2024 Oscar Predictions: The Frontrunners and Their Challengers

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The dirty little secret about the Oscar game is that there is no such thing as a “frontrunner.” Oh, we pretend there is. We imagine it. We predict it. We manifest it. But it actually doesn’t exist.


Best Picture - Frontrunners:
Oppenheimer - Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr.
Barbie - Ryan Gosling, Margot Robbie
Poor Things - Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo
Killers of the Flower Moon - Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, Lily Gladstone
The Holdovers - Paul Giamatti, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dominic Sessa

Challengers:
Maestro - Bradley Cooper, Carey Mulligan
American Fiction - Jeffrey Wright
The Boys in the Boat - Joel Edgerton
Past Lives - Greta Lee
Anatomy of a Fall - Sandra Huller
The Color Purple - Fantasia Barrino
Rustin - Colman Domingo
The Zone of Interest - Sandra Huller
Napoleon - Joaquin Phoenix
The Bikeriders - Jodie Comer

Best Actor - Frontrunners
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Challengers:
Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon
Michael Fassbender, The Killer

Best Actress - Frontrunners
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Annette Bening, Nyad
Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Challengers:
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Natalie Portman, May December
Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Helen Mirren, Golda
Aunanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Greta Lee, Past Lives

The rest at the source