The Latest CBO Report on the Stimulative Effect of the House-Senate Recovery Bill
Dear Senator:
At your request, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has prepared a year-by-year
analysis of the economic effects of pending stimulus legislation. This analysis is based
on an average of the effects of two versions of H.R. 1-as passed by the House and as
passed by the Senate. (The economic effects of those two bills are broadly similar.)
Short-Run Effects
The macroeconomic impacts of any economic stimulus program are very uncertain.
Economic theories differ in their predictions about the effectiveness of stimulus.
Furthermore, large fiscal stimulus is rarely attempted, so it is difficult to distinguish...
...blah blah blah, here's the chart:
Total Cost of House-Senate Bill: $789 Billion
WORST CASE SCENARIO
BEST CASE SCENARIO
+1.4% for 2009 = +$199.4 billion
+3.8% for 2009 = +$541.2 billion
+1.1% for 2010 = +$160.5 billion
+3.3% for 2010 = +$481.5 billion
+0.4% for 2011 = +$60 billion
+1.3% for 2011 = +$195 billion
+0.1% for 2012 = +$15.5 billion
+0.7% for 2012 = +$112 billion
+0.0% for 2013 = $0
+0.4% for 2013 = +$68 billion
+$435.4 BILLION
+0.3% for 2014 = +$54.6 billion
-0.1% for 2014 = -$18.2 billion
0% for 2015 = $0
-0.2% for 2015 = -$38 billion
0% for 2016 = $0
-0.2% for 2016 = -$40 billion
0% for 2017 = $0
-0.2% for 2017 = -$42 billion
0% for 2018 = $0
-0.2% for 2018 = -$44 billion
0% for 2019 = $0
-0.2% for 2019 = -$45 billion
$1.5 TRILLION GAIN
-$227.2 BILLION
$208.2 BILLION GAIN
The gap is a freakin' ridiculous. Why even bother estimating at that point? It's like a hurricane forecaster telling you the hurricane is going to hit someplace between the Yucatan Peninsula and Iceland.
source (pdf)
http://www.cbo.gov/
At your request, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has prepared a year-by-year
analysis of the economic effects of pending stimulus legislation. This analysis is based
on an average of the effects of two versions of H.R. 1-as passed by the House and as
passed by the Senate. (The economic effects of those two bills are broadly similar.)
Short-Run Effects
The macroeconomic impacts of any economic stimulus program are very uncertain.
Economic theories differ in their predictions about the effectiveness of stimulus.
Furthermore, large fiscal stimulus is rarely attempted, so it is difficult to distinguish...
...blah blah blah, here's the chart:
Total Cost of House-Senate Bill: $789 Billion
WORST CASE SCENARIO
BEST CASE SCENARIO
+1.4% for 2009 = +$199.4 billion
+3.8% for 2009 = +$541.2 billion
+1.1% for 2010 = +$160.5 billion
+3.3% for 2010 = +$481.5 billion
+0.4% for 2011 = +$60 billion
+1.3% for 2011 = +$195 billion
+0.1% for 2012 = +$15.5 billion
+0.7% for 2012 = +$112 billion
+0.0% for 2013 = $0
+0.4% for 2013 = +$68 billion
+$435.4 BILLION
+0.3% for 2014 = +$54.6 billion
-0.1% for 2014 = -$18.2 billion
0% for 2015 = $0
-0.2% for 2015 = -$38 billion
0% for 2016 = $0
-0.2% for 2016 = -$40 billion
0% for 2017 = $0
-0.2% for 2017 = -$42 billion
0% for 2018 = $0
-0.2% for 2018 = -$44 billion
0% for 2019 = $0
-0.2% for 2019 = -$45 billion
$1.5 TRILLION GAIN
-$227.2 BILLION
$208.2 BILLION GAIN
The gap is a freakin' ridiculous. Why even bother estimating at that point? It's like a hurricane forecaster telling you the hurricane is going to hit someplace between the Yucatan Peninsula and Iceland.
source (pdf)
http://www.cbo.gov/