Bowl Watch
Note: only bowls and teams worth caring about.
Based on: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/football/ncaa/bowl.schedule/
Before guessing at bowl matchups, of course, we have to pick conference standings.
* denotes BCS berth.
ACC
*1. Va Tech (8-1, 11-1)
2. Miami (6-2, 9-2)
3. Boston College (5-3, 8-3)
4. Georgia Tech (5-3, 7-4)
5. FSU (5-4, 8-4)
6. Clemson (4-4, 7-4)
7. Maryland (4-4, 6-5)
8. North Carolina (4-4, 5-6)
Big East
*1. West Virginia (7-0, 10-1)
2. South Florida (5-2, 7-4, tiebreaker over UL)
3. Louisville (5-2, 9-2)
4. Rutgers (4-3, 7-4)
5. Pittsburgh (4-3, 5-6)
Big Ten
*1. Penn State (7-1, 10-1)
*2. Ohio State (7-1, 9-2)
3. Wisconsin (5-3, 9-3)
4. Michigan (5-3, 7-4)
5. Northwestern (5-3, 7-4)
6. Iowa (5-3, 7-4)
7. Minnesota (4-4, 7-4)
8. Purdue (3-5, 5-6)
Big XII
*1. Texas (9-0, 12-0)
2. Texas Tech (6-2, 9-2)
3. Oklahoma (6-2, 7-4)
4. Colorado (6-3, 8-4)
5. Iowa State (5-3, 8-3)
6. Missouri (4-4, 6-5)
7. Nebraska (3-5, 6-5)
8. Texas A&M (3-5, 5-6)
Pac 10
*1. USC (8-0, 12-0)
2. Oregon (7-1, 10-1)
3. UCLA (6-2, 9-2)
4. Cal (4-4, 7-4)
5. Arizona State (4-4, 6-5)
6. Stanford (4-4, 5-6)
SEC
*1. LSU (8-1, 11-1)
2. Auburn (7-1, 9-2)
3. Alabama (6-2, 9-2)
4. Georgia (6-3, 9-3)
5. South Carolina (5-3, 7-4)
6. Florida (5-3, 7-4)
7. Tennessee (3-5, 5-6)
Others of note:
*Notre Dame: 9-2
TCU, MWC (8-0, 10-1)
Fresno State, WAC (8-0, 10-2)
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BCS Berths and Controversy
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Va Tech, West Virginia, Penn State, Texas, USC, and LSU clinch as conference champions.
Notre Dame clinches with 9 wins plus top 12 BCS standing.
That leaves about a dozen teams who probably feel like they should be going:
* Alabama: 7-2 SEC, 9-2 overall. But they have lost their final two games, which nixes them.
* Fresno State: 8-0 WAC, 10-2 overall. And with how they chellenged USC and barely lost to Oregon, it's tough to discount this team. However, they haven't beaten a single good team all season. Sorry guys.
* Louisville: 5-2 Big East, 9-2 overall. They lost two games in the Big East, end of story.
* Miami: 6-2 ACC, 9-2 overall. They have the talent, but they have a huge flaw in how Wright fares against pressure defenses. The computers already didn't think they were as good as the polls did, so expect them to plummet in the comps following their loss to Ga Tech.
* TCU: 8-0 MWC, 10-1 overall. They haven't played a ranked team all season, and they lost to SMU. They'd probably still be on the outside looking in, even if they had gone undefeated.
* Texas Tech: 6-2 Big XII, 9-2 overall. But their out of conference schedule was soooo easy. And losing to unranked Oklahoma State kills any chance they might have had.
* UCLA: There's no shame in losing to USC. But there is shame in getting blown out by Arizona.
And so, really only three teams have strong arguments:
* Auburn: 7-1 SEC, 9-2 overall. They're a strong team, I think stronger than Notre Dame. After an opening week upset at the hands of Ga Tech (which now doesn't look so bad, as the Jackets went into Miami and upset the Canes as well) then Tigers have finished 9-1, including thrilling wins over Georgia and Alabama, and an overtime loss to LSU.
* Ohio State: 7-1 Big Ten, 9-2 overall. They're an excellent team, I believe they are stronger than some conference champions and perhaps even strong enough to win a rematch with Penn State. Both sides of the ball, and the special teams, are loaded with talent. Coming back from 9 down in the 4th quarter in Ann Arbor is no small task.
