What Happens in Oxford Stays in Oxford
Somehow two years had passed since my last trip to a casino. To make up for that, I made two blackjack pilgrimages in the past couple months. Here’s some notes.
My first stop was Foxwoods, my preferred joint. In that session, I lost a lot early, but managed to turn it around. In the most memorable hand, I split two fours against a four, then doubled down when I drew a seven on one of the splits. Fortunately, since I now had three times an already substantial initial bet riding on that hand, the dealer busted. It’s always nice when big money hands go according to the mathematical probabilities.
After about 90 minutes I looked down and saw that I’d surpassed my “win” criteria, so I stepped away and drove home. That’s really the most difficult and most important skill in blackjack: having the self-discipline to leave when you’re winning.
A month later, during a trip to Maine, I decided to check out a new casino that has opened in Oxford. It seemed like a nice little joint, until I looked at their rules: no surrender and dealer hits soft 17. Nonetheless, having made the trip, I sat down and played through.
It didn’t take much time for me to plummet to my “lose” criteria. Some of that was bad cards, and some of it was also the unfavorable rules, which bit me a half dozen times.
Will I go back to Oxford? Not unless they change their rules. Foxwoods permits late surrender and stands on soft 17, and I prefer to encourage stores with favorable rules. It’s too bad, though, because Oxford seemed like a nice little place.
So you win one, you lose one, and that’s about par. The betting strategy I’ve developed theoretically allows me to win two thirds of the time, and that has proven out in real-life, where I’ve been up after six of my last ten sessions.
That might sound great, but because I set my loss threshold at twice as much as my win threshold, it winds up being a wash.
In other words, if I win $100 66 percent of the time, and lose $200 33 percent of the time, my long-term result should be a big fat goose egg. Or, if you’re mathematically inclined, let X = my win threshhold: (.66 * X) - (.33 * 2X) = $0
Nonetheless, that’s an above average result when you’re playing against the house, and it felt great to be back at the table again.