NEWSWEEK: A History of the 'October Surprise'
With the election just days away, the presidential campaigns hold their collective breaths. Will the Rev. Jeremiah Wright grant some new interview with information harmful to Barack Obama? Will some scandal surface about Sarah Palin’s gubernatorial tenure? Ah, the “October Surprise.” Journalists, campaign advisers and conspiracy theorists fear what lurks in the spooky political season around Halloween, where any event or humiliation could upend the fragile balance of a race or upset long-term political strategy. There has been no shortage of dramatic 11th-hour revelations with the power to transform the outcome. A look back at some of the most memorable late-fall moments.
2006: In late September, Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley resigned amid charges that he sent improper messages to male congressional pages. In office, Foley had been a leader on legislation against pedophilia and child sexual exploitation. The resignation led to opponent Tim Mahoney’s win in a heavily Republican district and was part of an avalanche of Democratic victories nationwide, enabling them to regain a congressional majority. (This fall, Mahoney admitted to “multiple affairs,” and his wife asked for a divorce.) House Speaker Dennis Hastert suggested Democratic operatives-in league with financier George Soros-suppressed knowledge of Foley’s improprieties until just before the election.
2004: On Oct. 29, Al Jazeera broadcast a video from Osama bin Laden officially confirming responsibility for the September 11, 2001, attacks and warning of “another Manhattan” if the United States did not change its Mideast policy. The video was politically timed to influence the U.S. election but if bin Laden hoped to oust the Bush administration his words had the opposite effect-Bush increased his lead to 6 points in the first postvideo poll. John Kerry later blamed the video for his loss in the election. “It changed the entire dynamic of the last five days,” he said.
2000: Five days before the 2000 election, reports surfaced that Republican nominee George W. Bush had been arrested for drunken driving in 1976. Bush confirmed the story, saying that he had been drinking with tennis star John Newcombe in a bar in Kennebunkport, Maine. When stopped, Bush admitted to being under the influence and paid a $150 fine. Though the Gore campaign denied leaking the report, a Maine Democratic lawyer confirmed he was the source of the disclosure. It is unknown if the report hurt Bush with evangelical voters, but it did not cost him eventual victory.
1992: Independent counsel Lawrence Walsh announced the indictment of Iran-Contra player Caspar Weinberger on Oct. 30. The news refreshed memories of the scandal that rocked President Reagan’s second term-and inextricably linked Vice President George H.W. Bush to the affair four days before the election. The news was devastating for the Bush campaign, which had been closing the Democratic candidate Bill Clinton in the final weeks.
1980: A writer for The Washington Post coined the term “October Surprise” to describe the theory that President Jimmy Carter was planning a last-minute deal to release the 52 American hostages held since November 1979. Instead, the Iranians refused to release the hostages until after the election, and then dramatically did so just minutes after Ronald Reagan’s Inauguration on Jan. 20, 1981. A congressional investigation later found no evidence of a back-door deal, but conspiracy theorists maintain that Reagan emissaries met with Iranian officials to promise arms in exchange for the release of the hostages after his election.
1972: National-security adviser Henry Kissinger announced a major breakthrough during negotiations with North Vietnam and declared, “Peace is at hand.” The statement was front-page news nationwide and catapulted incumbent Richard Nixon to a more than 20 point victory over George McGovern. Nixon, who probably did not need the bounce, was angry at Kissinger’s choice of words, telling chief of staff Bob Haldeman, “That sets us up one hell of a hurdle. I wouldn’t have said that. “ The war would not end until 1975.
1968: On Halloween, President Lyndon Johnson announced a bombing halt on all North Vietnamese targets, hoping to influence the election in favor of the Democratic nominee, Vice President Hubert Humphrey. In March, Johnson had announced his intention of bringing the increasingly unpopular war to a close; in the same speech he shocked the nation by saying he would not seek a second term. The war dragged on through the fall, and the fractious Democrats trailed by double digits. Humphrey closed the gap, however, and pressed Johnson for a bombing halt-but by then it was too late.
