Larry Sabato's Election Prediction with less than 90 days to go
To be honest, I was worried with the latest batch of polls, and a recent New York Times editorial suggesting considering how poorly most voters view Republicans, Obama's lead in the polls should be significantly higher. My heart sank as well when I looked at the current Electoral College map. But earlier this Summer, Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball" predicte ahuge victory for Democratic candidates, something akin to Ronald Reagan's sweep in 1980.
The Crystal Ball had an update, and it's still good news for Obama supporters:
Despite the evidence of a residual effect of the divisive Democratic nomination contest and resistance to Barack Obama by some white voters in the southern and border states, the overall impression that emerges from this analysis of the 2008 polling data is that Obama is entering the final three months of the campaign with a modest but significant lead over John McCain. He is losing the white vote by a smaller margin than any Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and he is doing better than John Kerry in almost every demographic group, and substantially better among younger voters and Hispanics.
Both the Gallup national tracking poll and recent state polls show Obama leading McCain by a wide margin in the blue states, maintaining a modest lead in the purple states, and narrowing the Republican advantage in the red states. With his own electoral base secure, Obama can afford to shift campaign resources into a number of once solidly Republican states that now appear to be in play such as Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. At a minimum this will force the McCain campaign to devote scarce resources to these states---resources that might otherwise be used in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Less than three months from Election Day, the 2008 presidential race appears to be Barack Obama's to lose.
The full article can be read here.