There was one serious chance for a Cyprus settlement, and it failed when the EU decided that it would admit Cyprus regardless of the outcome of the 2004 referendum.
Underlying problem #1: the status quo is fine for the Greeks and tolerable for the Turks. Nobody's being immiserated, nobody's economy is tanking -- or at least, not because of the division. So there's a moderate level of motivation to negotiate on the Turkish side, and really not much on the Greek. Put another way, not that many people really *want* reunification; and many of those that do, don't want it all that badly.
Underlying problem #2, it's just too easy for hardliners on both sides to act as spoilers. We saw that in 2004.
Underlying problem #3, the Turkish side is divided between TRNC and Turkey, and so Turkish negotiations are regularly distorted by Turkish foreign policy interests and the political currents that swirl through Ankara.
There are others, but those will do for starts. TLDR, I'll be astonished if anything significant happens there in (say) the next five years, and I won't be at all surprised if reunification doesn't happen in our lifetimes.
Underlying problem #1: the status quo is fine for the Greeks and tolerable for the Turks. Nobody's being immiserated, nobody's economy is tanking -- or at least, not because of the division. So there's a moderate level of motivation to negotiate on the Turkish side, and really not much on the Greek. Put another way, not that many people really *want* reunification; and many of those that do, don't want it all that badly.
Underlying problem #2, it's just too easy for hardliners on both sides to act as spoilers. We saw that in 2004.
Underlying problem #3, the Turkish side is divided between TRNC and Turkey, and so Turkish negotiations are regularly distorted by Turkish foreign policy interests and the political currents that swirl through Ankara.
There are others, but those will do for starts. TLDR, I'll be astonished if anything significant happens there in (say) the next five years, and I won't be at all surprised if reunification doesn't happen in our lifetimes.
Doug M.
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