Am Hanivchar, again
There is a popular argument for the veracity of Judaism and it goes something like this.
The Jews have survived for so long in galus. A small nation, a tiny fraction of the world's population, statistically speaking, the Jews should have long ago been assimilated or destroyed. And yet, through all the Crusades, Inquisitions, Pogroms and Holocausts, they still survive and even flourish! All the while, the nations who have persecuted them vanish into the pages of history books. Where is the great Roman Empire? Where are the mighty Greek rulers? All gone, while the Jews survive. Here is another version of the same.
I am sure you have heard this argument in many forms over many years. It is quite appealing emotionally. The Jews are a small nation who defy all odds and survive. This somehow proves that they are indeed the Chosen Nation and that the Torah is true. Presumably because it is impossible for the Jews to have survived under these conditions if God did not will it to be so and the only reason God could will the survival of the Jews is because they are to be a beacon of light for everyone else. Some people like to tack on something about how this also means that Orthodoxy is the way to go because the Conservatives and Reform movements will become completely assimilated over the next few decades.
So this past Shabbos, I was at a table where someone mentioned the Karaite moshavim in Israel. I looked it up a bit and found that the Karaite sect, the small minority who took the Torah literally and discounted the entire Talmud, managed to survive throughout the diaspora just fine and are now doing well in Israel. They apparently have 11 shuls and 30, 000 members, if this article is accurate.
So now let us apply the logic of the previous argument to the Karaim. They are even a smaller fraction of the Jews. They were rejected by Orthodox Judaism itself. They were persecuted right along with the other Jews. And hey, despite all the negative press and extreme adversity, they survived! This must mean that the Karaite way is the Chosen Derech. Right?