Filling some gaps about the first war (part 4) The Seer - Heard and Overheard

Jul 12, 2014 10:05

The next turning point is, of course, Sybil's first known prophecy. We do not know exactly when it was made, but we know the academic year 1979-80 was in session (based on Sybil's claim to have been teaching 'nearly sixteen years' in September 1995. In June 1996 Harry saw the date on the prophecy record - 'some sixteen years previously', so we can probably narrow it down to January to May 1980 (I'm interpreting the use of 'some' indicates rounding, but as 16 is neither around or semi-round number I'm guessing the rounding was at the level of months rather than years). If I could trust Sybil not to claim more seniority than she actually had I'd say it was probably closer to the early end, but since Sybil would be just the person to 'round' 15 years and 4 months upwards I won't.

Some fans think Albus' claim that the prophecy was made 'shortly' before Harry's birth means it was towards the late part of the January-May interval, but as he also claimed to have borrowed the invisibility cloak 'shortly' before James' death, and this 'shortly' turned out to be at least 3-4 months earlier.

In any case, relative to events described in part 3 of this series, the prophecy was made some time after the war escalated, though possibly before Crouch's policies were put in action.

There are many questions about the circumstances under which the prophecy was made, but the main thing we need to explain is how come Severus left the Hog's Head knowing the first, but not the second part of the prophecy, when he was seen outside Sybil's room at the *end* of the delivery of the prophecy.

[Reader duniazade made the whole line of speculation unnecessary. Why should we trust Dumbledore to be telling the truth about what Severus overheard when we know he lied about when Severus was removed from the building? Albus has a motivation to obscure the circumstances because he doesn't want Harry to know who was the person who overheard the prophecy, nor does he want Harry to know that Albus was immediately aware that the prophecy was overheard, and by a Death Eater of all people. It makes more sense that Severus simply heard the end of the prophecy 'The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord will be born as the seventh month dies']

I am leaving my convoluted speculations for posterity anyway.

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Various scenarios are possible to explain this:

1) Severus couldn't hear the end of the prophecy because of the noise caused by his interaction with Aberforth - the commotion that Sybil reported. This may have been shouting, perhaps some banging if there was a physical struggle. When the door opened (probably by Albus, who wanted to know what was going on and whether this indicated Sybil was overheard) Albus saw Severus and Aberforth - and while Albus would have liked to Obliviate Severus, the latter escaped before Albus managed to do so.

2) The same as above, except Albus did not intend to Obliviate Severus.

3) When Albus heard Sybil speaking in a strange voice about the potential vanquisher of the Dark Lord he realized something of importance was going on. He cast the Interpurbable spell (the same one the Order used in OOTP) on the door. This is what prevented Severus from hearing the rest of the prophecy. The door opened when Albus removed the spell. Knowing that Severus could not have heard the second half of the prophecy, Albus didn't feel the need to Obliviate Severus.

4) As in 3), except Albus meant to Obliviate Severus, but for some reason wasn't able to do so by the time Severus escaped.

5) Severus actually heard the entire prophecy, but Albus Obliviated the 2nd part.

Can we narrow down the possibilities?

How good is Albus at thinking on his feet? We see him duel Voldemort in OOTP - when he is in good health and expecting to be attacked his reflexes are fast enough. Similarly he is quick to deal with a known danger in the cave (even after having drunk the green potion). He deals with the unexpected crisis of the capture of the DA confidently - but it is Kingsley, not him, who Obliviates (or Confounds, or Imperiurizes) Marietta. And when Cornelius Fudge shows him the parchment Albus pauses and thinks until he comes up with a plan that protects Harry from expulsion while keeping him free (and in possession of the Elder Wand). Similarly, when he receives the news that his death was inevitable within a year he has to take the time to think until he has a plan. So at least twice when something somewhat unexpected happened Albus was not all that quick to respond. This is why I find scenario 5 the least likely. I would have understood if Albus had Obliviated Severus of the entire sequence of events, but I think more deliberate thought would have been needed to identify which part of the prophecy would be the best to erase.

