Let's Go 2010!
Stopping Dem 60 ‘real hard,’ Cornyn fears
The man in charge of electing more Republicans to the Senate said it will be difficult to stop the Democrats from winning a 60-seat majority in 2010.
Sen. John Cornyn (Texas), the new head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), knows he has a difficult road ahead of him.
“That’s going to be real hard, to be honest with you,” Cornyn said of keeping Democrats from reaching 60 seats, adding:
“Everybody who runs could be the potential tipping point to get Democrats to 60. [poster's note: so he admits the Dems are at 59? meaning he admits Franken won? ROFL] We’ve not only got to play defense; we’ve got to claw our way back in 2010. It’ll be a huge challenge.”
So far this cycle, Republicans have been faced with retirements in four swing states, emerging primaries against at least three of their members and a map that, after two cycles of big GOP losses, continues to favor Democrats.
For Cornyn, the man tasked with avoiding sinking below 41 seats, it’s become a very tough job. And it’s clear he’s nervous.
Aside from all the developments so far, the one race Cornyn brought up unprompted in a lengthy interview with The Hill was Texas, where Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) is aiming for the governor’s mansion and could vacate her seat at any time, paving the way for an open, no-primary free-for-all in the Lone Star State.
Indications lately have been that she will remain in her seat, which isn’t up until 2012. But her Texas colleague made it clear Monday that he’s not counting his blessings just yet.
“What I am concerned about is that it will be a special election that will be held perhaps as early as May 2010,” Cornyn said. “I don’t want this to turn into a situation where we elect a Democrat in Texas and further erode our possibilities.”
Democrats hold 58 votes in the Senate - a figure that is likely to hit 59 once the Minnesota Senate race is certified. A special election in Texas could bump the number up to 60.
But with all the potential pitfalls for Cornyn comes a slate of opportunities. He has vulnerable targets in Sens. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and opportunities in open seats or against recent appointees in Colorado, Delaware, Illinois and New York.
In every state except Connecticut, though, Republicans have yet to find a candidate. And in most of them, because of the Democratic lean of the state, the list of viable options is extraordinarily thin.
About the only GOPer who would instantly make a competitive race in Delaware is Rep. Mike Castle. The same is true of Rep. Mark Kirk in Illinois, and perhaps Rep. Pete King and former Gov. George Pataki in New York, both of whom have flirted with a bid.
In Colorado and Nevada, it’s not clear at this point where Republicans will look.
Cornyn said Monday that more possible recruits would enter the public domain in the coming weeks and months and that he remains optimistic about his ability to play offense, but he also acknowledged that recruiting has been a hard sell.
“It was [difficult], early on,” Cornyn said. “I think we had to kind of work our way into it. There are still Republicans who are unhappy with the way Republicans acted when we were in the majority.”
Cornyn also acknowledged the all-or-nothing nature of many of his recruiting targets.
“We’re talking to people in those states, and if they do happen, they’ll be a big deal,” he said.
Cornyn said recruiting would be key to getting supporters enthused about 2010, emphasizing “fresh new faces.”
The problem for him is that many of the faces he’s got running so far are very familiar - Rep. Roy Blunt (Mo.) and former Reps. Rob Portman (Ohio) and Rob Simmons (Conn.), along with two Republican House members running for one Senate seat in Kansas.
When challenged on the freshness of those faces, Cornyn called it a “fair point.” But he noted the potential candidacy of former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and said people like Portman bring so much to the table that they can be refreshing voices for the party.
In a few races, though, Cornyn might end up with a fresh face he wasn’t planning on. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) has landed himself a rematch with former Rep. Pat Toomey in his 2010 primary, and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman (R) is threatening to go after Blunt.
Simmons is set to face at least two primary opponents, including former Ireland Ambassador Tom Foley, and Portman also faces a potential primary with state Auditor Mary Taylor, though he would be heavily favored.
Cornyn said the party is unlikely to take sides in open primaries and likely won’t spend money on any primaries, including Specter’s, but he reserved the right to do either.
“I may be a minority, but I tend to think primaries are not all bad,” he said, before adding with a laugh: “Late primaries can be pretty bad.”
Cornyn said he had met with Steelman and Toomey and would back either if they won their primaries. NRSC staff also met with a potential challenger to Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) “as a courtesy,” Cornyn said, adding that the committee is backing Bunning.
Bunning has caused Cornyn a special kind of heartburn among the incumbents he must defend. The Hall of Fame pitcher has raised little money, and though he has said he will run for a third term, both Cornyn and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) have suggested Bunning may not run.
That has left Bunning openly furious, suggesting that McConnell has a hearing problem and that he could bring legal action against the NRSC if it backed a primary challenger.
On Monday, Cornyn acknowledged his relationship with Bunning has been “a little rocky,” but again seemed to question whether Bunning would run.
“I’m concerned for Sen. Bunning and I wanted to make sure we hold onto that seat,” Cornyn said. “I’ve said all along whether he runs or not is a personal decision that only he can make. Again, my goal is to hold onto that seat.”
