HAPPY MONDAY!
here's your monday electoral map:
you will notice that AZ and GA have slipped into pink outline category from deep red and pink respectively. polls in AZ put mccain ahead by 2-4 pts...and that's it. polls in GA put mccain ahead by 3-6 pts...and that's it. you will also notice that SD has slipped into the pink from deep red. if you look at the tracking over the past 10 days, mccain has continued to lose ground in red states (these three plus ND and MT) and gain almost nothing in blue and tossup states. the only map-changing gain visible here is the tightening of IN, which was expected. OH however has opened up. mccain's paths to 270 are becoming fewer and fewer and also less and less likely. take a look at nate silver's work:
mccain's probability of a win has shrunk from almost 5% yesterday to 3.3% today.
so while it's still too early to call with the possibility of dirty tricks being pulled in the next 8 days and especially on election day, it IS looking good for obama. especially when he's pulling crowds like this:
in 'swing' states like CO.
you will notice that AZ and GA have slipped into pink outline category from deep red and pink respectively. polls in AZ put mccain ahead by 2-4 pts...and that's it. polls in GA put mccain ahead by 3-6 pts...and that's it. you will also notice that SD has slipped into the pink from deep red. if you look at the tracking over the past 10 days, mccain has continued to lose ground in red states (these three plus ND and MT) and gain almost nothing in blue and tossup states. the only map-changing gain visible here is the tightening of IN, which was expected. OH however has opened up. mccain's paths to 270 are becoming fewer and fewer and also less and less likely. take a look at nate silver's work:
mccain's probability of a win has shrunk from almost 5% yesterday to 3.3% today.
so while it's still too early to call with the possibility of dirty tricks being pulled in the next 8 days and especially on election day, it IS looking good for obama. especially when he's pulling crowds like this:
in 'swing' states like CO.