Why would Albus not want to Obliviate Severus? I doubt this was out of respect to Severus' rights, especially considering how Albus treated Severus as a student after the werewolf debacle. Nor can I believe that until Severus' escape Albus had not yet realized the significance of the prophecy, as he appears to have changed his mind about hiring Sybil on the spot. I have seen fans claim Albus didn't know Severus was a DE. Maybe, but this is irrelevant. Even if Severus was not going directly from the Hog's Head to Voldemort's headquarters (wherever they may have been in those days) - what guarantee did Albus have that he wasn't going to spill what he overheard to his drinking buddies or anyone else? We have seen how fast rumors can spread in Wizarding Britain - Voldemort would have heard some version of the prophecy within days.

Then again, some say that Voldemort's ability to break through the Memory Charm that Crouch Sr had cast on Bertha Jorkins means Obliviating Severus would have done no good (worse, it would have put Severus at risk of mind-frying). Well, we know there was something wrong with Bertha's case because the Charm caused chronic memory problems. If Albus had taken the time to do a careful job Voldemort wouldn't have noticed that there was an Obliviated memory there. What he could have done was: Immobilize Severus before he got away. Finish his dealings with Sybil, part from her and taking the immobilized Severus off to some side room. Interrogate him as needed. Obliviate the entire sequence of events from before the moment he saw Albus going to Sybil's room, Have Aberforth revive him and tell him how he passed out (maybe with some embarrassing details about what he was doing earlier). Notice that if Albus had managed to immobilize or stun Severus he would have had time to come up with an improved plan, as detailed as needed, later.

For these reasons, I don't really believe option 2. The only situation I'm willing to believe Albus didn't even try to Obliviate Severus is scenario 3, where Albus knew through his own precautions that Severus indeed couldn't have heard the entire prophecy. Note that this requires for Albus to realize that knowing the second part has a chance of preventing Voldemort from acting on the first part of the prophecy. If this is what happened then Albus is at least as culpable of the deaths of the Potters as Severus (in that under this scenario Albus made a choice knowing he was making it more likely that Tom would try to eliminate his would-be vanquisher). However, there are still scenarios 1 and 4 where Albus simply wasn't able to act in time. Maybe Aberforth was in his line of fire. Or maybe Severus was quick to slip out of Aberforth's hold and Disapparate.
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Following duniazade's scenario: The fact that Severus could have listened to the end of the prophecy suggests that Albus did not ward the room off at all. This supports him being slow to respond rather than deliberately letting Severus go unObliviated. Unless of course what Sybil tells us was manipulated by the brothers Dumbledore after the fact, and what happened was entirely different (Severus was caught, interrogated, allowed to leave with a selected part of the prophecy, while Sybil's memory was modified to what she told Harry - perhaps as an excuse for her hiring, as she understands it).

Whatever the reason for not-Obliviating Severus, by the end of the evening Albus must have known what Severus overheard. All this requires is putting Aberforth's memory of the event in the Pensieve. By exploring that memory Albus could find out the extent of what *anyone* was capable of overhearing. Therefore soon after the events Albus knew what Tom might learn of the prophecy, and what would be kept from him. Which means he knew that sooner or later Tom could figure out who the would-be vanquisher was going to be, but not know that going after the person had the risk of marking him and making the prophecy come true. And he knew for certain that the prophecy was about a boy that would be born in July. Even if the prophecy was made as early as January 1980, he should have been aware of Alice and Lily's pregnancies - they must have discovered their respective pregnancies sometime in November or December and dropped out of active fighting (to protect the unborn from spell damage). He couldn't have ruled out categorically the possibility of a third prophecy boy somewhere, but chances were low. So what were his options?

