Wisconsin Primary Post
Wisconsin primary results dicussion post!
Immediately as the polls close Fox (i know, i know) called Bernie as the winner.I will update this post as more detailed results come in.
Democratic polls have been all over the place this week - one week ago FiveThirtyEight had Hillary at an 85% chance of winning, today Bernie is at a 72% chance. Republican polls have stayed pretty stagnant with Cruz currently at an 89% projected chance of winning.
Here are some Exit Polls:
Excitement
In contrast to divisions on the GOP side, about three-quarters of Democratic primary voters are “excited” or “optimistic” about the prospect of a Sanders presidency, as are seven in 10 about a Clinton presidency. Excitement, though, is about twice as high for Sanders than for Clinton.
Honesty
Clinton has had problems with views of her honesty and which are apparent today in Wisconsin. Just six in 10 Wisconsin Democratic voters say she’s honest and trustworthy, vs. about nine in 10 who say so about Sanders. That’s among Sanders’ highest honesty ratings in any primary to date, even approaching his rating in his home state of Vermont.
Race
Whites account for more than eight in 10 Wisconsin Democratic primary voters in preliminary exit poll results, well above the 60 percent they’ve averaged across the 2016 primaries. Nonwhites make up fewer than two in 10 voters, including just one in 10 who are blacks - far below their average levels this year, 40 and 26 percent, respectively.
In previous primaries, whites have voted 50-48 Sanders-Clinton, vs. 72-26 percent Clinton-Sanders among nonwhites. Sanders won whites in recent primaries in North Carolina, Missouri, Illinois and Michigan, though he lost them in Ohio, Florida and Mississippi.
Qualities
Roughly six in 10 voters today say honesty or empathy are most important to their vote; such voters have been more likely to support Sanders (especially honesty voters) in races to date.
Fewer, four in four in 10, call electability or experience most important, voters among whom Clinton’s dominated. Combined, honesty/empathy voters have outnumbered experience/electability voters on average in 2016, with an even larger than usual margin in preliminary exit poll results today.
Ideology
Two-thirds of voters in Wisconsin say they’re liberals, including a quarter who say they’re “very” liberal, both on pace to break records in Wisconsin Democratic primaries back to 1976. In 2008, only 46 were liberal and 16 percent were very liberal. Sanders has done much better so far among liberals than he has among moderates and conservatives. (Only a quarter of Wisconsin voters say they’re moderates, on pace for a record low and well down from 40 percent in 2008).
Partisanship
Mainline Democrats make up seven in 10 Wisconsin voters in these preliminary exit poll results, up from 62 percent in 2008 and on pace for a record in the state. That could provide some help to Clinton, who’s done better with Democrats in primaries to date, while Sanders has prevailed among independents.
Policy fit
Fewer than six in 10 voters say Clinton’s views on the issues are about right, vs. nearly two-thirds who say so of Sanders. That’s a flip of the average of previous primaries, where Clinton’s averaged 64 percent, Sanders 55 percent.
Trade
Trade was a potent issue for Sanders in his surprise win in Michigan and helped him make Missouri and Illinois agonizingly close, though, Clinton turned things around in Ohio. In Wisconsin, more than four in 10 think trade takes away more American jobs, while fewer than four in 10 think it creates more jobs.
Economics
Three-quarters of Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin are worried about the direction of the economy. Nearly four in 10 expect life for the next generation of Americans to be worse than life today, vs. only a third who think it’ll be better. Sanders has done better among those who are worried about the economy in previous primaries.
Realistic policies
More voters think Clinton’s policy proposals are realistic than think the same about Sanders’ policies (three-quarters vs. nearly two-thirds), but that gap is smaller than it’s been in previous primaries (76 vs. 57 percent). It’s similar to recent states - Michigan, Missouri and Illinois - where Sanders has fought closely with Clinton.
Commander in chief
Despite Clinton’s far more extensive foreign policy resume, about as many think Sanders would be a better commander in chief as say so about Clinton.
Source 1
Source 2
Source 3
Source 4
Sorry this post is a mess - I was working on it and didn't expect Bernie to be called as soon as the polls closed so I threw that in last minute!
Edit 9:22p: Maybe take Fox's call with a grain of salt, since no one else has called it (?) and we still have long lines. But, as of now, Bernie and Cruz are leading with this early results.
MSNBC has projected Bernie and Cruz as the winners of tonights primary. [ x]
Edit 10:00p: Ted Cruz is giving his victory speech - Bernie Sanders is up next.
