Alla, if your statements reflect your actual view, then you seem to misapprehend the US role in Ukraine right now.
Several conclusions from observation of their actions/statements:
- US embassy actively involved in maintaining unity among opposition leaders as part of a much wide strategy.
- Based on some hints in leaked conversation, Yats is only considered for temporary government and Klitschko as a backup plan for future presidency/PM (depending on constitution). The main plan is likely outside of the trinity - Poroshenko? Opp realize this and seem to be okay with their ratings tanking.
- Praviy Sektor is quite likely synchronized with US strategy. Their deadline came and went, despite retaliation being apparently beneficial. Conclusion: they are controlled by or at least listen to an actor who determined that it wasn't optimal time to play that card. Some of their other actions suggest that this actor is not Russia.
Unequivocal statements by US ambassador as well as ignoring EU position entirely suggests that US has already made the decision to keep Ukraine. US wants Ukraine as a unified country with a strong national character and improving quality of life as a stronghold for future plans in Russia. It's easier done if there are no significant casualties, hence the painfully slow progress and stress on non-violent protests.
Russia is bluffing and hopes that US folds under pressure from EU (Germany), letting Ukraine to federilze. Leaked conversation suggests it isn't likely. Russian mission went from taking Ukraine as one big piece, to letting a few Western provinces go, to letting Kiev go. They are now fighting to keep as much of central Ukraine as possible with Kharkiv being the stronghold. Particularly important is Odessa to advance the border directly to EU and rob Western Ukraine of a port.
If US succeeds in their gambit, then Russia will get nothing, not even Crimea.
"Their deadline came and went, despite retaliation being apparently beneficial. Conclusion: they are controlled by or at least listen to an actor who determined that it wasn't optimal time to play that card"
Interesting.
Here in comments, we've been trying to figure out who's behind the Pr.Sec. and what are their goals. We all came to a conclusion that this is an internal Ukrainian actor pursuing its own goals, and even probably SBU (Alla's suggestion) - a part of the SBU going rogue (my suggestion).
But you highlight an interesting fact that at the very beginning made me think (+ some signs of Poroshenko's involvement) of an external actor (and not Russia). Now, it may mean that the internal Ukr. actor behind the Pr.Sec. is adapting its game, letting the US act when they act : mostly because only the US can weaken Kremlin, in my opinion.
It sees that initially PS was a project by an internal actor. Poroshenko is quite likely given his role in supporting Automaidan and coordinating it with US Embassy. Lack of modern mass-media strategy by the group suggests lack of initial American involvement, but doesn't preclude intelligence contacts. However, that has likely changed after Jan 22. Note the inclusive tone and insistence against antisemitism (clever use of Bandera's 3 rules) in subsequent media appearances.
Re: A1g0rithmagitpopeFebruary 8 2014, 11:50:53 UTC
The starting point for all of us was that : the groups that form PS are always inflitrated by the intelligence, by SBU in our case.
Alla can explain what was her reasoning, I can only explain mine.
My reasoning was mainly based on the discourse analysis.
I outlined a complex of specific vocabulary elements, arguments and ideas, promoted by the official and informal communication of PS, a specific pattern all these elements form (the way the form sequences, their frequency, the context in which this or that element or its combination is used).
Then I assumed that those who have the same patterns are likely to be in(or close), even if they don't have any formal connection to PS.
Then I tried to find out where I could find the same patterns outside PS/PS sympathisers (among those who produce the public discourse). As to PS sympathisers, I split them into two groups : those who recreate the same patterns and those who don't (and just pick some specific elements under their influence without forming the stable/complete pattern that PS airs)
When I localized a several number of those who are not formally connected to PS, but produce a public discourse recreating their specific pattern regularly, I started to follow their public communication. Besides, a certain number of them regularly cite other sources/people, recreating the same pattern, which discloses a part of the network close to the actor behind PS/or in the game. In a number of cases, these people or their texts don't even mention PS anymore (or only marginally), but they perfectly recreate the patterns (which only confirms that PS is a tool someone's using behind).
