(no subject)
Недавно я участвовал в зум-разговоре с несколькими старыми знакомыми, американцами имеющими большой опыт работы с Россией. Их естественно беспокоит и интересует сегодняшняя ситуация. Наши мнения, как и должно, расходились по многим пунктам. В продолжение разговора один из участников разослал свои сомнения и ссылку на подкаст из «Экономиста»:
Yesterday I heard this Economist podcast that the Russian economy and financial world are doing better than expected. I'm also seeing more articles on the cost to the West of sanctions -- not just gas prices but grain and seafood. The next month will be interesting....
https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2022/03/31/theres-been-a-resilience-that-was-hard-to-predict-russias-economy
Я должен был ответить, что и сделал:
I have a different view of what is happening with the Russian economy hit by the sanctions. First of all a general comment. It is very premature to try and see some significant effects of the introduced sanctions. They will take some time to show up in the everyday life of Russian society. Second of all, I should disagree with the over-optimistic conclusions on the resilience of the ruble. The author rightly observes that initially ruble fell against major hard currencies. Like from 75 rubles per dollar to 120. But then, the author says, it came back to almost pre-sanctions level. That is not correct. When the Russian Central Bank saw the free fall of the ruble it swiftly introduced very severe regulations on hard currency circulation making it virtually impossible to buy dollars on free markets. Thus Russia came back to the old Soviet pattern where the exchange rate is set by the government not the market. It means that talking about stabilization of the ruble and coming back to the pre-sanction level just does not make sense. Third of all, even now after just a month of the new restricted situation there are some signs of big problems. Russian automotive industry, transportation, aviation machine-building, etc crucially depend on spare parts supply from the Western countries. Let alone electronics and other high-tech equipment. As a result of sanctions that disrupted the supply chain for those industries, quite a few enterprises have been put on hold with employees laid out. And this is just beginning. It will be getting worse each month.
The sanctions will affect other countries as well. Including the Europe and the US. The world economy has become very interlaced and interdependent. But we have to make these sacrifices because we are dealing with a dangerous enemy. We have to realize that we are at war. The free world cannot be complacent anymore, it is been too long and we can see the awful result.
Yesterday I heard this Economist podcast that the Russian economy and financial world are doing better than expected. I'm also seeing more articles on the cost to the West of sanctions -- not just gas prices but grain and seafood. The next month will be interesting....
https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2022/03/31/theres-been-a-resilience-that-was-hard-to-predict-russias-economy
Я должен был ответить, что и сделал:
I have a different view of what is happening with the Russian economy hit by the sanctions. First of all a general comment. It is very premature to try and see some significant effects of the introduced sanctions. They will take some time to show up in the everyday life of Russian society. Second of all, I should disagree with the over-optimistic conclusions on the resilience of the ruble. The author rightly observes that initially ruble fell against major hard currencies. Like from 75 rubles per dollar to 120. But then, the author says, it came back to almost pre-sanctions level. That is not correct. When the Russian Central Bank saw the free fall of the ruble it swiftly introduced very severe regulations on hard currency circulation making it virtually impossible to buy dollars on free markets. Thus Russia came back to the old Soviet pattern where the exchange rate is set by the government not the market. It means that talking about stabilization of the ruble and coming back to the pre-sanction level just does not make sense. Third of all, even now after just a month of the new restricted situation there are some signs of big problems. Russian automotive industry, transportation, aviation machine-building, etc crucially depend on spare parts supply from the Western countries. Let alone electronics and other high-tech equipment. As a result of sanctions that disrupted the supply chain for those industries, quite a few enterprises have been put on hold with employees laid out. And this is just beginning. It will be getting worse each month.
The sanctions will affect other countries as well. Including the Europe and the US. The world economy has become very interlaced and interdependent. But we have to make these sacrifices because we are dealing with a dangerous enemy. We have to realize that we are at war. The free world cannot be complacent anymore, it is been too long and we can see the awful result.