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Пока все еще нет оснований откззываться от «покерной» модели для описания складывающейся в России политической ситуации. Вообще-то говоря, модель родилась не сегодня. Просто сегодня ее явное употребление наилучшим образом подходит к моменту, повторяющемуся из раза в раз.
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This was a real coup, until it wasn’t. For much of Saturday, Prigozhin was marching units of his 25,000-man Wagner militia toward the gates of Moscow, rolling through Russia’s Ukrainian command headquarters at Rostov-on-Don and north to Voronezh. Sources tell me the Russian FSB put up roadblocks along the way, to little effect. Putin called up the National Guard to defend Moscow.
As Putin said in a blood-curdling address Saturday, this was becoming a 1917 moment, when the nation was reeling from another misbegotten war and, in Putin’s words, “Russians were killing Russians, brothers killing brothers.”
Throughout the day, the questions that raced through Washington and other world capitals was whether Prigozhin would continue his “march for justice” on the capital - and if Putin would order Russian troops to fire on the rebels to halt their advance. Sources tell me that as the Wagner forces moved north, the regular army neither followed nor hindered them.
Only madmen jump into the abyss in situations like this, and neither Putin nor Prigozhin is crazy. This was like a game of chicken where both cars swerve in the end, or a duel where both fighters shoot in the air, to fight another day.
Бандитские стрелки в 1990ых были вариантом игры в "chicken" - побеждал беспредельщик, готовый переступить любые грани. В конце концов в роли такого беспредельщика выступила «Лубянская преступная группировка», отжавшая у бандитов все крыши. Ныне предел нащупался. Это будет иметь последствия, хотя и не сразу.
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