Then I just found out that an impressivly important proportion of these people are in this or that way connected to SBU (close to it, close to someone who's in it, was in it in the past, etc.). There was even a peak of the activity where a several number of personalities that occupied the important posts in the Ukr. intelligence/army made their public synchronised coming out with this specific pattern (it was before the announcement of a possible financial aid to the new Ukr. gvt).
All of it makes me think a kind of rogue "group" within SBU is in.
Besides, a big number of texts recreating the pattern are rather "dry" stylistically, well structured, a high frequency of neutral and analytical terms, very "intelligence"-like style.
Well, I omit all other arguments that fit into this hypothesis, I just described the core reasoning. I omit Alla's arguments. I actually stay open to any other agruments and ideas.
P.S. Anyway, this hypothesis doesn't exclude any kind of cooperation with US. You just assume the US are somehow letting sometimes those behind PS act, I assume the opposite: those behind PS are letting the US act (which means they are far more independent than you suppose) A closer cooperation/coordination stays a very interesting open question.
Re: A1g0rithm
anonymous
February 8 2014, 12:30:12 UTC
Interesting theory. ex-SBU (and not only ex-) is certainly involved, though without the benefit of monitoring social nets at that level, it's hard for me to evaluate how much.
As to who is letting whom act:
- There was a curious announcement after events on Jan 23 about US sanctions to be expanded, potentially including some people in opposition. Things have significantly calmed down after that.
- Sudden appearance of PS in the media after 22 with interviews by Yarosh. Focus on tolerance and inclusiveness going so far as to accuse Svoboda of racism. There is a talking point against antisemitism in their media appearances, a somewhat American concept (a talking point that is).
- Announcement of an ultimatum and then not following through with it - potentially very damaging for recruitment, internal support. It's also a template that US frequently uses for gentle power projection - letting allies announce and then preempting to show who's in charge.
Of course, this is all circumstantial. Moreover, should PS feel that US is backstabbing them, they will break out and act autonomously. It's quite likely that the relationship needs frequent reassurance from US. This opens interesting possibilities about the source of the phone call leak ;)
Lots of Youtube views, though he appears to be a military dilettante and good con artist. Could be just attention seeker. But, on the other hand, if he's gathering influence then to what end and on whose orders.
Re: A1g0rithmagitpopeFebruary 8 2014, 12:57:23 UTC
"Of course, this is all circumstantial" ---
I believe so. And there are many intersting possibilities and scenarios. Open question.
"There is a talking point against antisemitism in their media appearances, a somewhat American concept (a talking point that is)" ---
If PS is only a tool they grabbed, it's logical, with or without US: those who are behind them seem to be clever and yeah, very inclusive (that's what I think judging from the texts recreating the pattern: they try to involve litterally every single person).
"Announcement of an ultimatum and then not following through with it - potentially very damaging for recruitment, internal support" ---
I saw it. Shows once again, PS is a mere tool.
"But, on the other hand, if he's gathering influence then to what end and on whose orders" ---
We are all intrigued about him. He is linked to intelligence, but we still didn't know on which side : Russia, SBU or rogue SBU.
"This opens interesting possibilities about the source of the phone call leak ;)" --
Re: АрестовичagitpopeFebruary 8 2014, 14:00:37 UTC
Що ще раз показує, що в нас дійсно історичний процес. Під час історичних процесів, які тільки мутні екзоти не спливають, це константа, мені здається :))))
Re: АрестовичagitpopeFebruary 8 2014, 14:13:35 UTC
Я, до речі, за ним тому і не стежу і не аналізую: занадто мутно (хоча я і половину того, що в статті не знала), а таких аналізувати сенсу нема. Хоча я дійсно була впевнена про розвідку (через Корча).
