Don't underestimate Sarah Palin
Sarah Palin May Really Win the Debate: What Biden Must Do to Prevent It (Paul Abrams):
Sarah Palin may win the Vice-Presidential debate. This is not spin. Nor is it a matter of low expectations. The Republicans are doing a masterful job of lulling the Obama campaign into a false sense of security that she is very difficult to teach, and that he will win hands-down....
But, how much more clueless is Palin than was George W Bush running against incumbent Governor Ann Richards or Al Gore? And, they both had the same teacher: Karl Rove.
Biden does not need coaching on the issues. What he does need is a strategy for the debate. How is he going to handle the following advantages for Palin that play into her winning the debate...[continued]
Palin's Debate Strategy and How Biden Can Beat It (Eric Schmeltzer).
Why Sarah Palin Is A Better Debater Than You Think (Jed Report):
Sarah Palin might not give a good interview, and John McCain's advisers might not trust her to give a press conference, but in a highly structured debate like the one we are going to see on Thursday night, she has the ability to be dominant.
Because the format allows for very little give-and-take between Palin and Joe Biden, her "values"-oriented debating style stands a good chance of succeeding. The central feature of her debate style is that rather than getting bogged down in facts and specifics, she instead says what she is for and what she is against using terms like "healthier," "stronger," "more prosperous," and "fairer."
Andrew Halcro, who has debated her, explains his experiences debating Palin:I've debated Governor Palin more than two dozen times. And she's a master, not of facts, figures, or insightful policy recommendations, but at the fine art of the nonanswer, the glittering generality. Against such charms there is little Senator Biden, or anyone, can do.
That sounds like a backhanded compliment, and perhaps it is, but that doesn't change the fact that Palin's debating style works, as you can see for yourself in this video that I edited together.
For the video, I looked at her past debates and randomly grabbed six answers that I thought were pretty good. These weren't cherry-picked answers, they were just the first six answers that I thought she handled effectively. (I only rejected one answer in which I felt she was too defensive about her experience.)
Given the debate's format on Thursday night, I expect Palin will do just fine. I will be quite surprised if she gets caught off guard or has a moose-in-headlights moment.
I don't think she'll display much in the way of specifics, but she will get the values-oriented language right, and that should be good enough at least for a draw, and that will mean she beats expectations.
Of course, the real political issue in the debate isn't whether or not Palin meets or beats expectations, it's whether she is able to make a case for John McCain that John McCain hasn't yet been able to make for himself.
That's something no vice presidential candidate in history has been able to do, and should serve as a reminder that in the end, this election is still between Barack Obama and John McCain.
Past Debates Show a Confident Palin, at Times Fluent but Often Vague (NYT).
Underestimate Palin at your own risk, former rivals say (LA Times): With Thursday's vice presidential debate approaching, ex-aides and opponents of the Alaska governor recall her skill at jabbing with a smile, even if she wasn't always focused on learning the issues.
During Palin's brief exposure to the high-stakes environment of political debates, she has unnerved both her handlers and her opponents. At times she has been handicapped by her lax approach to learning the nuances of policy and state issues, but she has also projected a Reaganesque ability to offer up pithy answers and charm on camera.
"The political landscape here is littered with people who have underestimated Sarah Palin," said Eric Croft, a former state representative who ran for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2006 and appeared with Palin during several early forums.
Palin's split-personality debate persona -- mirrored in her confident speech to the Republican convention in Minneapolis in early September and in a series of wobbly performances in recent television interviews -- poses a challenge for her Democratic opponent, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, as Thursday's nationally telecast vice presidential debate in St. Louis approaches.
Biden could face trouble, Alaskan political observers said, if he takes Palin too lightly. But he also has to take care not to be overly aggressive against a candidate who radiates telegenic appeal.
"She has a Reagan-like ability to win over audiences. But for someone who cares about issues and facts, it was rather startling to see her gloss over important questions," said Andrew Halcro, an Alaska businessman who ran as an independent candidate for governor against Palin....