Immediately as the polls close Fox (i know, i know) called Bernie as the winner.I will update this post as more detailed results come in.
Democratic polls have been all over the place this week - one week ago FiveThirtyEight had Hillary at an 85% chance of winning, today Bernie is at a 72% chance. Republican polls have stayed pretty stagnant with Cruz currently at an 89% projected chance of winning.
Here are some Exit Polls:
Excitement
In contrast to divisions on the GOP side, about three-quarters of Democratic primary voters are “excited” or “optimistic” about the prospect of a Sanders presidency, as are seven in 10 about a Clinton presidency. Excitement, though, is about twice as high for Sanders than for Clinton.
Honesty
Clinton has had problems with views of her honesty and which are apparent today in Wisconsin. Just six in 10 Wisconsin Democratic voters say she’s honest and trustworthy, vs. about nine in 10 who say so about Sanders. That’s among Sanders’ highest honesty ratings in any primary to date, even approaching his rating in his home state of Vermont.
Race
Whites account for more than eight in 10 Wisconsin Democratic primary voters in preliminary exit poll results, well above the 60 percent they’ve averaged across the 2016 primaries. Nonwhites make up fewer than two in 10 voters, including just one in 10 who are blacks - far below their average levels this year, 40 and 26 percent, respectively.
In previous primaries, whites have voted 50-48 Sanders-Clinton, vs. 72-26 percent Clinton-Sanders among nonwhites. Sanders won whites in recent primaries in North Carolina, Missouri, Illinois and Michigan, though he lost them in Ohio, Florida and Mississippi.
Qualities
Roughly six in 10 voters today say honesty or empathy are most important to their vote; such voters have been more likely to support Sanders (especially honesty voters) in races to date.
Fewer, four in four in 10, call electability or experience most important, voters among whom Clinton’s dominated. Combined, honesty/empathy voters have outnumbered experience/electability voters on average in 2016, with an even larger than usual margin in preliminary exit poll results today.
Ideology
Two-thirds of voters in Wisconsin say they’re liberals, including a quarter who say they’re “very” liberal, both on pace to break records in Wisconsin Democratic primaries back to 1976. In 2008, only 46 were liberal and 16 percent were very liberal. Sanders has done much better so far among liberals than he has among moderates and conservatives. (Only a quarter of Wisconsin voters say they’re moderates, on pace for a record low and well down from 40 percent in 2008).
Partisanship
Mainline Democrats make up seven in 10 Wisconsin voters in these preliminary exit poll results, up from 62 percent in 2008 and on pace for a record in the state. That could provide some help to Clinton, who’s done better with Democrats in primaries to date, while Sanders has prevailed among independents.
Policy fit
Fewer than six in 10 voters say Clinton’s views on the issues are about right, vs. nearly two-thirds who say so of Sanders. That’s a flip of the average of previous primaries, where Clinton’s averaged 64 percent, Sanders 55 percent.
Trade
Trade was a potent issue for Sanders in his surprise win in Michigan and helped him make Missouri and Illinois agonizingly close, though, Clinton turned things around in Ohio. In Wisconsin, more than four in 10 think trade takes away more American jobs, while fewer than four in 10 think it creates more jobs.
Economics
Three-quarters of Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin are worried about the direction of the economy. Nearly four in 10 expect life for the next generation of Americans to be worse than life today, vs. only a third who think it’ll be better. Sanders has done better among those who are worried about the economy in previous primaries.
Realistic policies
More voters think Clinton’s policy proposals are realistic than think the same about Sanders’ policies (three-quarters vs. nearly two-thirds), but that gap is smaller than it’s been in previous primaries (76 vs. 57 percent). It’s similar to recent states - Michigan, Missouri and Illinois - where Sanders has fought closely with Clinton.
Commander in chief
Despite Clinton’s far more extensive foreign policy resume, about as many think Sanders would be a better commander in chief as say so about Clinton.
Source 1
Source 2
Source 3
Source 4
Sorry this post is a mess - I was working on it and didn't expect Bernie to be called as soon as the polls closed so I threw that in last minute!
Edit 9:22p: Maybe take Fox's call with a grain of salt, since no one else has called it (?) and we still have long lines. But, as of now, Bernie and Cruz are leading with this early results.
MSNBC has projected Bernie and Cruz as the winners of tonights primary. [ x]
Edit 10:00p: Ted Cruz is giving his victory speech - Bernie Sanders is up next.