Re: АрестовичagitpopeFebruary 8 2014, 16:01:18 UTC
Згадалися дві парелелі: 1917 - таких екзотів було сила силенна, мало не в кожному місті, ми просто найвідоміших знаємо. І діамантове намисто Маріï-Антуанетти: і в той час, і в історіографіï на що тільки фокус не ставили - і на ненажерливість Маріï-Антуанетти, і на те, що невинних ув'язнали і під суд, тобто на саму судову систему, і на...кхе-кхе...еквівалент того, що ми зараз називаємо корупцією, а насправді там вся справа, ïï генеза, розвиток, фінал, все крутилося довкола аферистів і екзотів, "мутних".
Очевидно, що часи історичних зламів якось стимулюють появу і діяльність авантюристів, аферистів, провокаторів, просто екзотів і маргіналів - це ïх стихія в чистому вигляді. В нас вони, правда, з 90-х ще нікуди не пішли, просто частина заснула на кілька років (згадалося, що хтось писав скількись там місяців назад, що Біле братство ожило - от він, справжній знак ;) ), що і означає, що історичних злам ожив і продовжується.
П.С. А якщо серйозно, то в такі часи не можна довіряти нікому, краще довіряти тим, кого знаєш/читаєш/довіряєш вже хоча б кілька років і постійно робити в голові перевірку "Може, я чогось тоді не побачив?". Часи такі :))
Я Пастернака не читала, но осуждаюext_2304673February 9 2014, 14:18:58 UTC
Вы смешны в своем желании казаться умной и всепонимающей. Вы легко подхватываете сплетни в виде версий и чем она безумнее - тем больше вызывает доверия. Я не поленился и просмотрел ссылки. Еще до того, как Янукович стал президентом, Арестович публично предлагал ему уйти в отставку - см 3 мин 20 сек http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DclZbZnL1xA Это - поступок. А вы тут об историческом процессе и грязной пене. Вы сами сейчас где? Что вы сделали для Украины?Вы же не двигатель, а сторонний наблюдатель процесса. Какое моральное право Вы имеете осуждать Автомайдан? Правый Сектор? Спильна Справа? Оппозицию? Кого я еще не перечислил, кому вы доверяете и кто поступает сейчас в историческом процессе "правильно" с вашей точки зрения? А душа и суть человек есть то - что он думает о других. Думал, что 37 год канул в лету, а оказывается - хренушки. И если люди так легко ведутся на голословные обвинения и штампы, значит думать они не научились, значит они всего-навсего - марионетки в руках Кукловодов. Лучше раз обмануться в человеке, чем раз подозревать невиновного.
Re: Я Пастернака не читала, но осуждаю
anonymous
February 10 2014, 09:15:15 UTC
Не смешите мои тапочки!
Это же надо - решить, что в нашем теятре буратины самостоятельные :)
Да хоть бы взять ваш ролик с ютуба - вот он, герой Алексей Арестович, возглавляющий несогласных на Майдане, призывает злого президента и весь-весь украинский политикум идти в отставку. Дескать, вот мы уже тут, готовы взять, как говорят, бразды. И тут - следующий кадр - о чудо! - рояль в кустах - Дмитро Корчинский! Это ж надо какое чистое совпадение! На Майдане Арестович, в студии Корчинский :)
Вы такой наивный, что ни разу не видите тут режиссуры?! И, что характерно, и кукловодов-то мы знаем - отставившийся Левочкин и преставившийся Левенец (да гореть ему в аду за всю эту поганую кашу под названием "украинский политикум"!)