As she began her run for governor of Alaska, Palin repeatedly proved difficult to prep for a debate, recalled her two former political aides, who had pivotal roles during her campaign but declined to be identified because of their continuing involvement in Alaska politics.
Palin, the former aides said, had a sharply limited attention span for absorbing the facts and policy angles required for all-topics debate preparation. Staffers were rarely able to get her to sit for more than half an hour of background work at a time before her concentration waned, hindered by cellphone calls and family affairs. "We were always fighting for her attention," said one of the aides.
In mid-October 2006, Palin's staffers saw their worries justified in the first political forum of the campaign season, an event at Anchorage's 49 Supper Club, where candidates unveiled their stump speeches before a room filled with political players. The former Wasilla mayor breezed through an upbeat speech about "taking back Alaska" but struggled during a question-and-answer session.
"To her credit, she gave a lot of 'I don't knows,' " one former aide recalled. "But it was clear she didn't start out with a great range of knowledge about Alaskan affairs."
In the weeks that followed, Palin's senior campaign aides took care not to let her repeat the dismal performance. "I was always frustrated because 30 minutes before game time, I'd want to say, 'Let's turn off the phone and lock the door. And please calm down,' " one of her former aides said.
But as time went on, Palin increasingly managed to zero in on the policy issues set before her during debate preparations, and her comfort level rose dramatically. During two final debates broadcast by Alaska public television and an Anchorage news station, Palin appeared to ace her performances, deftly crystallizing her talking points for voters.
"If you can sit her down, she has a talent for listening to a policy presentation that is so boring it would bring tears to your eyes," the aide said. "Then -- boom -- she will nail it down to its essence."
Palin often toted index cards when she walked out in front of the cameras, cribbing from them when the cameras were on her rivals. "She'd carry these cards with her like she was cramming for a test," Halcro said.
Her debate strategists also warned Palin not to stray onto such hot-button topics as creationism and same-sex marriage. On questionnaires sent to socially conservative activists, Palin backed "intelligent design" alternatives to the theory of evolution and opposed nontraditional unions. But she managed to avoid those subjects during most of the debates.
Palin remained so low-key that even her pollster, David Dittman, confessed he was unaware of her strong Christian conservative tenets. "I didn't know what she believed in," he said. "We never had any discussions about it, and from our polls, Alaska voters had the same impression."
By the final key televised debate in late October, Palin had grown used to the format, her aides and rivals recalled. Still using index cards, she was breezily confident in her back-and-forth with Halcro and former Alaska Gov. Tony Knowles.
Palin had ready answers on tough questions about social concerns such as native needs, abortion and assisted suicide. Sometimes her remarks seemed glib, but she was usually poised and sometimes kicked back at her opponents and questioners when they took the offensive.
Larry Persily, a panelist questioner in the campaign's final televised debate, said Palin flummoxed her rivals "like Muhammad Ali dancing around the ring." She avoided statements and tough questions that could have impaled her and repeatedly stung her opponents. And Palin, a former sportscaster, was easily the most comfortable in front of the camera. "She knows television," said Persily, who participated in other debates and has watched Palin closely for years. "She knows how to look at her interviewer."
Palin saved her most devastating riposte for the final question of the debate, when Persily asked the three candidates whether they would hire their opponents for a state job.
Knowles and Halcro offered halting jokes. But when it was Palin's turn, she pounced.
Smiling at Halcro, who recited reams of statistics by rote, Palin observed that the businessman "would make the most awesome statistician the state could ever look for."
As the debate audience laughed, Palin pivoted to Knowles, who had owned an Anchorage restaurant. "Do they need a chef down in Juneau?" Palin asked, smiling as she twisted the verbal knife. "I know Mr. Knowles is really good at that."
Two years on, Halcro and Knowles admit they are still baffled by how their mastery of policy and state issues was trumped by Palin's breezy confidence and feel-good answers.
"When you try to prove she doesn't know anything, you lose, because audiences are enraptured by her," Halcro said. "And her biting comments give you a sense of how competitive she is. Anybody who doesn't take her seriously does so at their peril."
