Pacquiao-Cotto: Prediction: PAC-MAN, TKO 11
Like every other Filipino on the planet, I'm going to be watching the much-anticipated Manny Pacquiao v. Miguel Cotto fight tonight. I've been looking forward to this bout for months, but I haven't really gone on record with my thoughts on the contest, or a prediction, so here goes:
Tale of the tape Two things stand out to me. First, Cotto is the "natural" welterweight. He had to work extra hard to make the 145-pound contract weight for this fight. Second, Cotto goes into this fight with a two-inch reach advantage, 69 inches to Pacquiao's 67.
The big question going into tonight will be whether Cotto will be as drained by making weight as Oscar de la Hoya was when Pacquiao demolished the Golden Boy. I don't think that's going to be the case. Cotto has shown tremendous heart in the past, even in his disappointing loss to Antonio Margarito--even when weakened, Cotto went very deep.
On the reach issue, this is very interesting. Cotto's fight against Zab Judah showed that the Boricua Bomber has a formidable left jab. As a lefty fighting from the orthodox stance, Cotto (theoretically) can snap out a very powerful, very quick jab. Assuming Cotto can keep his lead foot outside of Pacquiao's, we can expect to see a lot of that jab, setting up three- and four-punch combinations to the body.
Styles Make Fights. Pacquiao tends to come in quick and overwhelm his opponents. When trouble strikes, he uses quick feet to get outside and regroup. Cotto tends to keep moving forward, bullying his opponents into trading blows, wearing them down with lots of body shots. Pac-man will try to dispose of Cotto early, like he did Ricky Hatton, taking advantage of his quick hands while Cotto is lumbering forward.
Cotto, for his part, needs to cut off the ring, push Manny around, and be sure that his feet are planted. He'll have to snap out that jab and follow it up to the body to try and slow Manny down. His is probably the strongest puncher Pacquiao has faced so far.
Wild Cards Cotto cuts easily and bleeds freely. He makes up for this physical shortcoming with prodigious heart, continuing where lesser men might have surrendered. Pac-man has been consistently improving his technique from fight to fight--so I expect him to be smart tactically here.
Cotto has a bad habit of throwing 'accidental' low blows. It makes me wonder whether or not his victory over Zab Judah would have been closer, had he not hammered Judah's bollocks in with two low blows in he early rounds. If there's a similar "accident" tonight, things may look bad for Manny.
PREDICTION Tough fight to call. I'm picking PACQUIAO TKO 11. Manny cuts Cotto early, and manages to convince the ringside doc to end it. Pac-man will be celebrating not just a win, but the end of a furious series of body blows. Sub-prediction: the first three rounds of this fight will be crucial. If Manny can impose his will on the bigger Cotto, it will be harder for Cotto to get stronger in the later rounds. Manny needs to be busy and accurate.
Tale of the tape Two things stand out to me. First, Cotto is the "natural" welterweight. He had to work extra hard to make the 145-pound contract weight for this fight. Second, Cotto goes into this fight with a two-inch reach advantage, 69 inches to Pacquiao's 67.
The big question going into tonight will be whether Cotto will be as drained by making weight as Oscar de la Hoya was when Pacquiao demolished the Golden Boy. I don't think that's going to be the case. Cotto has shown tremendous heart in the past, even in his disappointing loss to Antonio Margarito--even when weakened, Cotto went very deep.
On the reach issue, this is very interesting. Cotto's fight against Zab Judah showed that the Boricua Bomber has a formidable left jab. As a lefty fighting from the orthodox stance, Cotto (theoretically) can snap out a very powerful, very quick jab. Assuming Cotto can keep his lead foot outside of Pacquiao's, we can expect to see a lot of that jab, setting up three- and four-punch combinations to the body.
Styles Make Fights. Pacquiao tends to come in quick and overwhelm his opponents. When trouble strikes, he uses quick feet to get outside and regroup. Cotto tends to keep moving forward, bullying his opponents into trading blows, wearing them down with lots of body shots. Pac-man will try to dispose of Cotto early, like he did Ricky Hatton, taking advantage of his quick hands while Cotto is lumbering forward.
Cotto, for his part, needs to cut off the ring, push Manny around, and be sure that his feet are planted. He'll have to snap out that jab and follow it up to the body to try and slow Manny down. His is probably the strongest puncher Pacquiao has faced so far.
Wild Cards Cotto cuts easily and bleeds freely. He makes up for this physical shortcoming with prodigious heart, continuing where lesser men might have surrendered. Pac-man has been consistently improving his technique from fight to fight--so I expect him to be smart tactically here.
Cotto has a bad habit of throwing 'accidental' low blows. It makes me wonder whether or not his victory over Zab Judah would have been closer, had he not hammered Judah's bollocks in with two low blows in he early rounds. If there's a similar "accident" tonight, things may look bad for Manny.
PREDICTION Tough fight to call. I'm picking PACQUIAO TKO 11. Manny cuts Cotto early, and manages to convince the ringside doc to end it. Pac-man will be celebrating not just a win, but the end of a furious series of body blows. Sub-prediction: the first three rounds of this fight will be crucial. If Manny can impose his will on the bigger Cotto, it will be harder for Cotto to get stronger in the later rounds. Manny needs to be busy and accurate.