Роль США, думаю, что я понимаю как надо. Я прекрасно понимаю, что США - это основной геополитический игрок. Но вот только играет он сейчас не в нашу пользу. Как сказали мне россияне: Обама был нам послан Богом. Россия бы никогда так не дергалась, если бы Путин не был уверен, что ему позволено это. Я, скажем так, догадываюсь, что США и Россия зашли с нами в тупик и решили, что нет другого выхода, чем выпустить Тимошенко и поставить на нее. Кстати, и Сурков подтвердил мои догадки. Так что весь остальной театр - это массовка. И Порошенко, скорее всего, тоже. Сурков не зря сказал, что слишком рано засветился Порошенко. Юля поэтому и против конституционной реформы. Но! Это не входит в планы других игроков. Я так думаю. Слишком многого хочет Юля. Поэтому возможны варианты всякие. А Юля- это скорее элемент давления на Яныка со стороны Кремля. Порошенко? Какой Порошенко? У него что рейтинг есть? Он выше чем у Кличко? Или я не в курсе как ему его в штабе накручивают? Это блеф, а не рейтинги. Фата-Моргана, куда не кинься, всюду мираж. Вы же не надеялись на такое сопротивление народа, какое получили в Украине. Это же Вы теперь только думаете, что с нами делать дальше, а до этого кто о нас думал? Путин с Обамой все за всех порешают. Комбинаторы. С Украиной так нельзя. Самое смешное, что чем больше мы сопротивляемся, тем меньше куда-то хотим.
Re: Gambit
anonymous
February 8 2014, 22:29:48 UTC
There has been no agreement between US and Russia on this and couldn't have been. I wouldn't put it past Obama to make such an agreement - he's a tactician, not a strategist (to put it diplomatically). However, there are enough people in US establishment who would see the short-sighted lunacy of such an action. The situation in Ukraine is similar to the one that happened in Georgia - Germany + France were against accepting it into NATO and US didn't care enough to push it through until it was too late.
There has been US support for cultivation of nationalist idea + civic position through NGO and media grants for a while now. The strategy was similar to the one used in Lebanon (though for objective reasons, it wasn't very successful there). As for people coming out forcefully against Yanuk regime and Russian interference, you are correct, it wasn't counted on. Had it not happened, there would've been a behind the scenes agreement with Putin (not unlike what Germany did). Would Ukraine deserve any better though, had people not came out after Nov 30?
You can't be serious talking about rating. what do you think the rating would be when temporary government has to push through unpopular reforms and Poroshenko repairs Kiev in 24 hours? Such populist nonsense plays well in the Eastern Ukraine. As for Klitschko, god forbid he will be the one to come in after temporary government. Given people in UDAR, it will be Yuschenko 2.0. Their latest actions in Kiev Rada are a testament to that.
Alla, if your statements reflect your actual view, then you seem to misapprehend the US role in Ukraine right now.
Several conclusions from observation of their actions/statements:
- US embassy actively involved in maintaining unity among opposition leaders as part of a much wide strategy.
- Based on some hints in leaked conversation, Yats is only considered for temporary government and Klitschko as a backup plan for future presidency/PM (depending on constitution). The main plan is likely outside of the trinity - Poroshenko? Opp realize this and seem to be okay with their ratings tanking.
- Praviy Sektor is quite likely synchronized with US strategy. Their deadline came and went, despite retaliation being apparently beneficial. Conclusion: they are controlled by or at least listen to an actor who determined that it wasn't optimal time to play that card. Some of their other actions suggest that this actor is not Russia.
Unequivocal statements by US ambassador as well as ignoring EU position entirely suggests that US has already made the decision to keep Ukraine. US wants Ukraine as a unified country with a strong national character and improving quality of life as a stronghold for future plans in Russia. It's easier done if there are no significant casualties, hence the painfully slow progress and stress on non-violent protests.
Russia is bluffing and hopes that US folds under pressure from EU (Germany), letting Ukraine to federilze. Leaked conversation suggests it isn't likely. Russian mission went from taking Ukraine as one big piece, to letting a few Western provinces go, to letting Kiev go. They are now fighting to keep as much of central Ukraine as possible with Kharkiv being the stronghold. Particularly important is Odessa to advance the border directly to EU and rob Western Ukraine of a port.
If US succeeds in their gambit, then Russia will get nothing, not even Crimea.
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Interesting.
Here in comments, we've been trying to figure out who's behind the Pr.Sec. and what are their goals. We all came to a conclusion that this is an internal Ukrainian actor pursuing its own goals, and even probably SBU (Alla's suggestion) - a part of the SBU going rogue (my suggestion).