Regretfully, he wasn't completely in control of the situation. But he could choose to play the prophecy down or up. Playing it down probably required not hiring Sybil - since Severus overheard what little impression she made before the prophecy. And it definitely meant not to submit the prophecy to the Unspeakables. But Albus did both. Well, maybe he hired Sybil to protect her from Tom, in case he decided the version he heard was incomplete and Sybil needed to be brain-fried until she yielded the rest. Maybe. And he only submitted the prophecy for recording out of good citizenship. Really! Or perhaps he wanted Voldemort to know (through his Ministry spies) that Albus took the prophecy as seriously as he did? However once the prophecy record was placed on the shelf, the only one who could remove it was Tom himself. And the Ministry security being what we saw it to be in OOTP - what was Albus thinking?? Only Tom's mistaken belief that he heard all there was to hear of the prophecy kept him from finding out the rest. To be fair - we don't know that Albus submitted the record immediately. But we do know he did so before the Godric's Hollow attack, because the record did not have Harry's name from the start.

As for the prophecy record, here is an 'Oh dear, maths!' moment: The record of Sybil's prophecy was placed on row 97, which was not the last row. If each row has 5 shelves as in a typical bookcase, and if there are about 20 orbs per shelf (they can be held in one hand so actually I think a shelf should be able to hold even more) then we have some 10,000 records. If the collection was started when the Ministry was founded, around 1692 that means about 30 prophecies per year (adding an entire row every 3 years). Of course there may have been an older collection, maybe starting from the founding of Hogwarts that got grandfathered into the current collection - which means that on average a row-full of prophecies is added every 10 years. (But if in the distant past there were significantly fewer British wizards maybe the rate of prophecies was slower then and is faster now...) Alternatively, maybe the prophecy records aren't in chronological order but in alphabetical order of the Seers who pronounced them, and Sybil's prophecy is towards the end because T is far down the alphabet. Maybe there are gaps for future prophecies. Still, there should be thousands of records. So who makes all these prophecies? What are they about? How many of them are about serious historical events, how many predict personal fates (predicting good and bad marital matches is so popular in fanfic) and how many are about outcomes of Quidditch games? If there are so many Seers making pronouncements all the time why isn't Divination taken seriously? Why are kids taught to read tea leaves instead of research about how past prophecies turned out in order to improve interpretations?

Now let's look at Tom's side of things. The prophecy was overheard by 20-year-old Severus Snape. We do not know what he did for a living between leaving Hogwarts in June 1978 and returning as a teacher in September 1981. We know he was a DE at the time of the prophecy but it is notable that Igor Karkaroff could not recall any specific crime with which to accuse him, nor was Bella impressed with his performance.

Personally, I'm sure Severus found a way to make a living somehow. I think the Ministry was not an option - his reputation (whether justified or not) for Dark Arts interests at a time when the Dark Arts were out of favor may have been a detriment, as well as not being the type of person Horace Slughorn would promote - while at the same time his resentment for the wizarding establishment (the result of Albus' handling of his treatment by the Marauders, especially the werewolf debacle) made working within said establishment unattractive. Lacking the money to start his own business left being employed by others in the private sector his most likely direction. In a conventional way that would mean being an assistant in a shop - a bit like Tom before him. But perhaps his ties to Lucius Malfoy (ones Narcissa thought left Severus in debt many years later) stem from this period. At this time Lucius was in his mid-twenties. The Malfoy assets were controlled by Abraxas, but even Lucius' pocket-money could have been a significant resource: I imagine Lucius paying Severus for some 'special' potions - whether for use in DE crimes or for recreational purposes - and then lining up orders from his friends as well. (Years later when Lucius was on guard for Ministry searches of Dark items Lucius felt the need to get rid of some 'poisons'. Were these left-overs from a stash he once ordered from Severus?