Media Must Raise, Not Lower The Bar For Palin For Thursday's Debate (Brian Ross, ABC)
Sarah Palin may win the Vice-Presidential debate. This is not spin. Nor is it a matter of low expectations. The Republicans are doing a masterful job of lulling the Obama campaign into a false sense of security that she is very difficult to teach, and that he will win hands-down....
But, how much more clueless is Palin than was George W Bush running against incumbent Governor Ann Richards or Al Gore? And, they both had the same teacher: Karl Rove.
Biden does not need coaching on the issues. What he does need is a strategy for the debate. How is he going to handle the following advantages for Palin that play into her winning the debate...[continued]
Palin's Debate Strategy and How Biden Can Beat It (Eric Schmeltzer).
Why Sarah Palin Is A Better Debater Than You Think (Jed Report):
Sarah Palin might not give a good interview, and John McCain's advisers might not trust her to give a press conference, but in a highly structured debate like the one we are going to see on Thursday night, she has the ability to be dominant.
Because the format allows for very little give-and-take between Palin and Joe Biden, her "values"-oriented debating style stands a good chance of succeeding. The central feature of her debate style is that rather than getting bogged down in facts and specifics, she instead says what she is for and what she is against using terms like "healthier," "stronger," "more prosperous," and "fairer."
Andrew Halcro, who has debated her, explains his experiences debating Palin:I've debated Governor Palin more than two dozen times. And she's a master, not of facts, figures, or insightful policy recommendations, but at the fine art of the nonanswer, the glittering generality. Against such charms there is little Senator Biden, or anyone, can do.
That sounds like a backhanded compliment, and perhaps it is, but that doesn't change the fact that Palin's debating style works, as you can see for yourself in this video that I edited together.
For the video, I looked at her past debates and randomly grabbed six answers that I thought were pretty good. These weren't cherry-picked answers, they were just the first six answers that I thought she handled effectively. (I only rejected one answer in which I felt she was too defensive about her experience.)
Click to viewGiven the debate's format on Thursday night, I expect Palin will do just fine. I will be quite surprised if she gets caught off guard or has a moose-in-headlights moment.
I don't think she'll display much in the way of specifics, but she will get the values-oriented language right, and that should be good enough at least for a draw, and that will mean she beats expectations.
Of course, the real political issue in the debate isn't whether or not Palin meets or beats expectations, it's whether she is able to make a case for John McCain that John McCain hasn't yet been able to make for himself.
That's something no vice presidential candidate in history has been able to do, and should serve as a reminder that in the end, this election is still between Barack Obama and John McCain.
Past Debates Show a Confident Palin, at Times Fluent but Often Vague (NYT).
Underestimate Palin at your own risk, former rivals say (LA Times): With Thursday's vice presidential debate approaching, ex-aides and opponents of the Alaska governor recall her skill at jabbing with a smile, even if she wasn't always focused on learning the issues.
During Palin's brief exposure to the high-stakes environment of political debates, she has unnerved both her handlers and her opponents. At times she has been handicapped by her lax approach to learning the nuances of policy and state issues, but she has also projected a Reaganesque ability to offer up pithy answers and charm on camera.
"The political landscape here is littered with people who have underestimated Sarah Palin," said Eric Croft, a former state representative who ran for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2006 and appeared with Palin during several early forums.
Palin's split-personality debate persona -- mirrored in her confident speech to the Republican convention in Minneapolis in early September and in a series of wobbly performances in recent television interviews -- poses a challenge for her Democratic opponent, Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, as Thursday's nationally telecast vice presidential debate in St. Louis approaches.
Biden could face trouble, Alaskan political observers said, if he takes Palin too lightly. But he also has to take care not to be overly aggressive against a candidate who radiates telegenic appeal.
"She has a Reagan-like ability to win over audiences. But for someone who cares about issues and facts, it was rather startling to see her gloss over important questions," said Andrew Halcro, an Alaska businessman who ran as an independent candidate for governor against Palin....
As she began her run for governor of Alaska, Palin repeatedly proved difficult to prep for a debate, recalled her two former political aides, who had pivotal roles during her campaign but declined to be identified because of their continuing involvement in Alaska politics.
