'Sources' Say EU To Come Out Against Mononational FYROM Devolution Referendum
Gordana Duvnjak, Utrinski Vesnik: "Europe Is Going To Put Pressure on Us Over the Referendum"
Europe only appears to be silently following the strained situation created by the new territorial organization in Macedonia, but this does not mean that it has no position on the Macedonian referendum. Despite Brussels' official position that this is an "internal issue," Utrinski Vesnik has learned from high-ranking diplomatic sources that, on the contrary, through its senior officials, the European Union will inform the citizens of the Republic of Macedonia and the political elites of its strong and unequivocal position on the forthcoming referendum. This means that Europe is going to categorically come out against the mononational referendums, whether they be organized by the Macedonian or Albanian side, because it feels that they would only destabilize Macedonia.
This denouement of the Macedonian situation, caused by the government's municipal demarcation concept, is not viewed as a position leading to realistic democratic progress, but rather as an additional opportunity to aggravate what is already an unfavorable situation, which will make us stray even more from our path toward the European Union.
Europe feels that the votes cast by over 850,000 citizens would generate new challenges and tensions for Macedonia, disrupting the fragile interethnic confidence, which is already seriously disrupted, even further.
The European Union's current silence, our sources say, is mainly attributed to the existing dilemmas in European diplomatic circles over the manner in which to announce this categorical position to Macedonia. Should this be done directly without the usual diplomatic tact, or should it let commonsense prevail in Macedonia, allowing the citizens, through the referendum's possible failure, to realize on their own that this is nothing but unnecessary luxury?
If the EU opts for the first option, applying the frequently used diplomatic principle known in international law as the "carrot and the stick," Macedonia would feel the first signals on its back as early as this autumn, when the application questionnaire is due to arrive. According to the most pessimistic option, the desired answer will not even reach Skopje within this timeframe, whereas according to the second scenario, which is also unfavorable, the arrival of the application questionnaire will be indefinitely postponed, and this will be more than a clear signal about the EU's position. The receipt of the European "carrot" as a reward for enforcing a reasonable solution, translated into our language, would mean that Macedonia could receive the desired questionnaire with 3,500-4,000 questions as early as October or November at the latest, together with a preliminary date for submitting our candidature, which would take place in 2006 or 2007. As a small country with a huge desire to join the European family, for us, that would mean the more intensive opening of the valves of European funds, which would facilitate our country's more successful preparation for full-fledged membership, which, provided things go well, could be expected some time around 2010 or 2015 at the latest. Some of the countries in our close surroundings, derived from the former Yugoslavia, have already felt the insistence on such standards on their backs. And, while in Slovenia's case, things went relatively smoothly and without problems, Croatia could have easily felt the "full force of the stick" if the cooperation with The Hague Tribunal and the reintegration of the Serbian refugees had been brought into question.
Even though the civic initiative institute is not unknown to Europe, but rather quite the contrary, it is a frequent democratic method for articulating national will, the EU's unfavorable position on this current issue in Macedonia suggests that the referendum is seen as a harmful solution, which could generate a serious threat of fresh interethnic tensions.
Certain European representatives in the country have already commented on a few occasions on the process of decentralization in Macedonia, and the tone with which the messages were conveyed depended on the speaker's subtlety and tact.
In his farewell meeting with journalists before taking up his new office, EU special envoy Soren Jessen-Petersen cautioned that, without the decentralization, Macedonia's EU membership prospects would suffer. Before the journalists, he expressed open reservations toward the civic initiative to gather 150,000 signatures, emphasizing that, if the referendum turned out to be successful, that would mean a step back for Macedonia. According to Petersen, the territorial organization was one of the most important obligations stemming from the Ohrid accord, but not the last one that need to be implemented. In a similar tone was the statement by Javier Solana, EU high representative for common foreign policy and security, who, during his recent meeting with Macedonian President Branko Crvenkovski in Brussels, said that a possible referendum would slow down the Framework Agreement, although its implementation could not be prevented.
