Oscar 2024 Predictions & Statitistics
Oscar Predictions: First Look at Possible Winners After Nominations https://t.co/320ujaJgmu
- Variety (@Variety) January 24, 2024
The nominations for the 96th Academy Awards were announced on Tuesday, with Christopher Nolan's biopic 'Oppenheimer' leading the way with a total of 13 nominations. It could possibly be one of the most dominant Oscar winners since 'Slumdog Millionaire' (2008) which took home 8 Oscars.
Statistically speaking, its most formidable challenger could well be Yorgos Lanthimos' sci-fi fantasy 'Poor Things', scoring 11 nominations, and 'Killers of the Flower Moon' with 10 nominations.
Lily Gladstone has already made history by becoming the first Native American nominee ever, in the Lead Actress category (how depressing is that?).
Barbie, the highest grossing film of 2023 scored a total of 8 nominations, including two nominations for Best Original Song and Best Picture.
Justine Triet bagged her first Oscar nomination for Anatomy Of A Fall, making her the only female director to be nominated this year. Only eight women in the history of the Oscars have ever received a Best Director nomination. Jane Campion was nominated for Best Director for a second time in 2022, making her the first and only woman in Oscar's history to be nominated more than once for Best Director.
Martin Scorsese's nomination for Best Director for 'Killers of the Flower Moon' means he has now secured 10 separate Oscar nominations in this category - one more than Steven Spielberg. He was first nominated in 1981 for 'Raging Bull', but has only won Best Director once, for 'The Departed' in 2007. William Wyler holds the current record for most Oscar nominations for Best Director, with 12 nominations. He won for films including 'Ben-Hur' and 'The Best Years of Our Lives'.
This year two British filmmakers have been nominated for Best Director, including Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) and Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest). This is the first time since 2009 that two British directors have been nominated in this category.
2021 saw the most ethnically diverse acting nominations in the history of the Oscar, with non-white actors making up 9 out of the 20 acting nominees. This year in 2024, the total makes 6 out of 20, the same as last year. Two of the five nominees for Best Actor are black: Colman Domingo (Rustin) and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction). There are also two black nominees for Best Supporting Actress: Danielle Brooks (The Colour Purple) and Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers).
So.... who's looking most likely to win?
BEST PICTURE
Oppenheimer - the biopic directed by Christopher Nolan was one of the most high-grossing films of 2023 and it's no secret that the Academy love a world-war slash biopic. A total of 16 biographical dramas have previously won Best Picture at the Oscar's, and Oppenheimer has already secured a win from Critics' Choice Movie Awards, a Golden Globe (for Drama Motion Picture), Online Film Critics Society. It has also been nominated for Best Picture with Screen Actors Guild Awards and BAFTA's.
Runner up - Killers of the Flower Moon.
Surprise - The Holdovers - the comedy has gained momentum recently, picking up Best Comedy or Musical at the Golden Globes.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan - Nolan has surprisingly only been nominated once previously for Dunkirk in 2017. Though many believe this is Nolan's best work yet, he is the strongest contender for his summer biopic blockbuster.
Runner up - Martin Scorsese - Scorsese has bagged a total of 9 nominations and 1 win (The Departed). He missed out on winning at the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice awards, but has also been nominated at the BAFTA's and SAG awards. His reputation also makes him Nolan's biggest contender at the Oscar's this year.
Surprise - Yorgos Lanthimos - Lanthimos has been nominated for Best Director previously for The Favourite, and could be a surprise with sci-fi fantasy Poor Things.
BEST ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone - Lily has shaken up Best Actress category massively, winning at Alliance of Women Film Journalists, Golden Globes (Drama), New York Film Critics Circle. She is also nominated for Best Actress at the BAFTA's, SAG and Satellite Awards.
Runner Up - Emma Stone - Emma has gained much attention for her role in Poor Things, with winning at the Critics' Choice Movie Awards, and Golden Globes (Musical or Comedy). She has previously won an Oscar for 'La La Land'.
Surprise - Sandra Hüller shines in the Palme d'Or winning Anatomy of a Fall, and also has a key supporting role in The Zone of Interest, which has also been nominated for Best Picture alongside Anatomy of A Fall.
BEST ACTOR
Cillian Murphy - Eight of the last 13 Best Actor Oscars have gone to someone playing a real-life figure, and that could certainly well continue with Cillian Murphy who plays J Robert Oppenheimer. It is also his first Oscar nomination, which could likely be his downfall.
Runner Up - Paul Giamatti - Giamatti has emerged as the main competition and may now even have the slight edge (despite not playing a real-life figure). He won the Best Actor - Comedy or Musical award at the Golden Globes and then beat Murphy at the Critics Choice Awards, so is a serious threat to his chances.
Surprise - Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction has acting guild support, so Jeffrey Wright could well be a stunning surprise.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da'Vine Joy Randolph - Da'Vine has been hailed as The Holdover's "beating heart" and has already won a Golden Globe and Critic's Choice Award. She is also nominated for a BAFTA and SAG award.
