Drug war report: Mexican government “cannot eliminate cartels”
On January 9th, Mexican police found 13 bodies near a gas station in Michoacan state. In a report released on Tuesday, consulting agency Stratfor says that the Mexican army can’t stop the cartels. (Photo: Blog del Narco)
Deploying the Mexican army to attack drug cartels will do little to stop Mexico’s drug war, the Texas-based security consulting firm Stratfor said on Tuesday.
The strategy, promoted by Mexican President Felipe Calderon, is only likely to prolong the conflict and spread it around the country, by prompting cartels to fight over new routes and plazas that have not been secured by the limited manpower of the Mexican army, Stratfor said in its annual report on Mexican drug cartels.
The consulting firm says that, even though the army captured some important cartel bosses this year, there is no end in sight to drug violence in Mexico.
“The government cannot eliminate the cartels any more than it can end the drug trade. As long as the smuggling corridors exist, and provide access to so much money, other organizations will inevitably fight to assume control over them,” the report stated.
A highly respected firm that analyzes conflict around the globe, Stratfor estimates that 17,000 Mexicans died from drug-related violence in 2011, surpassing the 2010 death toll of approximately 15,000.
In its detailed report, which recounts the activities of 10 drug cartels around the country, Stratfor concludes that the only (quick) way for drug violence to decrease in Mexico is if a truce is reached between the “hegemonic” Sinaloa and Los Zetas cartels, or if the government allows one of these two groups to dominate the drug trade in Mexico (or just legalize drugs).
However Stratfor says that neither one of these scenarios is likely to happen in 2012, adding that one of the main problems faced by the government, is that the cartels are quickly replenishing their ranks with military veterans and soldiers who desert from the Mexican military.
“Around 27,000 men and women desert the Mexican military every year” the report said, adding that in March 2011, the Mexican army had admitted that it had lost track of 1,680 special forces members over the past decade.
“There are fewer opportunities for veterans in Mexico than in many countries, and understandably many are drawn to a lucrative practice that places value on their skill sets,” Stratfor said.
Much of the violence in Mexico’s drug war arises when cartels battle for control of a city, or a drug trafficking route, that will help them to get their illegal merchandise to the U.S.
The Stratfor reports says that in 2011, a network of alliances emerged between local and national cartels, which “polarized” the drug war roughly in two camps, pitting those who are allied with the Los Zetas gang against those who are allied with the Sinaloa Cartel.
Stratfor argues that, while violence decreased in cities with a heavy military presence like Ciudad Juarez, cities like Veracruz (which recently fired its entire police force) and Monterrey, became new hotspots for the drug war.
The security firm said that with 45,000 troops at its disposal, the Mexican military does not have enough man-power to control all possible drug routes around the country, or to have a significant presence in every city where the cartels decide to set up shop.
Below are some of the main alliances discussed by the Stratfor report, as well as some of the key battlegrounds in Mexico’s Drug war.
Alliances:
Sinaloa Cartel (present in 15 states) dominates Western Mexico
Allies: Knights Templar, Gulf Cartel, Arellano Felix Organization, Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion
Los Zetas (present in 17 states) dominates Eastern Mexico
Allies: La Familia Michoacana, La Resistencia, Cartel Pacifico Sur
Battlegrounds:
Michoacan State: Knights Templar vs Los Zetas and La Familia Michoacan
Guadalajara and Jalisco State: Cartel Jalisco and Sinaloa Cartel vs Los Zetas
Veracruz: Los Zetas vs Cartel Jalisco
Ciudad Juarez: Vicente Carrillo Fuentes Organization (Juarez Cartel) vs Sinaloa Cartel
Monterrey: Los Zetas vs Gulf Cartel
Rio Grande Valley: ‘Civil War’ amongst Gulf Cartel members, Los Metros vs Los Rojos
Other popular drug plazas:
Acapulco: Secured by Sinaloa affiliate La Barredora after battle with Independent Cartel of Acapulco
Tijuana: Run by Arellano Felix Organization on behalf of Sinaloa Cartel
Legalize (some) drugs already, jfc.
America also needs to be more involved in this, but whatever, ignorance is bliss.
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