Ну так і Потрніков, до речі, на тому ж наголошує: що Росія *начебто* вже Украïною подавилася і повністю перейшла на план розколу Украïни: або ривком, інтервенцією, збр. конфліктом, або те ж саме, тільки уповільнено і поки що латентно - через федералізацію із плацдармом в Харкові і всім тим же самим тільки в майбутньому
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Donetsk and Lugansk don't want federation because Russia will call the shots and there will be asset redistribution. In case of federation, Donetsk will be more dangerous for Yanuk than L'viv. He knows it too.
Re: A1g0rithmext_2309368February 8 2014, 12:05:25 UTC
To what extent is Yanukovich independent? If he is smart enough to realize that federalization of Ukraine with the subsequent economic isolation from Kiev and Russians' bossing around in Donetsk and Lugansk, what are his next steps are likely to be?
Re: A1g0rithmext_2349611February 8 2014, 12:37:43 UTC
Yanukovitch doesn't micromanage, but he does call the shots. Otherwise, Putin would be meeting with someone else. In fact, he's made all three, US, EU and Russia very unhappy, so that takes a great deal of independence. Unfortunately for him, he's playing checkers with chess pieces.
Re: A1g0rithmext_2309368February 8 2014, 13:14:05 UTC
Thank you very much for your answers. Can you please also comment on these: - SBU has stopped investigation on the "seizure of state power" case - SBU has started criminal proceedings in connection with an attempt of Crimean deputies to ask for Russia's protection in Crimea
Re: A1g0rithmext_2349611February 8 2014, 13:25:07 UTC
I wouldn't advise to read too much into it. Second looks like a shot across the bow of "federalists" and combined with first, - Putin. Warning them off too much independent initiative.
Re: A1g0rithmagitpopeFebruary 8 2014, 13:02:30 UTC
Besides, don't forget the local Donetsk PoR establishment. They follow Yanuk, but if it becomes vital for them, I think they may act independently (on the federalisation):
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И не просто могут - а реально НЕ понимают.
Вся верхушка ЛПР в полном составе.
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"с оплотом в Харькове"
How apropos... Google Translate has significantly improved :)
American strategy can be summed up thus:
- announce red lines for Ukrainian government, preventing them from use of force
- allow Russia to destabilize the country, weakening Ukr government, but not enough to cause collapse
- control all opposition forces to prevent armed conflict
- put pressure for a diplomatic solution (excluding Russia) up until the point of inflection
Lack of EU sanctions means that this point of inflection is MUCH closer to collapse/armed struggle than that with which US is comfortable.
Two ways to neutralize the strategy:
- Russia organizing a mass-casualty event in Ukraine (likely prevented at high level)
- Yanukovitch crossing red lines (somewhat unlikely to happen if it hasn't yet)
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http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/02/8/7013199/
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- SBU has stopped investigation on the "seizure of state power" case
- SBU has started criminal proceedings in connection with an attempt of Crimean deputies to ask for Russia's protection in Crimea
SBU is a top newsmaker today. What does it mean?
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did you check this?
http://www.06252.in.ua/news/470461
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