Speaking of our country's perspectives in the context of resolving Kosovo's status, which would be decided next year, Nicholas White, director of the International Crisis Group, stated a month ago that Macedonia had to resolve all its internal issues before launching that process.
Europe only appears to be silently following the strained situation created by the new territorial organization in Macedonia, but this does not mean that it has no position on the Macedonian referendum. Despite Brussels' official position that this is an "internal issue," Utrinski Vesnik has learned from high-ranking diplomatic sources that, on the contrary, through its senior officials, the European Union will inform the citizens of the Republic of Macedonia and the political elites of its strong and unequivocal position on the forthcoming referendum. This means that Europe is going to categorically come out against the mononational referendums, whether they be organized by the Macedonian or Albanian side, because it feels that they would only destabilize Macedonia.
This denouement of the Macedonian situation, caused by the government's municipal demarcation concept, is not viewed as a position leading to realistic democratic progress, but rather as an additional opportunity to aggravate what is already an unfavorable situation, which will make us stray even more from our path toward the European Union.
Europe feels that the votes cast by over 850,000 citizens would generate new challenges and tensions for Macedonia, disrupting the fragile interethnic confidence, which is already seriously disrupted, even further.
The European Union's current silence, our sources say, is mainly attributed to the existing dilemmas in European diplomatic circles over the manner in which to announce this categorical position to Macedonia. Should this be done directly without the usual diplomatic tact, or should it let commonsense prevail in Macedonia, allowing the citizens, through the referendum's possible failure, to realize on their own that this is nothing but unnecessary luxury?
If the EU opts for the first option, applying the frequently used diplomatic principle known in international law as the "carrot and the stick," Macedonia would feel the first signals on its back as early as this autumn, when the application questionnaire is due to arrive. According to the most pessimistic option, the desired answer will not even reach Skopje within this timeframe, whereas according to the second scenario, which is also unfavorable, the arrival of the application questionnaire will be indefinitely postponed, and this will be more than a clear signal about the EU's position. The receipt of the European "carrot" as a reward for enforcing a reasonable solution, translated into our language, would mean that Macedonia could receive the desired questionnaire with 3,500-4,000 questions as early as October or November at the latest, together with a preliminary date for submitting our candidature, which would take place in 2006 or 2007. As a small country with a huge desire to join the European family, for us, that would mean the more intensive opening of the valves of European funds, which would facilitate our country's more successful preparation for full-fledged membership, which, provided things go well, could be expected some time around 2010 or 2015 at the latest. Some of the countries in our close surroundings, derived from the former Yugoslavia, have already felt the insistence on such standards on their backs. And, while in Slovenia's case, things went relatively smoothly and without problems, Croatia could have easily felt the "full force of the stick" if the cooperation with The Hague Tribunal and the reintegration of the Serbian refugees had been brought into question.
Even though the civic initiative institute is not unknown to Europe, but rather quite the contrary, it is a frequent democratic method for articulating national will, the EU's unfavorable position on this current issue in Macedonia suggests that the referendum is seen as a harmful solution, which could generate a serious threat of fresh interethnic tensions.
Certain European representatives in the country have already commented on a few occasions on the process of decentralization in Macedonia, and the tone with which the messages were conveyed depended on the speaker's subtlety and tact.
In his farewell meeting with journalists before taking up his new office, EU special envoy Soren Jessen-Petersen cautioned that, without the decentralization, Macedonia's EU membership prospects would suffer. Before the journalists, he expressed open reservations toward the civic initiative to gather 150,000 signatures, emphasizing that, if the referendum turned out to be successful, that would mean a step back for Macedonia. According to Petersen, the territorial organization was one of the most important obligations stemming from the Ohrid accord, but not the last one that need to be implemented. In a similar tone was the statement by Javier Solana, EU high representative for common foreign policy and security, who, during his recent meeting with Macedonian President Branko Crvenkovski in Brussels, said that a possible referendum would slow down the Framework Agreement, although its implementation could not be prevented.
Speaking of our country's perspectives in the context of resolving Kosovo's status, which would be decided next year, Nicholas White, director of the International Crisis Group, stated a month ago that Macedonia had to resolve all its internal issues before launching that process.