, the only interesting part of the Presidential race is the battle between Obama and Clinton as they’re pretty much neck and neck with Obama gathering more and more momentum. It’s probably going to be pretty tight at the end. In contract, the GOP race is pretty much done and dusted - McCain is going to get the nomination.

At this stage, the turnout between Democrats and Republicans is quite interesting - the Democrats outnumbering the GOP voters by almost two to one. Whether this means that the Democrats are more divided over whom they want as a candidate or whether the Republicans find their choices a bit lacking isn’t clear.

McCain isn’t really a traditional Republican nominee; whilst he’s got the military service that is valued highly by the GOP his views on things like immigration are further left than Clinton’s. A lot of the hard-line social conservatives / evangelicals are wary of his commitment to cross the party line to push through legislation. He knows that Huckabee can’t catch him (Chuck Norris support notwithstanding) and where states are split between Romney and Huckabee he’s telling his supporters to vote Huckabee, leaving him a big lead over both.

The Democratic race might go down to their party convention in May and depend on the votes of the ‘Super Delegates’. Clinton has a wealth of experience over Obama but she’s a hugely divisive figure. Some Democrats see her as more right wing that McCain and would rather vote for him; some see her as nothing but a glove puppet for her husband to get four more years. It’d certainly be easier for the Republican party to encourage voter turnout against Clinton as Bill is reviled by the further right-wing element.

Obama is the odd one; he hands-down beats the rest of the candidates as a public speaker and his message of change and unity is starting to strike a chord with both the young and minority demographics, both of whom almost never vote. The major knock on him is his lack of experience, both domestic and abroad. He’s certainly the most exciting political figure the US has had since JFK.

If Obama is the Democratic candidate, I think he’ll be McCain by a fair distance. If it’s Clinton, I think she loses narrowly.