The Dead in Iraq: IraqBodyCount's 45,000 to John Hopkins' 600,000
When a John Hopkins survey in 2004 that 100,000 civilians had died since the beginning of the Iraq war, there was a big flurry. Neo-cons said the number was impossible. I think they were still claiming the deaths were in four digits. Some pointed to Iraq Body Count, a site which opposes the war and put the confirmed deaths in the high teens.
Now John Hopkins has done another survey estimating that around 600,000 Iraqis are dead. This time, Iraq Body Count has a rebuttal saying that they don't think the number is possible. I'm not really sure either way, but I'm looking at Iraq Body Count's press release about the John Hopkins survey.
1. On average, a thousand Iraqis have been violently killed every single day in the first half of 2006, with less than a tenth of them being noticed by any public surveillance mechanisms;
I think this is possible. In Bagdad, the pulper for the sewers shut down because it was choked with human corpses. They had to bolt down manhole covers so that people wouldn't dump corpses in the sewers as much. The bodies are polluting the Tigris river. Sure, maybe 90% of the murders are unobserved.
2. Some 800,000 or more Iraqis suffered blast wounds and other serious conflict-related injuries in the past two years, but less than a tenth of them received any kind of hospital treatment;
A pregnant woman was rushing to a hospital to have her baby and died after several U.S. servicemen attacked with automatic weapons. This is one of a few stories that I've heard that make me believe that yes, maybe 90% of those injured have found themselves unable to seek medical treatment.
3. Over 7% of the entire adult male population of Iraq has already been killed in violence, with no less than 10% in the worst affected areas covering most of central Iraq;
Maybe. That's a huge segment, but when I get news updates on Iraq, one of my main reactions is, "Aren't they running out of Iraqis"?
4. Half a million death certificates were received by families which were never officially recorded as having been issued;
That really does seem a bit unlikely. It seems possible that the families John Hopkins surveyed might be typical of Iraqi mortality rates but atypically high in their receiving proper paperwork for the dead.
5. The Coalition has killed far more Iraqis in the last year than in earlier years containing the initial massive "Shock and Awe" invasion and the major assaults on Falluja.
On this one, I have to say that does seem a little odd.
Both numbers are pretty horrific. Wikipedia's entry on Hussein's violations has broad estimates, but it looks like Hussein killed about 300,000 during his 25 years, mostly during a couple uprisings. Let's hope that John Hopkins is way off and the actions of the U.S. are still favorably comparable to the government of a genocidal dictator.
Now John Hopkins has done another survey estimating that around 600,000 Iraqis are dead. This time, Iraq Body Count has a rebuttal saying that they don't think the number is possible. I'm not really sure either way, but I'm looking at Iraq Body Count's press release about the John Hopkins survey.
1. On average, a thousand Iraqis have been violently killed every single day in the first half of 2006, with less than a tenth of them being noticed by any public surveillance mechanisms;
I think this is possible. In Bagdad, the pulper for the sewers shut down because it was choked with human corpses. They had to bolt down manhole covers so that people wouldn't dump corpses in the sewers as much. The bodies are polluting the Tigris river. Sure, maybe 90% of the murders are unobserved.
2. Some 800,000 or more Iraqis suffered blast wounds and other serious conflict-related injuries in the past two years, but less than a tenth of them received any kind of hospital treatment;
A pregnant woman was rushing to a hospital to have her baby and died after several U.S. servicemen attacked with automatic weapons. This is one of a few stories that I've heard that make me believe that yes, maybe 90% of those injured have found themselves unable to seek medical treatment.
3. Over 7% of the entire adult male population of Iraq has already been killed in violence, with no less than 10% in the worst affected areas covering most of central Iraq;
Maybe. That's a huge segment, but when I get news updates on Iraq, one of my main reactions is, "Aren't they running out of Iraqis"?
4. Half a million death certificates were received by families which were never officially recorded as having been issued;
That really does seem a bit unlikely. It seems possible that the families John Hopkins surveyed might be typical of Iraqi mortality rates but atypically high in their receiving proper paperwork for the dead.
5. The Coalition has killed far more Iraqis in the last year than in earlier years containing the initial massive "Shock and Awe" invasion and the major assaults on Falluja.
On this one, I have to say that does seem a little odd.
Both numbers are pretty horrific. Wikipedia's entry on Hussein's violations has broad estimates, but it looks like Hussein killed about 300,000 during his 25 years, mostly during a couple uprisings. Let's hope that John Hopkins is way off and the actions of the U.S. are still favorably comparable to the government of a genocidal dictator.