Palin, the former aides said, had a sharply limited attention span for absorbing the facts and policy angles required for all-topics debate preparation. Staffers were rarely able to get her to sit for more than half an hour of background work at a time before her concentration waned, hindered by cellphone calls and family affairs. "We were always fighting for her attention," said one of the aides.
In mid-October 2006, Palin's staffers saw their worries justified in the first political forum of the campaign season, an event at Anchorage's 49 Supper Club, where candidates unveiled their stump speeches before a room filled with political players. The former Wasilla mayor breezed through an upbeat speech about "taking back Alaska" but struggled during a question-and-answer session.
"To her credit, she gave a lot of 'I don't knows,' " one former aide recalled. "But it was clear she didn't start out with a great range of knowledge about Alaskan affairs."
In the weeks that followed, Palin's senior campaign aides took care not to let her repeat the dismal performance. "I was always frustrated because 30 minutes before game time, I'd want to say, 'Let's turn off the phone and lock the door. And please calm down,' " one of her former aides said.
But as time went on, Palin increasingly managed to zero in on the policy issues set before her during debate preparations, and her comfort level rose dramatically. During two final debates broadcast by Alaska public television and an Anchorage news station, Palin appeared to ace her performances, deftly crystallizing her talking points for voters.
"If you can sit her down, she has a talent for listening to a policy presentation that is so boring it would bring tears to your eyes," the aide said. "Then -- boom -- she will nail it down to its essence."
Palin often toted index cards when she walked out in front of the cameras, cribbing from them when the cameras were on her rivals. "She'd carry these cards with her like she was cramming for a test," Halcro said.
Her debate strategists also warned Palin not to stray onto such hot-button topics as creationism and same-sex marriage. On questionnaires sent to socially conservative activists, Palin backed "intelligent design" alternatives to the theory of evolution and opposed nontraditional unions. But she managed to avoid those subjects during most of the debates.
Palin remained so low-key that even her pollster, David Dittman, confessed he was unaware of her strong Christian conservative tenets. "I didn't know what she believed in," he said. "We never had any discussions about it, and from our polls, Alaska voters had the same impression."
By the final key televised debate in late October, Palin had grown used to the format, her aides and rivals recalled. Still using index cards, she was breezily confident in her back-and-forth with Halcro and former Alaska Gov. Tony Knowles.
Palin had ready answers on tough questions about social concerns such as native needs, abortion and assisted suicide. Sometimes her remarks seemed glib, but she was usually poised and sometimes kicked back at her opponents and questioners when they took the offensive.
Larry Persily, a panelist questioner in the campaign's final televised debate, said Palin flummoxed her rivals "like Muhammad Ali dancing around the ring." She avoided statements and tough questions that could have impaled her and repeatedly stung her opponents. And Palin, a former sportscaster, was easily the most comfortable in front of the camera. "She knows television," said Persily, who participated in other debates and has watched Palin closely for years. "She knows how to look at her interviewer."
Palin saved her most devastating riposte for the final question of the debate, when Persily asked the three candidates whether they would hire their opponents for a state job.
Knowles and Halcro offered halting jokes. But when it was Palin's turn, she pounced.
Smiling at Halcro, who recited reams of statistics by rote, Palin observed that the businessman "would make the most awesome statistician the state could ever look for."
As the debate audience laughed, Palin pivoted to Knowles, who had owned an Anchorage restaurant. "Do they need a chef down in Juneau?" Palin asked, smiling as she twisted the verbal knife. "I know Mr. Knowles is really good at that."
Two years on, Halcro and Knowles admit they are still baffled by how their mastery of policy and state issues was trumped by Palin's breezy confidence and feel-good answers.
"When you try to prove she doesn't know anything, you lose, because audiences are enraptured by her," Halcro said. "And her biting comments give you a sense of how competitive she is. Anybody who doesn't take her seriously does so at their peril."
Media Must Raise, Not Lower The Bar For Palin For Thursday's Debate (Brian Ross, ABC)