Cornyn said he is aiming to help his incumbents avoid the trap into which former Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) fell last year, when she was caught off-guard by a surprisingly strong challenge amid accusations that she rarely returned to her home state.
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Pa. Club for Growth founder calls on Toomey to abandon Senate run
The founder of the Club for Growth's Pennsylvania chapter on Tuesday called for Pat Toomey, the national group's former president, to withdrawal from the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate GOP primary because Toomey cannot win a general election against a Democrat.
Toomey is challenging Sen. Arlen Specter (R) for the second time in 2010.
"Today I am urging Pat to withdraw from the 2010 Senate race because his candidacy threatens to hand over total control of the federal government to the Democrats," William Parker, Club for Growth's founder, wrote in a letter.
Parker endorsed Toomey in his 2004 run, which came two points short of unseating Specter. But in 2010, Parker said Specter is the "only person who can keep that Senate seat in the GOP column."
It is worth noting that the Club for Growth, under new President Chris Chocola, has already endorsed Toomey's Senate campaign.
Parker compared Toomey to former Sen. Rick Santorum, a Republican who lost his bid for re-election in 2006. Toomey is to the right of Santorum, Parker reasons, so he won't be successful in Pennsylvania.
"Pat can't win the general election," Parker wrote. "His lifetime American Conservative Union record of 97 puts him farther to the right than Rick Santorum's 88 percent lifetime rating. Rick was a two-term Senator, ranked number three in the Republican leadership, spent $31 million and lost by 18 points."
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California: Ex-Talk-Show Host Eyes Boxer Challenge
Former radio talk-show host Larry Elder (R) is considering running for Senate in 2010 against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) but is holding his fire while top GOP officials wait for favored candidate Carly Fiorina (R) to make a final decision on whether she’ll run, Republican sources confirmed Monday.
Elder was in Washington, D.C., recently for meetings as part of his research while he weighs making the jump from media professional to politician. One Republican source said Elder is considered a strong second choice to challenge Boxer if Fiorina - the former Hewlett-Packard CEO - declines to take on the uphill task.
“The conventional wisdom is to let her decide, with Larry as a strong second choice,” one GOP source said.
Elder spent 15 years broadcasting on KABC talk radio in Los Angeles, with that run coming to an end late last year. He is an attorney by trade who left a career running a legal head-hunting firm he founded in Cleveland to take to the airwaves in Southern California, where he grew up. Elder also hosted a short-lived nationally syndicated television show at one point.
Fiorina, a very public supporter of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the 2008 presidential race, is the top choice of some top Republicans - both in California and Washington - to take on Boxer. She ranks high for several reasons: She is a woman, has a business background and has the deep pockets necessary to seed what would be a very expensive race.
Boxer closed the first quarter with $4.6 million in cash on hand and has the advantage of running in a strongly Democratic state. State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (R) has already announced his Senate candidacy, but is given long odds by most Republican strategists familiar with California politics.
“I think there are quite a few people who hope Fiorina will jump in,” one California-based GOP strategist said.
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and unrelated to Republicans eating their own (mmm tastes like failure):
Newsom Officially Enters California Governor's Race
San Francisco's Democratic Mayor, Gavin Newsom, on Tuesday officially announced his intention to run for governor of California in 2010.
Newsom, who had been operating an exploratory campaign for the open seat race, used multiple communication formats to declare his intention to run.
"I'm running for Governor because California needs a new direction," Newsom said in a statement. He also reached out to supporters through Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube.
Newsom joins a field crowded with candidates working to distinguish themselves during the race's early stages.
Republican "exploratory" candidate Meg Whitman, former CEO of eBay, announced Tuesday that she expects to raise at least $5 million by June 30. That total would be in addition to $4 million in personal funds Whitman has already contributed, according to her campaign statement.
There is no heir apparent for the seat, currently held by term-limited Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Democrats are eager to take back the office Schwarzenegger first won during the 2003 recall of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis. The state overall continues to trend Democratic and supported Barack Obama with 61 percent last November.
Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi is the only major Democrat, other than Newsom, to have officially announced his candidacy. But Garamendi has publicly indicated he may run to succeed Democratic Rep. Ellen O. Tauscher in California's 10th District. Tauscher was tapped to serve as undersecretary of State for arms control and international security.
Antonio Villaraigosa, mayor of Los Angeles, is regarded as a potential Democratic candidate as is former Gov. Jerry Brown, the current state Attorney General. Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein is widely regarded as the top candidate for the seat but the lawmaker has yet to disclose her decision.
Republican state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner, former Rep. Tom Campbell, and Whitman are among those Republicans vying for their party's nomination. All three Republicans currently operate exploratory committees.
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Links all taken from the invaluable Swing State Project
The first article is a good one because it makes a point about the importance of recruiting in the 2010 race. A good candidate can absolutely make a race, such as Mark Warner giving up his presidential ambitions to run for Senate in VA and winning in a landslide, or probably what would have happened if Sebelius had run in KS. But unless like, Bobby Jindal decides to run in LA, who do the Republicans have? ┐('～`；)┌