Runner Up - Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer is the major contender for this year's award season, and Emily Blunt is one of the film's strongest parts.
Surprise - America Ferrara - America was one of the biggest surprise nominations this year, but given Barbie missed out on a nomination for Best Director and Best Actress, the chances are slim in this category but still possible.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr - Downey was last nominated for an Oscar in 2009, losing out to Heath Ledger in the Supporting Actor category (which was also directed by Christopher Nolan). He has stacked wins this year, including a Golden Globe and Critics' Choice award. He is one of the most easily secured wins out of any category.
Runner Up - Ryan Gosling - is he good Kenough? Gosling's nomination has caused quite a stir online, for being Barbie's best chances at securing an Oscar. His contender Downey, might be too good to beat.
Surprise - Robert De Niro - De Niro gives his most acclaimed performance in Killers of the Flower Moon, but momentum has certainly dipped. He's a known contender at the Oscar's, having won 2 for Best Actor and has a total of 9 acting nominations throughout his career.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Holdovers - With Barbie considered as an Adapted Screenplay by the Academy, the Best Original Screenplay award looks more open now for The Holdovers to secure a win. It has gained momentum recently and Payne won the Adapted Screenplay Oscar previously for 2012's The Descendants and 2005's Sideways. 2024 could well be his year again.
Runner Up - Anatomy of a Fall, like The Holdovers, gained 5 Oscar nominations this year, and looks to be the strongest contender, with a strong and well-received screenplay.
Surprise - Past Lives - has gained much praise recently, but doesn't seem to have as much broad support.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Oppenheimer - Recent form suggests that you need to win a Best Screenplay award to win Best Picture (four of the last five have done so) and it seems the Academy isn't getting rid of that trend any time soon. Nolan turns a weighty book into an epic blockbuster that has clearly entertained the masses.
Runner Up - Barbie - The other half of 2023's Barbenheimer, has strong support for its writers Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach. Greta has been previously nominated for an Oscar for Adapted Screenplay for Little Women (2020) and Original Screenplay for Lady Bird (2018).
Surprise - Poor Things.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse won this award five years ago at the 2019 Oscars, and with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse pushing its groundbreaking mix of animation styles and technology even further, then this should be its to lose.
Runner Up - The Boy & The Heron - Hayao Miyazaki's first feature film in a decade, won the Golden Globe and has been very well received across the board.
Surprise - Elemental - the Academy love a Disney animated film.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
The Zone of Interest - If France had chosen to submit Anatomy of a Fall, this category would have been easier to predict by far, with its nomination for Best Picture, Best Actress. After it's surprising snub, it seems The Zone of Interest (from UK and Germany) is the new front runner.
Runner Up - Society of the Snow - Netflix's drama based on the real-life events of the 1972 plane crash in the Andes is a strong contender and has gained much support following its release on the streaming site.
Surprise - Perfect Days.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
What Was I Made For? - Barbie has secured 2 slots in this category, with no doubt the music being the strongest aspect of the film. It seems "I'm Just Ken" and "What Was I Made For?" are each other's biggest opponents. However Billie Eilish's emotional song feels more thematic and relatvie to Barbie, which voters may lean towards.
Runner Up - I'm Just Ken - as above, Barbie's 2 songs are each other's biggest contenders but may just miss the mark as the more fun, goofy song of the two. Voters may not favour this one as much as Billie Eilish's slow, heart-felt song.
Surprise - The Fire Inside - Diane Warren? AGAIN? Diane Warren has the most nominations without a win now at 15, and will probably extend that (with what is a remarkable 7th consecutive nomination).
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator - Two movies with budgets under $100 million have a real chance at winning Best Visual Effects, as both The Creator and Godzilla Minus One have incredible work in this category. Both have been highly praised for their VFX, and would be impressive even if their budgets had been much larger.
Runner Up - Godzilla Minus One.
Surprise - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 - following a phase of comic-book fatigue, GOTG3 won a lot of film fans back with it's emotional last installment of the Guardians trilogy. It could well surprise all and take this one home.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie - the sheer volume of iconic costumes worn in this film, it wouldn't be a surprise if Brit Jacqueline Durran took home the Oscar. She has a total of 9 Oscar nominations in Costume Design now and two wins for Anna Karenina and Little Women.
Runner Up - Poor Things - Poor Things' costumes are a mix of period and fantasy, both areas that play well in this category, and look incredible. But it may just miss out to Barbie's popping iconic colours.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Oppenheimer - Hoyte van Hoytema's work on Oppenheimer is perhaps the showiest of the bunch, thanks to its use of IMAX cameras and shifts between color and black and white, but each of these movies, it almost goes without saying, looks stunning. This is Hoyte's second Oscar nomination, the first for Cinematography in Nolan's Dunkirk.
Runner Up - Killers of the Flower Moon - you could argue KOTFM's landscape is a character itself and Scorsese and Rodrigo Prieto have used the cinematography incredibly well in this intense drama.
What are your thoughts? Who do you think is bagging an Oscar this year?
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