Working for Lucius and other well-to-do young wizards may have been how Severus got involved with Voldemort. Sometimes he'd provide a potion, sometimes he'd treat an injured DE, no questions asked. Or he'd develop the occasional spell (or variant on an existing spell). Being around Lucius and his friends would make joining their 'club' seem like a way to get ahead. After all, here they were, letting him somewhat into their social circle and paying him to do potions work, some of it actually quite cool. And the Dark Lord might even teach him proper Dark Arts! (Or perhaps contact him with someone who would teach him, can't skip to the head of the line so fast.) And if he acquired cool esoteric knowledge he could make himself into a more impressive wizard - more impressive than that Potter, Lily surely would see that! Of course there was talk about how badly Hogwarts was being run by the Old Fool and the evils of the corrupt Ministry that was interfering with traditional wizarding ways - and this kind of talk resonated with his own anger and bitterness with his marginalization and mistreatment by Dumbledore and other staff members. And it seemed it was only a short while until the Dark Lord and his supporters will be able to bring the wizarding establishment to its knees, teach Dumbledore and the Ministry the lesson of their lives and avenge all the pain they had caused people like Severus. Joining that cause was both logical and satisfying. And if indeed the Dark Lord were to win, and Severus had an important role in that victory, wouldn't he grant Severus' request to spare Lily as reward for his service?

From Tom's POV Severus was quite the prize: He had been looking for someone he could send, when the time came, as an undercover agent to Hogwarts. Thanks to his own brilliance, there was an opening every year, but it was hard to find someone to fill it. Naturally many of his followers were close relatives of his own old schoolmates, making them automatically suspicious. And only a few of them were the professor type. But here comes one who not only passed his classes well but invested in personal research, some of it directly related to the Dark Arts (and the defense against them). His mother was too young (and of the wrong sex) to have been Tom's associate, and his father was a Muggle, so he might not be immediately suspected of association with supporters of pureblood supremacy. Probably good idea to keep him out of trouble so the Old Fool would be fooled into hiring him.

OK, back to Tom. Severus exceeded his poor performance so far, and brought what appears to be a prophecy.

If Dumbledore was truthful about Severus having overheard the beginning of the prophecy then it was very ambiguous. I attach my original thoughts, following this interpretation:

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"The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches. Born to those who have thrice defied him, born as the seventh month dies." What could this possibly mean? Well, it means trouble, of course. And like any prophecy, it was annoyingly vague. He needs to know what is meant by 'approaches', what counts as 'defiance' and 'seventh month' of what? The most natural meaning of 'approaches' is coming closer. Was this about someone traveling to Britain? Tom certainly had made some enemies while on the continent back in the day, if any of them can be said to have defied him thrice, maybe they had a child who was no coming to take revenge? Or perhaps it is about someone traveling to Hogsmeade? Or someone approaching the room where the prophecy was made? It can't be that inn-keeper, he was ancient, no chance of his parents ever crossing paths with Tom. What about Severus himself? Nah, his mother was that timid girl. Of course 'approaches' could also refer to a change that is about to come in the near future. Some one being born. Or someone moving to a new station in life from which they can become a threat. Hmm, is Crouch a more serious threat than he thought? His parents were out of Hogwarts by the time Tom arrived there, but he may have interacted with them when he worked for Borgin and Burkes. Maybe they were tough bargainers who refused to sell him items at the price he attempted to set, or tried to drive the price too low when they bought merchandise. Fans wonder why Tom didn't set to kill all pregnant women who were expecting anytime around July-August that year. Maybe by the time he decided that was what the prophecy was about it was past July. Confirmation bias is a strong force, and Tom may have initially interpreted the prophecy in ways that confirmed plans he was already making at the time.
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Of course if Tom really received the end bit then it is less ambiguous: 'The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord will be born as the seventh month dies'. (Nothing about 3 acts of defiance, just a predicted birth-date.) So why did he not go after pregnant women? Did he lack spies at St Mungo's? or perhaps he did, but Alice and Lily use the services of a secret healer? Or perhaps someone Tom had no access to (Poppy?) and so Tom did not find out in time that they were expecting?
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