1960: Martin Luther King Jr. was arrested at an Atlanta sit-in on Oct. 19 and would be imprisoned on various charges for five days. Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy was advised to intervene-first calling King’s wife to offer support, then applying political pressure until King was released. King had deliberately avoiding making political endorsements and didn’t officially back Kennedy, but his father did-switching his allegiance from Nixon in a strong statement of support. Historians say the black vote swung the balance in key battleground states.
1916-1800 here
2006: In late September, Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley resigned amid charges that he sent improper messages to male congressional pages. In office, Foley had been a leader on legislation against pedophilia and child sexual exploitation. The resignation led to opponent Tim Mahoney’s win in a heavily Republican district and was part of an avalanche of Democratic victories nationwide, enabling them to regain a congressional majority. (This fall, Mahoney admitted to “multiple affairs,” and his wife asked for a divorce.) House Speaker Dennis Hastert suggested Democratic operatives-in league with financier George Soros-suppressed knowledge of Foley’s improprieties until just before the election.
2004: On Oct. 29, Al Jazeera broadcast a video from Osama bin Laden officially confirming responsibility for the September 11, 2001, attacks and warning of “another Manhattan” if the United States did not change its Mideast policy. The video was politically timed to influence the U.S. election but if bin Laden hoped to oust the Bush administration his words had the opposite effect-Bush increased his lead to 6 points in the first postvideo poll. John Kerry later blamed the video for his loss in the election. “It changed the entire dynamic of the last five days,” he said.
2000: Five days before the 2000 election, reports surfaced that Republican nominee George W. Bush had been arrested for drunken driving in 1976. Bush confirmed the story, saying that he had been drinking with tennis star John Newcombe in a bar in Kennebunkport, Maine. When stopped, Bush admitted to being under the influence and paid a $150 fine. Though the Gore campaign denied leaking the report, a Maine Democratic lawyer confirmed he was the source of the disclosure. It is unknown if the report hurt Bush with evangelical voters, but it did not cost him eventual victory.
1992: Independent counsel Lawrence Walsh announced the indictment of Iran-Contra player Caspar Weinberger on Oct. 30. The news refreshed memories of the scandal that rocked President Reagan’s second term-and inextricably linked Vice President George H.W. Bush to the affair four days before the election. The news was devastating for the Bush campaign, which had been closing the Democratic candidate Bill Clinton in the final weeks.
1980: A writer for The Washington Post coined the term “October Surprise” to describe the theory that President Jimmy Carter was planning a last-minute deal to release the 52 American hostages held since November 1979. Instead, the Iranians refused to release the hostages until after the election, and then dramatically did so just minutes after Ronald Reagan’s Inauguration on Jan. 20, 1981. A congressional investigation later found no evidence of a back-door deal, but conspiracy theorists maintain that Reagan emissaries met with Iranian officials to promise arms in exchange for the release of the hostages after his election.
1972: National-security adviser Henry Kissinger announced a major breakthrough during negotiations with North Vietnam and declared, “Peace is at hand.” The statement was front-page news nationwide and catapulted incumbent Richard Nixon to a more than 20 point victory over George McGovern. Nixon, who probably did not need the bounce, was angry at Kissinger’s choice of words, telling chief of staff Bob Haldeman, “That sets us up one hell of a hurdle. I wouldn’t have said that. “ The war would not end until 1975.
1968: On Halloween, President Lyndon Johnson announced a bombing halt on all North Vietnamese targets, hoping to influence the election in favor of the Democratic nominee, Vice President Hubert Humphrey. In March, Johnson had announced his intention of bringing the increasingly unpopular war to a close; in the same speech he shocked the nation by saying he would not seek a second term. The war dragged on through the fall, and the fractious Democrats trailed by double digits. Humphrey closed the gap, however, and pressed Johnson for a bombing halt-but by then it was too late.
1960: Martin Luther King Jr. was arrested at an Atlanta sit-in on Oct. 19 and would be imprisoned on various charges for five days. Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy was advised to intervene-first calling King’s wife to offer support, then applying political pressure until King was released. King had deliberately avoiding making political endorsements and didn’t officially back Kennedy, but his father did-switching his allegiance from Nixon in a strong statement of support. Historians say the black vote swung the balance in key battleground states.
1916-1800 here