But you highlight an interesting fact that at the very beginning made me think (+ some signs of Poroshenko's involvement) of an external actor (and not Russia). Now, it may mean that the internal Ukr. actor behind the Pr.Sec. is adapting its game, letting the US act when they act : mostly because only the US can weaken Kremlin, in my opinion.
Interesting, anyway.
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Alla can explain what was her reasoning, I can only explain mine.
My reasoning was mainly based on the discourse analysis.
I outlined a complex of specific vocabulary elements, arguments and ideas, promoted by the official and informal communication of PS, a specific pattern all these elements form (the way the form sequences, their frequency, the context in which this or that element or its combination is used).
Then I assumed that those who have the same patterns are likely to be in(or close), even if they don't have any formal connection to PS.
Then I tried to find out where I could find the same patterns outside PS/PS sympathisers (among those who produce the public discourse). As to PS sympathisers, I split them into two groups : those who recreate the same patterns and those who don't (and just pick some specific elements under their influence without forming the stable/complete pattern that PS airs)
When I localized a several number of those who are not formally connected to PS, but produce a public discourse recreating their specific pattern regularly, I started to follow their public communication. Besides, a certain number of them regularly cite other sources/people, recreating the same pattern, which discloses a part of the network close to the actor behind PS/or in the game. In a number of cases, these people or their texts don't even mention PS anymore (or only marginally), but they perfectly recreate the patterns (which only confirms that PS is a tool someone's using behind).
Then I just found out that an impressivly important proportion of these people are in this or that way connected to SBU (close to it, close to someone who's in it, was in it in the past, etc.). There was even a peak of the activity where a several number of personalities that occupied the important posts in the Ukr. intelligence/army made their public synchronised coming out with this specific pattern (it was before the announcement of a possible financial aid to the new Ukr. gvt).
All of it makes me think a kind of rogue "group" within SBU is in.
Besides, a big number of texts recreating the pattern are rather "dry" stylistically, well structured, a high frequency of neutral and analytical terms, very "intelligence"-like style.
Well, I omit all other arguments that fit into this hypothesis, I just described the core reasoning. I omit Alla's arguments. I actually stay open to any other agruments and ideas.
P.S. Anyway, this hypothesis doesn't exclude any kind of cooperation with US. You just assume the US are somehow letting sometimes those behind PS act, I assume the opposite: those behind PS are letting the US act (which means they are far more independent than you suppose)
A closer cooperation/coordination stays a very interesting open question.
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As to who is letting whom act:
- There was a curious announcement after events on Jan 23 about US sanctions to be expanded, potentially including some people in opposition. Things have significantly calmed down after that.
- Sudden appearance of PS in the media after 22 with interviews by Yarosh. Focus on tolerance and inclusiveness going so far as to accuse Svoboda of racism. There is a talking point against antisemitism in their media appearances, a somewhat American concept (a talking point that is).
- Announcement of an ultimatum and then not following through with it - potentially very damaging for recruitment, internal support. It's also a template that US frequently uses for gentle power projection - letting allies announce and then preempting to show who's in charge.
Of course, this is all circumstantial. Moreover, should PS feel that US is backstabbing them, they will break out and act autonomously. It's quite likely that the relationship needs frequent reassurance from US. This opens interesting possibilities about the source of the phone call leak ;)
Now, one character I'm really curious about is this guy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXf0SSTo5TY
Lots of Youtube views, though he appears to be a military dilettante and good con artist. Could be just attention seeker. But, on the other hand, if he's gathering influence then to what end and on whose orders.
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---
I believe so. And there are many intersting possibilities and scenarios. Open question.
"There is a talking point against antisemitism in their media appearances, a somewhat American concept (a talking point that is)"
---
If PS is only a tool they grabbed, it's logical, with or without US: those who are behind them seem to be clever and yeah, very inclusive (that's what I think judging from the texts recreating the pattern: they try to involve litterally every single person).