* Oregon: 7-1 Pac Ten, 10-1 overall. For the first time since losing Clemens, Oregon played like a true top ten team in their thrashing of Oregon State in the Civil War. Of these three teams, they have the best overall record.
Why Ohio State will make it:
* OSU vs Auburn: Both teams have two losses, including one loss to their once-beaten conference champ... who are #3 and #4 in the polls. However, Ohio State's other loss, to unbeaten Texas, was far more respectable for a BCS Bowl team than Auburn's loss to Georgia Tech. Both teams have won some big games - OSU over Iowa, Michigan, and Northwestern... Auburn over Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. OSU benefits from their nonconference schedule and the fact that since the middle of October they have been winning big. It really sucks that Auburn's going to get shafted for two straight years, but blame the BCS for their deal with Notre Dame, not Ohio State. The Bucks deserve this.
* OSU vs Oregon: This will draw even more outrage than the Auburn decision, since you can argue OSU over Auburn using their losses. Oregon has lost only one game, and it was to the #1 team and defending champs. Though the margin of victory in that game was huge, Ducks supporters will say that MOV doesn't matter, it's just win or lose. (which is half-right... winning is what matters, but MOV can be used to make meaningful comparisons) Ducks supporters will also say that OSU only has a better SOS because of anti-West Coast bias, which is becoming their argument for everything. But really, you can't say for a fact that Oregon doesn't deserve this more than OSU. (same for Auburn, for that matter) But when it comes down to it, Ohio State HAS played a tougher schedule, and they would have gone 10-1 with Oregon's schedule and probably given USC a better game than the Ducks did. Oregon would have lost to Texas and Penn State as well. You can't punish Ohio State because they were willing to schedule a title contender as part of their non-conference schedule. I think the best argument here is that both the pollsters and the computers have OSU ranked more highly, and while the pollsters might be biased the comps aren't, and while the comps may not be able to take nonnumerical factors into account the pollsters can. Both agree that it's Ohio State by a slim margin.
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The Bowls
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NEW ORLEANS BOWL: Sun Belt No. 1 vs. C-USA
Nobody cares.
GMAC BOWL: C-USA No. 2 vs. MAC
Nobody cares.
LAS VEGAS BOWL: MWC vs. Pac-10 No. 5
Nobody cares.
POINSETTA BOWL: MWC vs. at-large
Nobody cares.
FORT WORTH BOWL: C-USA No. 4 vs. Big 12 No. 8
Nobody cares, and Big 12 #8 won't be eligible.
HAWAII BOWL: C-USA No. 3 vs. WAC
Nobody cares.
MOTOR CITY BOWL: MAC vs. Big Ten No. 7
Nobody cares.
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL: ACC No. 4 or 5 vs. Big 12 No. 7
Georgia Tech vs Nebraska - Nebraska is so overrated, and they're not even ranked. GT in a blowout.
INSIGHT BOWL: Pac-10 No. 4 vs. Big East (#4)
Cal vs Rutgers - What a snoozathon. Cal wins.
MPC COMPUTERS BOWL: WAC (#2) vs. ACC No. 6
Boise State vs Clemson - Boise State is not the same as they've been the last few seasons. Clemson's beaten some decent teams, they take this one.
ALAMO BOWL: Big 12 No. 4 vs. Big Ten No. 4
Colorado vs Northwestern - This is a really interesting matchup. It all comes down to how both teams play, as they have shown flashes of brilliance one week and lapses of n00bosity the next. Though Colorado has faced both Miami and Texas (probably twice), I think Northwestern is a little more battle-hardened in a way that is meaningful - they've been in close games vs good teams, and know what it takes to pull it off. Still, if it's a close game, how can you go against the team that has Mason Crosby?
EMERALD BOWL: MWC vs. Pac-10 No. 6
Pac 10 #6 (Stanford) won't be bowl-eligible unless they beat Notre Dame. This gets a Nobody cares even if they are eligible.
HOLIDAY BOWL: Pac-10 No. 2 vs. Big 12 No. 3
Oregon vs Oklahoma - The nation's hopes of silencing the quacking hinge on an underachieving sophomore runningback. I believe, AP...
