Calculating McCain's chances of dying
Proof that we are not feeling the McCain/Palin love in Australia, this article appeared on the front page of one of our major newspapers today:
According to two Australian actuarial experts, Senator McCain's age and medical history would make that likely. Using a mathematical formula developed to determine life expectancy, Peter Crump said there was a 35 per cent chance that the 72-year-old senator would not live to see the end of a second term.
"He'd be 80 years old - that's a survival rate of 65 to 70 per cent, and that's before you take his medical history into account," said Mr Crump, an actuary at Portfolio Planning Solutions in Adelaide. Senator McCain had had four melanomas removed since 1993, and suffered degenerative arthritis as a result of injuries sustained in the Vietnam War, so his odds of suffering a debilitating health condition were even higher.
"The probability of him contracting an illness that would render him incapable of carrying out his duties effectively is probably up around 50, 60 per cent," said Sydney actuary Brent Walker. "Let's just say he'd struggle to find an Australian life insurer that would cover him."
According to two Australian actuarial experts, Senator McCain's age and medical history would make that likely. Using a mathematical formula developed to determine life expectancy, Peter Crump said there was a 35 per cent chance that the 72-year-old senator would not live to see the end of a second term.
"He'd be 80 years old - that's a survival rate of 65 to 70 per cent, and that's before you take his medical history into account," said Mr Crump, an actuary at Portfolio Planning Solutions in Adelaide. Senator McCain had had four melanomas removed since 1993, and suffered degenerative arthritis as a result of injuries sustained in the Vietnam War, so his odds of suffering a debilitating health condition were even higher.
"The probability of him contracting an illness that would render him incapable of carrying out his duties effectively is probably up around 50, 60 per cent," said Sydney actuary Brent Walker. "Let's just say he'd struggle to find an Australian life insurer that would cover him."