Azerbaijan in yesterday's Washington Post
The Azeri democracy test
By Jackson Diehl
4 July 2005
The Washington Post
Less than six months after President George W. Bush's inaugural address, the tension between his commitment to democracy and longstanding U.S. security and economic commitments grows steadily more acute, especially in the Muslim world. There is the problem of whether to endorse Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's half-baked presidential election; there is the dilemma of Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov, who massacred hundreds of protesters in one town but continues to host a U.S. military base in another.
Next up: Azerbaijan, an oil-rich former Soviet republic on the Caspian Sea that hosts big U.S. oil companies, a new strategic pipeline for their products, a refueling stop for U.S. military planes -- and a government teetering between consolidating a corrupt autocracy and embracing democratic reforms. Lodged between Russia and Iran, Turkey and Central Asia, Azerbaijan resembles Ukraine a year ago, as it performed a similar wobble -- one that ended in a fraudulent election, followed by a democratic revolution. Like former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev -- who was elected amid some blatant ballot-box stuffing two years ago -- has promised to hold free and fair parliamentary elections this November. As it did last year, the Bush administration is trying to push the president to keep his word, without pushing so hard that he ends up in the arms of dictator-friendly Russia or China, or reverses his cooperation with the Pentagon and American oil companies.
Azerbaijan's well-developed political opposition and civil society meanwhile is deliberately modeling itself on the democracy movements of Ukraine and neighboring Georgia. It has built a coalition, chosen a protest color (orange), and united around a demand that the elections be free and fair. If they are not, the opposition will call Azeris to the streets. Already, thousands joined two antigovernment demonstrations in the capital, Baku, last month. The Azeri opposition is not as united or popular as that of Ukraine or Georgia. But the challengers are far better organized and competent than those in many other Muslim countries.
As massive oil revenues begin to flow into Baku, U.S. acceptance of another rigged election this year could cement Mr. Aliyev as just another president-for-life. Administration officials say they understand the risk and have made a fair Azeri election a top policy priority. "We are using every bit of leverage we can muster," one official told me.
After suppressing one opposition rally in May, the government allowed the two last month. It has opened a dialogue with opposition leaders, and there is talk that Mr. Aliyev will agree to debate his opponents on national television. At best, Azerbaijan could deliver a breakthrough for the Bush administration: a historic free election that would end up strengthening its ally Mr. Aliyev. At worst Bush will have to choose this November between another oil-rich autocrat and pro-democracy demonstrators who have taken his inaugural address to heart. Either way, a strategic Muslim country that hasn't gotten much attention in Washington since 2001 will soon be in the spotlight.
By Jackson Diehl
4 July 2005
The Washington Post
Less than six months after President George W. Bush's inaugural address, the tension between his commitment to democracy and longstanding U.S. security and economic commitments grows steadily more acute, especially in the Muslim world. There is the problem of whether to endorse Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's half-baked presidential election; there is the dilemma of Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov, who massacred hundreds of protesters in one town but continues to host a U.S. military base in another.
Next up: Azerbaijan, an oil-rich former Soviet republic on the Caspian Sea that hosts big U.S. oil companies, a new strategic pipeline for their products, a refueling stop for U.S. military planes -- and a government teetering between consolidating a corrupt autocracy and embracing democratic reforms. Lodged between Russia and Iran, Turkey and Central Asia, Azerbaijan resembles Ukraine a year ago, as it performed a similar wobble -- one that ended in a fraudulent election, followed by a democratic revolution. Like former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev -- who was elected amid some blatant ballot-box stuffing two years ago -- has promised to hold free and fair parliamentary elections this November. As it did last year, the Bush administration is trying to push the president to keep his word, without pushing so hard that he ends up in the arms of dictator-friendly Russia or China, or reverses his cooperation with the Pentagon and American oil companies.
Azerbaijan's well-developed political opposition and civil society meanwhile is deliberately modeling itself on the democracy movements of Ukraine and neighboring Georgia. It has built a coalition, chosen a protest color (orange), and united around a demand that the elections be free and fair. If they are not, the opposition will call Azeris to the streets. Already, thousands joined two antigovernment demonstrations in the capital, Baku, last month. The Azeri opposition is not as united or popular as that of Ukraine or Georgia. But the challengers are far better organized and competent than those in many other Muslim countries.
As massive oil revenues begin to flow into Baku, U.S. acceptance of another rigged election this year could cement Mr. Aliyev as just another president-for-life. Administration officials say they understand the risk and have made a fair Azeri election a top policy priority. "We are using every bit of leverage we can muster," one official told me.
After suppressing one opposition rally in May, the government allowed the two last month. It has opened a dialogue with opposition leaders, and there is talk that Mr. Aliyev will agree to debate his opponents on national television. At best, Azerbaijan could deliver a breakthrough for the Bush administration: a historic free election that would end up strengthening its ally Mr. Aliyev. At worst Bush will have to choose this November between another oil-rich autocrat and pro-democracy demonstrators who have taken his inaugural address to heart. Either way, a strategic Muslim country that hasn't gotten much attention in Washington since 2001 will soon be in the spotlight.