SUN BOWL: Big Ten No. 5 vs. Pac-10 No. 3
Iowa vs UCLA - This matchup is always hard for the Big 10, with the Pac 10 sending a team two seeds higher. It's made harder by the fact that Iowa is actually the Big Ten's #6 team, but the at-large BCS bid for Ohio State forces everyone else to play up. Iowa has a chance but only if they play really well.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL: Big 12 vs. SEC
Iowa State vs Florida - Cyclones set themselves up well with a win over CU. Florida will be pissed after some losses and take this one to somewhat salvage Meyer's first season.
MUSIC CITY BOWL: SEC No. 6 or 7 (#7) vs. Big Ten No. 6
?? vs Minnesota - SEC #7 is not bowl eligible, and I've already paired up #6.
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL: ACC vs. Big East (#3)
Boston College vs Louisville - Louisville makes up for a disappointing season with a bowl win.
HOUSTON BOWL: Big 12 No. 5 or 6 vs. SEC
Missouri vs South Carolina - Funny seeing the ol' Ball Coach in a smaller bowl. SC wins.
LIBERTY BOWL: C-USA No. 1 vs. TBA
UTEP vs FSU - FSU's been losing to underdogs all season, but UTEP has yet to face a real team. Noles.
COTTON BOWL: Big 12 (#2) vs. SEC (#3)
Texas Tech vs Alabama - Offense vs defense. Defense wins.
OUTBACK BOWL: Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC (#4)
Michigan vs Georgia - This has good matchup written all over it. Though Michigan is hot right now, they'll likely be the underdog going into this game. But UM can win if Henne has a good game like he did against OSU.
GATOR BOWL: ACC No. 2 vs. Big East No. 2
Miami vs South Florida - Rematch, same result. Miami is a blowout.
CAPITAL ONE BOWL: SEC No. 2 vs. Big Ten No. 2
Auburn vs Wisconsin - Auburn may be the best team in the SEC. They win this in a blowout.
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BCS Bowls
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Okay, the BCS picking is a little drawn out. This is how it works.
The default matchups would be:
Rose: Pac 10 vs. Big 10
Fiesta: Big 12 vs. Other
Sugar: SEC vs. Other
Orange: ACC OR Big East vs. Other
Rose Bowl goes first this year and gets #1 and #2. (USC, Texas)
Then, bowls who had to give up their default team pick ONE team. (might have to be unaffiliated)
Fiesta picks NOTE DAME.
The Sugar Bowl automatically gets the SEC champ LSU.
The Orange Bowl picks between ACC and Big East, they pick VA TECH.
Then the three bowls all write their second pick, from remaining teams. In the event of a disagreement, they pick in the order:
Orange, Fiesta, Sugar. The teams remaining are Penn State, Ohio State, West Va.
Orange likely selects PENN STATE.
Fiesta picks OHIO STATE.
Sugar is left with WEST VA.
FIESTA BOWL: BCS vs. BCS
Notre Dame vs Ohio State - I don't think most people want to admit how good of a game this is going to be. Offensively the teams are about even - both have great offenses. Ohio State has a HUGE edge on defense, but Notre Dame has a HUGE edge in coaching. It's going to come down to special teams. The Buckeyes should have the edge here, but while their special teams are better and more talented, they have also been more inconsistent.
The best thing about this matchup is that, though OSU is going to be taking a lot of flak for getting the at-large slot over Auburn and Oregon, the Bucks can prove that, if anyone, it should have been Notre Dame who got left out... if they win.
SUGAR BOWL: BCS vs. BCS
LSU vs West Va - another chapter in the saga to kick the Big Least out of the BCS. LSU would cruise.
ORANGE BOWL: BCS vs. BCS
Va Tech vs Penn State - It's really too bad Miami lost to Ga Tech, because Miami-Penn State is such a rivalry. Nonetheless, this should be an exciting game. The teams are really evenly matched on both sides of the ball. Va Tech has better special teams, but Penn State has an experienced quarterback who is not going to have the kind of game Vick did against Miami.
ROSE BOWL: BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2
USC vs Texas - Expect USC to put up 30 points on Texas's defense. The game hinges on whether that means 31 or 42, and whether USC's defense can stop Vince Young.