"Announcement of an ultimatum and then not following through with it - potentially very damaging for recruitment, internal support"
---
I saw it. Shows once again, PS is a mere tool.
"But, on the other hand, if he's gathering influence then to what end and on whose orders"
---
We are all intrigued about him. He is linked to intelligence, but we still didn't know on which side : Russia, SBU or rogue SBU.
"This opens interesting possibilities about the source of the phone call leak ;)"
--
Oh...
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http://uainfo.org/yandex/266504-lzhec-troll-devstvennik-ili-biografiya-voennogo-eksperta-arestovicha.html
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А вот, что он сам говорит о своих отношениях с Корчинским:
По поводу Дмитрия Корчинского
Джерело: fakty.ictv.ua http://fakty.ictv.ua/ru/index/read-blog/id/995
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Очевидно, що часи історичних зламів якось стимулюють появу і діяльність авантюристів, аферистів, провокаторів, просто екзотів і маргіналів - це ïх стихія в чистому вигляді. В нас вони, правда, з 90-х ще нікуди не пішли, просто частина заснула на кілька років (згадалося, що хтось писав скількись там місяців назад, що Біле братство ожило - от він, справжній знак ;) ), що і означає, що історичних злам ожив і продовжується.
П.С. А якщо серйозно, то в такі часи не можна довіряти нікому, краще довіряти тим, кого знаєш/читаєш/довіряєш вже хоча б кілька років і постійно робити в голові перевірку "Може, я чогось тоді не побачив?". Часи такі :))
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Это - поступок. А вы тут об историческом процессе и грязной пене. Вы сами сейчас где? Что вы сделали для Украины?Вы же не двигатель, а сторонний наблюдатель процесса. Какое моральное право Вы имеете осуждать Автомайдан? Правый Сектор? Спильна Справа? Оппозицию? Кого я еще не перечислил, кому вы доверяете и кто поступает сейчас в историческом процессе "правильно" с вашей точки зрения?
А душа и суть человек есть то - что он думает о других. Думал, что 37 год канул в лету, а оказывается - хренушки. И если люди так легко ведутся на голословные обвинения и штампы, значит думать они не научились, значит они всего-навсего - марионетки в руках Кукловодов. Лучше раз обмануться в человеке, чем раз подозревать невиновного.
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Это же надо - решить, что в нашем теятре буратины самостоятельные :)
Да хоть бы взять ваш ролик с ютуба - вот он, герой Алексей Арестович, возглавляющий несогласных на Майдане, призывает злого президента и весь-весь украинский политикум идти в отставку. Дескать, вот мы уже тут, готовы взять, как говорят, бразды. И тут - следующий кадр - о чудо! - рояль в кустах - Дмитро Корчинский! Это ж надо какое чистое совпадение! На Майдане Арестович, в студии Корчинский :)
Вы такой наивный, что ни разу не видите тут режиссуры?! И, что характерно, и кукловодов-то мы знаем - отставившийся Левочкин и преставившийся Левенец (да гореть ему в аду за всю эту поганую кашу под названием "украинский политикум"!)
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There has been US support for cultivation of nationalist idea + civic position through NGO and media grants for a while now. The strategy was similar to the one used in Lebanon (though for objective reasons, it wasn't very successful there). As for people coming out forcefully against Yanuk regime and Russian interference, you are correct, it wasn't counted on. Had it not happened, there would've been a behind the scenes agreement with Putin (not unlike what Germany did). Would Ukraine deserve any better though, had people not came out after Nov 30?
You can't be serious talking about rating. what do you think the rating would be when temporary government has to push through unpopular reforms and Poroshenko repairs Kiev in 24 hours? Such populist nonsense plays well in the Eastern Ukraine. As for Klitschko, god forbid he will be the one to come in after temporary government. Given people in UDAR, it will be Yuschenko 2.0. Their latest actions in Kiev Rada are a testament to that.
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