FiveThirtyEight's (Nate Silver) current projections for upcoming primaries.

Feb 18, 2016 17:26

[percentages are chances of victory]

Feb. 20th
SC Republican Primary:
Trump: 76%
Rubio: 13%
Cruz: 9%
Bush: 1%

NV Democratic Caucus:
Clinton: 75%
Sanders: 25%

Feb. 23rd
NV Republican Caucus:
Trump: 66%
Rubio: 22%
Cruz: 11%

Feb. 27
SC Democratic Primary:
Clinton: greater than 99%
Sanders: less than 1%


March 1
AR Democratic Primary:
Clinton: greater than 99%
Sanders: less than 1%

GA Democratic Primary:
[No forecast because of lack of polling]

GA Republican Primary:
Trump: 41%
Rubio: 36%
Cruz: 17%
Carson: 3%
Kasich: 2%

MA Democratic Primary:
[No forecast because of lack of polling, 1 recent poll shows Sanders 50%, Clinton 42%]

OK Democratic Primary:
Clinton 81%
Sanders: 19%

OK Republican Primary:
[No forecast]

TN Democratic Primary:
Clinton: 99%
Sanders: 1%

TX Democratic Primary:
Clinton: 99%
Sanders: 1%

TX Republican Primary:
[No forecast]

VA Democratic Primary:
Clinton: 98%
Sanders: 2%

VA Republican Primary:
Rubio: 44%
Trump: 37%
Cruz: 14%
Kasich: 3%
Carson: 1%

Source with interactiveness

These are all the "polls-plus" forecasts, which include variables the folks at 538 have factored into their model. If you're not familiar with Nate Silver, he's been the go to stats guy who forecasts elections since the 2008 election.

Reminder that these percentages are CHANCE OF WINNING, not share of the vote.

Also, a chance to use one of the best tags we have.

EDIT: omg sorry the html gods struck me down, fixed

poll analysis, nate silver taught numbers how to fuck, primaries, polls

Previous post Next post
Up